Global Financial Stability Report: Vaccines Inoculate Markets, but Policy Support Is Still Needed

Proshare

Friday, January 29, 2021 / 11:59 AM / By IMF / Header Image Credit: Twitter; @IMFLive


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


The Global Financial Stability Update at a Glance

  • Approval and rollout of vaccines have boosted expectations of a global recovery and lifted risk asset prices, despite rising COVID-19 cases and softening economic activity in late 2020.
  • Until vaccines are widely available, the market rally and the economic recovery remain predicated on continued monetary and fiscal policy support. Inequitable distribution of vaccines risks exacerbating financial vulnerabilities, especially for frontier market economies.
  • An ongoing rebound of portfolio flows provides better financing options for emerging market economies facing large rollover needs in 2021.
  • Policy accommodation has mitigated liquidity strains so far, but solvency pressures may resurface in the near future, especially in riskier segments of credit markets and sectors hit hard by the pandemic. Credit concerns and profitability challenges in the low-interest-rate environment may weigh on banks' ability and willingness to lend in the future.
  • Policymakers should continue to provide support until a sustainable recovery takes hold: under-delivery may jeopardize the healing of the global economy. However, with investors betting on a persistent policy backstop and a sense of complacency permeating markets as asset valuations rise further, policymakers should be cognizant of the risks of a market correction.
  • With monetary policy anticipated to remain accommodative in coming years, policymakers should address rising vulnerabilities to avoid putting growth at risk in the medium term.

 

A Policy Bridge to the Vaccine

Financial markets have looked beyond the global resurgence of COVID-19 cases

Announcements and rollout of vaccines have boosted hopes of a global economic recovery in 2021 and pushed risk asset prices higher. The speed of the recovery will depend crucially on production, distribution networks, and access to vaccines. As discussed in the January 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, continued monetary and fiscal support remain vital to lessen lingering uncertainties, build a bridge to the recovery, and ensure financial stability.

 

Risks to the baseline could threaten financial stability in some sectors and regions

A delay in the recovery would require prolonged accommodation, further fueling financial vulnerabilities. Uneven vaccine distribution and asynchronous recovery could imperil capital flows to emerging market economies, especially if advanced economies were to begin to normalize policy, and some countries could face daunting challenges. An asset price correction, should investors suddenly reassess growth prospects or the policy outlook, could interact with elevated vulnerabilities, creating knock-on effects on confidence and jeopardizing macro-financial stability.

 

Finally, Some Good News

Announcements of earlier-than-anticipated effective COVID-19 vaccines have boosted market sentiment and paved the way for the global economic recovery

Industries such as airlines, hospitality, and consumer services rebounded in late 2020 as investors rotated into these previously battered sectors in search of value (Figure 1). Stock prices of smaller firms, including in clean energy, also benefitted. In advanced economies, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bond spreads have tightened sharply-close to or even below pre-February 2020 levels-while rates have reached record lows, as investors continue to reach for yield. Spreads of emerging market sovereign debt have exhibited a similar compression dynamic.


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

Financial markets have shrugged off the most recent softening in economic activity

The surge of COVID-19 infections and associated stringency measures since late 2020 have adversely affected economic activity in many countries, pointing to a possible slowdown in the fourth quarter (see the January 2021 WEO Update). Yet, despite persistent uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook, investors appear to remain confident about growth prospects in 2021, betting that continued policy support will offset any possible near-term disappointment. The much discussed disconnect between financial markets and the economy persists. Despite the recent rise in US long-end rates, market participants point to expectations of very low rates over coming years and upward revisions in earnings expectations since the vaccine announcements as justification for the market rally (Figure 2).


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

Vaccine access is likely to be uneven, and equitable distribution may take time

Many advanced economies, such as Canada, some European Union countries, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have prepurchased vaccines,with large per capita coverage. By contrast, procurement of vaccine doses for emerging market and developing economies via direct negotiation or through the multilateral COVAX pillar lag significantly. The need for access to vaccines is particularly urgent in countries where cases have accelerated recently or remain very high (Figure 3).

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd. 


No Global Financial Crisis to Date: Don't Turn It into One!

 

Delayed access to comprehensive health care solutions could mean an incomplete global recovery and endanger the global financial system

With emerging market economies accounting for about 65 percent of global growth (about 40 percent excluding China) over 2017-19, delays in tackling the pandemic in such countries may bode ill for the global economy.  Supply chain disruptions could affect corporate profitability even in regions where the pandemic is under control. And because growth is a crucial ingredient for financial stability, an uneven and partial recovery risks jeopardizing the health of the financial system.

 

Emerging markets have large financing needs

Large and persistent fiscal deficits in most emerging and frontier market economies are likely to persist in 2021, albeit to a smaller extent than in 2020. In the baseline WEO scenario of continued easy financial conditions, market financing will remain a significant source of funding, as it has been in recent months (Figure 4).

 

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

The resumption of portfolio flows is central to the stability of many emerging market economies (Figure 5); retaining market access is essential. An uneven global economic recovery because of delayed health care and vaccine solutions may present a formidable challenge for emerging and frontier economies. With some countries already constrained by limited policy space, especially where access to capital markets is still not fully restored, the prospect of higher long-term rates in advanced economies as central banks find themselves closer to policy normalization may jeopardize the rollover of large external financing needs (Figure 6).

 

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

While solvency pressures have been limited so far, risks in the nonfinancial corporate sector remain

Reflecting unprecedented policy support, spreads have recovered almost entirely, even in the sub-investment-grade sector, although sectoral differences persist (Figure 7).

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

Default rates at large firms have remained well below previous peaks, and bankruptcies among smaller firms have stayed low or even declined in some cases. However, challenges remain. For example, the number of potential "fallen angels" (that is, firms with a BBB minus rating and negative outlook) has tripled globally since the beginning of the pandemic, and in some jurisdictions (for example, the European Union and the United States) the potential for further downgrades is elevated (Figure 8).

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

In China, defaults by state-owned enterprises in the last quarter of 2020 suggest that addressing financial vulnerabilities continues to be a priority. Ultimately, the health of the global corporate sector will depend critically on the evolution of the pandemic and on the extent and duration of policy support. 

Should investors reassess the prospects for economic growth and the outlook for monetary and fiscal policy, liquidity pressures, and the risk of such pressures morphing into insolvencies, may resurface.

 

Household debt may rise, on the back of  accommodative financial conditions

So far, strains in the household sectors have been mitigated by significant government support and relief programs as well as by declines in interest rates, which have reduced the debt service load. But poorer and marginalized households have been substantially more affected than others. This suggests that vulnerabilities are unevenly distributed among some households, and financial stress may rise if policy support is withdrawn too early or there is an incomplete economic recovery.


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd. 


Banks have not been part of the problem so far

Banks entered the pandemic with a large amount of capital and high liquidity buffers and have shown resilience so far, and unprecedented policy support has helped maintain the flow of credit to households and firms. However, profitability challenges in the low-interest rate environment call into question banks' ability or willingness to continue to lend in coming quarters. Banks may be concerned about rising credit exposures and increasing nonperforming loans once policy support measures end, especially where the recovery may be delayed or incomplete. Banks may also face challenges in generating returns above the cost of equity amid continued compression of net interest margins, a development long evident in Japan and Europe (Figure 9).

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

Underwriting standards for nonfinancial firms have tightened in some instances (Figure 10) and bank loan growth in many countries has remained low or slowed in recent months (Figure 11).

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Inflows to investment funds have resumed on the back of improving market sentiment

The imperative to put cash to work in a buoyant market environment have driven investors to reach for yield. Between March and November 2020, fixed income funds registered cumulative inflows of about $280 billion, $230 billion of which poured in since the beginning of September (Figure 12).

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

However, vulnerabilities in investment funds continue to be a concern: stretched asset valuations expose investment funds to the risk of a price correction, and liquidity and maturity mismatches remain largely unaddressed.

 

Capital markets are gaining importance as a source of funding to combat climate change and achieve social goals, and they can play a crucial role in greening the recovery

Greater awareness of the need for social spending, likely related to efforts to fight the pandemic, led to a very large increase in social bond issuance in 2020.

Debtors have tapped into sustainable finance sources, with sustainable debt issuance in 2020 set to surpass the 2019 record at more than $650 billion (Figure 13).

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd. 


Once More Unto the Breach

Ongoing policy support remains necessary until a sustainable recovery takes hold to prevent the pandemic crisis from posing a threat to the global financial system

The global community should strive for multilateral cooperation in equitable vaccine development and delivery across the world to ensure an even and complete economic recovery. Policymakers should safeguard the progress made so far and build on the rollout of vaccines to return to sustainable growth. A bridge to the point where vaccines are widely available requires preserving monetary policy accommodation, ensuring liquidity support to households and firms, and keeping financial risks at bay. Underdelivering on policy action risks jeopardizing the recovery, and the IMF and other multilateral institutions stand ready to provider further support should further downside risks materialize.

 

However, policymakers should also be cognizant of the risks of a market correction should investors suddenly reassess growth prospects or the policy outlook

With the recovery still nascent, and inflation still expected to be subdued, monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative for years to come (Figure 14). Asset valuations appear to be stretched in several markets.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

A sense of complacency permeating financial markets as investors seem to bet on a persistent policy backstop and uniform market views raise the risk of a price correction

(Figure 15).

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

A sudden sharp tightening of financial conditions from current very low levels-for example, as a result of a persistent increase in long-term interest rates-could be particularly pernicious should such tightening interact with financial vulnerabilities (Figure 16).

 

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

Financial stability risks are in check so far, but action is needed to address financial vulnerabilities exposed by the crisis.

Policymakers face an intertemporal policy trade-off between continuing to support the recovery until sustainable growth takes hold and addressing financial vulnerabilities that were evident before the pandemic or have emerged since it began. These include rising corporate debt, fragilities in the nonbank financial institutions sector, increasing sovereign debt, market access challenges for some developing economies, and declining profitability in some banking systems. Employing macroprudential policies to tackle these vulnerabilities is crucial to avoid putting growth at risk in the medium term.


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd. 


Related News

1.      Global Financial Stability Report Update: Financial Conditions Have Eased, but Insolvencies Loom

2.     WEO January 2021: Policy Support and Vaccines Expected to Lift Activity

3.     WEO: A Long and Difficult Ascent - Global Growth Projected at -4.4% in 2020

4.     African Statistical Yearbook 2020: Africa Experienced Strong GDP Growth from 2000 to 2019

5.     Legally Speaking, is Digital Money Really Money?

6.     World Bank Plans to Invest over $5bn in Drylands in Africa

7.     How Countries Are Performing on the Road to Recovery

8.     World Bank Appears Less Optimistic About Growth Prospects Across the Globe

9.     Corruption and COVID-19: The Pandemic Has Heightened The Importance of Stronger Governance

10.  Global Output Expected to Expand by 4% in 2021, Still Below Pre-Pandemic Trend

11.   AfDB Takes Steps to Accelerate the Circular Economy in Africa

12.  African Development Bank's Board of Directors Approves the Bank's Borrowing Program for 2021

13.  Glaciers of Global Finance: The Currency Composition of Central Banks' Reserve Holdings

14.  What to do When Low-for-Long Interest Rates are Lower and for Longer

15.  World Bank Group to Boost Nigeria's Efforts to Reduce Poverty

16.  IMF Staff Completes 2020 Article IV Mission to Nigeria

17.  Open Trade and Economic Inclusion Key to Post-COVID Recovery

18.  AfDB's AgriPitch Competition Awards $120,000 in Prizes to African Youth Agripreneurs

19.  Bridging the Digital Divide to Scale Up the COVID-19 Recovery

20. AfDB, AIF Founding Partners Announce Postponement of the Africa Investment Forum to 2021

21.  Remittance Flows to Shrink 14% by 2021 Due to COVID-19

22. How COVID-19 Will Increase Inequality in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

23. SSA October 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: A Difficult Road to Recovery


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

READ MORE:
Related News
SCROLL TO TOP