Cement Companies H1 2021 Results: Paving New Paths

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Thursday, September 23, 2021/7:05 PM/By Adaeze Nwachukwu, Proshare Research/Header Image Credit: EcoGraphics

 


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The cement market rebounded in H1 2021 Post COVID-19, supported by increase demand despite the reduction in real disposable income. The H1 2021 performance of the major players in the product market supports this argument.

 

Going Technical

The technical analysis provides investors insight in evaluating and identifying trading opportunities majorly the historical movement of the share price of an equity. In the case of the big players in the cement market, the price of the stocks was correlated to check how risky having the stocks in an investment portfolio is and take a decision accordingly. The correlation between DANGCEM and BUACEMENT was negative at -0.37, this means that their prices generally moved in the opposite direction. However, for DANGCEM, BUACEMENT, and Lafarge Africa, both pairs had positive and weak correlation at 0.25 and 0.37 respectively.

 

Investors seeking to establish a well-diversified portfolio will frequently seek out equities with negative correlation, which means that if one portion of the portfolio falls in value, others must rise.

 

Movements of DANGCEM's Share Price and ASI Index

The Year-to-date (YTD) movement of DANGCEM's share price has been volatile, with the price of the equity reaching its lowest in May 2021 and having a bullish flag between June and August. With the NGX All Share Index (ASI), the share price of the company have not moved in the same direction for most of the trading session under review, the correlation between them is positive but weak at 0.23.

 

One major factor that has driven increased trading of the stock has been the share buyback program by Dangote Cement Plc which started in December 2020. The Group has completed Tranche 1 of the program and a renewal of the program commenced on July 9, 2021.

 

The YTD return for DANGCEM is 0.00% as of 3 September 2021 and has an average price of N228.72 during the period (see chart 1 below).

 

 

Chart 1: YTD Movement in DANGCEM's Share Price and ASI Index as of 3rd Sept 2021

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Source: NGX, Proshare Research

 

Movements of WAPCO's Share Price and ASI Index

Lafarge Africa's share price movement has been relatively flat and inconsistent with the movement of the ASI. The company's stock saw increased trading in Q1 2021, this was after the company said it would divest its 35% shareholding in Continental Blue Invest Ghana Limited.

 

The YTD return of the equity settled at +4.76% as of 3 September 2021 with an average price of N22.39. The correlation between the share price and the NGX ASI was positive and strong at 0.79 (see chart 2 below).

 

Chart 2: YTD Movement in WAPCO's Share Price and ASI Index as of 3rd Sept 2021

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Source: NGX, Proshare Research

 

Movements of BUACEMENT's Share Price and ASI Index

The YTD share price movement of BUACEMENT reflects choppiness and suggests a 'bearish flag' movement. Between August and 3 September 2021, the equity price of the company has been flat trading at N68, its lowest since January 2021.

 

The YTD return was negative at -3.41%. Its ASI correlation was positive but weak at 0.46 (see chart 3 below).

 

Chart 3: YTD Movement in BUACEMENT's Share Price and ASI Index as of 3rd Sept 2021

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Source: NGX, Proshare Research

 

Understanding the Fundamentals

Dangote Cement remains the clear leader of the pack, as seen in industry financials for H1 2021. The +3.7% growth in the construction sector translated to improved earnings across cement manufacturers.

 

The H1 2021 result of Dangote Cement Plc signposted improvement in earnings on the back of increased demand, higher sales volume, reduction in rebates and discounts, and realized higher product prices. The company also resumed exporting clinker from Nigeria in Q2 2021, from both Apapa and Onne terminals. The company saw an increase in its total debt by +16.24% in H1 2021.

 

On the other hand, Lafarge Africa's saw an improvement in its liabilities as its debt fell by -64.06%; this accompanied the full redemption of its N100bn bond issuance program. Unlike Dangote, Lafarge Africa saw a dip in its total borrowings, The third leg of the domestic cement market tripod, BUA Cement Plc, improved its earnings, but with a +162.07% Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) rise in its total liabilities.

 

The double-digit interest coverage was a finding that competitors replicated. Despite increased borrowing, the company's revenues were sufficient to meet finance costs while maintaining adequate liquidity; an alternative explanation could be that the local cement companies have not adequately managed their debt or sufficiently invested in new technologies.



Deconstructing an Industry- Taking a company-by-company view of Nigeria's cement business throws up some interesting similarities and differences:



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Dangote Cement H1 2021 Analysis

Key Highlights

  • Revenue was up Y-o-Y by +44.81% to N690.55bn from N476.85bn in H1 2020
  • Sales volume was up by +26.11% to 15.28 MMT in H1 2021 from 12.11 MMT
  • Cost sales grew by +36.41% to N276.12bn from N202.43bn in H1 2020
  • Gross profit rose Y-o-Y by +51.01% to N414.43bn from N274.43bn in H1 2020
  • The gross margin increased to 60.0% from 57.60% in H1 2020
  • EBITDA edged up by +11.16% to N351.07bn from N218.07bn in H1 2020
  • EBITDA margin increased to 50.80% from 45.70% in H1 2020
  • Finance income fell Y-o-Y by -8.00% to N9.41bn from N10.23bn
  • Finance cost increased by +45.54% to N30.35bn in H1 2021
  • Profit before tax (PBT) increased Y-o-Y by +72.72% to N281.25bn from N162.85bn in H1 2020
  • Total asset inched up +14.93% to N2.07trn from N1.81trn in H1 2020
  • The net asset was up Y-o-Y by +8.88% to N805.03bn from N739.37bn
  • The group's earnings per share (EPS) was up by +50.47% to N11.21 from N7.45 in H1 2020.

 

Profitability

Revenue

Revenue of DANGCEM grew in H1 2021 by +44.81% to N690.55bn from N476.85bn in H1 2020. The revenue growth was supported by strong volume growth and lower rebates and discounts as stated in the financials of the group. The group's sales volume was up Y-o-Y by +26.11% driven by the +33.18% growth recorded in the volume sales of the Nigerian segment of the business in H1 2021.

 

The growth in revenue in H1 2021 was the highest percentage growth while H1 2018 records the highest percentage decline in revenue of the company in recent years (see chart 4 below).

 

In US dollar terms, the revenue of Dangote Cement had a lower percentage growth using official rates at the different periods for conversion. It grew Y-o-Y by +27.46% to US$1.68bn in H1 2021 from US$1.32bn in H1 2020.

 

Chart 4: Dangote Cement's Revenue H1 2017 - H1 2021 (N'bn)

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Source: Dangote Cement Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Profit Before Tax

Dangote Cement recorded its highest percentage PBT growth in H1 2021; it grew Y-o-Y by +72.71% to N281.25bn from N162.85bn in the corresponding period of 2020. The group recorded its most significant percentage decline in PBT of -16.20% in H1 2019.

 

PBT grew despite a -8.0% decline in finance income and a +45.54% Y-o-Y rise in finance cost (see chart 5 below). The company's investor presentation showed that earnings grew on the back of increased demand for cement products and realized higher prices, especially from the broader African segment of the business.

 

Converting to US dollar terms, its PBT saw notable growth, although lower than its Naira growth. PBT was up Y-o-Y by +52.01% to US$685.72m from US$451.11m in H1 2020.

 

 

Chart 5: Dangote Cement's Profit Before Tax H1 2017 - H1 2021 (N'bn)

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Source: Dangote Cement Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Liquidity Ratios

Quick Ratio

The group's acid-test ratio (also called the quick ratio) rose to 0.50 in H1 2021 from 0.41 in H1 2020. Analysts note that a quick ratio of 1 would be preferred for a manufacturing company, which would indicate that the company had ready assets to cover current liabilities after subtracting the value of inventories.

 

The group had the highest industry quick ratio of 0.65in H1 2018 while H1 2020 records the lowest quick ratio of the company in recent times (see chart 6 below).

 

Chart 6: Dangote Cement's Quick Ratio H1 2017 - H1 2021

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Source: Dangote Cement Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Interest Coverage Ratio

An interest coverage ratio of 3 or more indicates that the company can meet its debt obligations and still have some liquidity left. In the case of Dangote Cement, in H1 2021, the interest coverage ratio rose from 8 to 10, which shows the earnings of the company can pay interest on its debt 10 times (see chart 7 below). This can also indicate that the company is not using its debt properly or investing in new products and technology even though Dangote Cement is the market leader.

 

Chart 7: Dangote Cement's Interest Coverage Ratio H1 2017 -H1 2021

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Source: Dangote Cement Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Working Capital

The negative trend in working capital continued in H1 2021, declining by -14.75%. The fall in working capital contrasts with the growth of both current assets and current liabilities. The rate of change in current assets outstripped growth in current liabilities.


In H1 2021, the current asset rose by +41.41%, while current liabilities rose Y-o-Y by +15.95% (see chart 8 below).

 

Chart 8: Dangote Cement's Working Capital H1 2017 - H1 2021 (N'bn)

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Source: Dangote Cement Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Efficiency Ratio

 

Total Asset Turnover Ratio

In H1 2021 the group had the highest total asset turnover ratio in recent years; the efficiency ratio edged up to 0.36 from 0.28 in H1 2020. The higher the asset turnover ratio, the more efficient its asset is in generating revenue. This is also clearly seen, in the growth in revenue in the period, as total assets were up +14.93% Y-o-Y to N2.07trn (see chart 9 below).

 

Chart 9: Dangote Cement's Total Asset Turnover Ratio H1 2017 - H1 2021

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Source: Dangote Cement Financial Statement, Proshare Research

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Lafarge Africa H1 2021 Analysis

 

Key Highlights

  • Revenue was up +20.30% Y-o-Y to N145.02bn from N120.54bn in H1 2020
  • Cost sales grew by +23.02% to N78.83bn from N96.97bn in H1 2020
  • Gross profit rose Y-o-Y by +15.18% to N48.04bn from N41.71bn in H1 2020
  • Finance income fell Y-o-Y by -3.77% to N362.85m from N377.05m
  • Finance cost dipped by -39.93% to N2.66bn in H1 2021 from N4.43bn
  • Profit before tax (PBT) increased Y-o-Y by +27.79% to N36.75bn from N28.76bn in H1 2020
  • Total asset inched up +3.21% to N511.72bn from N495.79bn in H1 2020
  • The net asset was up Y-o-Y by +5.60% to N371.85bn from N352.14bn
  • The group's earnings per share (EPS) increased by +21.38% to 176kobo from 145kobo in H1 2020.

 

Profitability

Revenue

Lafarge Africa's revenue for H1 2021 increased by +20.30% to N145.02bn from N120.54bn in H1 2020. H1 2021 records the highest percentage growth, while H1 2019 records the highest percentage decline in the company's revenue in recent times.

 

The revenue growth was supported mainly by the +83.49% growth in the sales of aggregate and concrete, although revenue from the sale of cement accounts for 97.52% of the company's total revenue.

 

In US dollar terms, revenue had a slower growth rate against growth in Naira terms. It grew by +5.89% Y-o-Y to US$353.56m in H1 2021 from US$333.92m in H1 2020 (see chart 10 below).

 

Chart 10: Lafarge Africa's Revenue H1 2017 - H1 2021 (N'bn)

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Source: Lafarge Africa's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Profit Before Tax

After recording a loss before tax in H1 2018, PBT rebounded in H1 2019 by +143.53% to N15.45bn. Between H1 2020 and H1 2021, the PBT of Lafarge Africa has increased at a decreasing rate. 

 

In H1 2021, PBT rose by +27.79% to N36.75bn from N28.76bn in H1 2020. The growth in PBT was supported by a +15.18% Y-o-Y rise in gross profit and a -39.93% fall in finance cost, although finance income dipped by -3.77% to N362.85m.

 

Translating to US dollar terms, PBT was up Y-o-Y by +12.47% to US$89.59m from US$79.66m in H1 2020 (see chart 11 below).

 

Chart 11: Lafarge Africa's Profit Before Tax H1 2017 - H1 2021 (N'bn)

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Source: Lafarge Africa's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Liquidity Ratios

Quick Ratio

Lafarge Africa's quick ratio rose to 0.64 in H1 2021 from 0.45 in H1 2020. This liquidity position was supported by a +36.68% rise in current assets against a +1.89% rise in current liabilities (see chart 12 below).


The company announced the redemption of its N100bn bond issuance program, which also supports the -64.06% decline in total borrowings of Lafarge Africa.

 

 

Chart 12: Lafarge Africa's Quick Ratio H1 2017 - H1 2021

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Source: Lafarge Africa's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Interest Coverage Ratio

The company's recent results demonstrate that it has been able to avoid insolvency, resulting in an improvement in its interest coverage ratio. In H1 2021, interest coverage rose to 14 from 7 in H1 2020 (see chart 13 below).

 

This was supported by a -39.93% fall in finance cost and a +16.49% rise in earnings before interest and tax (operating profit was used as a proxy).

 

 Chart 13: Lafarge Africa's Interest Coverage Ratio H1 2017 - H1 2021

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Source: Lafarge Africa's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

 

Working Capital

Like its counterparts, Lafarge Africa also had a negative working capital; however, the negative trend in its working capital declined between H1 2018 to H1 2021. The decline in its borrowings also underscored its reduced negative working capital (see chart 14 below).

 

Chart 14: Lafarge Africa's Working Capital H1 2017 - H1 2021 (N'bn)

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Source: Lafarge Africa's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Efficiency Ratio

 

Total Asset Turnover Ratio

The cement manufacturer's total asset turnover ratio improved in H1 2021, from 0.22 in H1 2020 to 0.29. This was after it recorded a massive decline in H1 2019 and H1 2020 because of the significant decrease in revenue and total assets. The H1 2021 result shows an improvement in its efficiency in terms of its assets (see chart 15 below).

 

 

Chart 15: Lafarge Africa's Total Asset Turnover Ratio H1 2017 - H1 2021

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Source: Lafarge Africa's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 


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BUA Cement Plc H1 2021 Analysis


Key Highlights

  • Revenue was up Y-o-Y by +22.73% to N124.28bn from N101.26bn in H1 2020
  • Cost sales grew by +19.12% to N66.16bn from N55.54bn in H1 2020
  • Gross profit rose Y-o-Y by +27.12% to N58.12bn from N45.72bn in H1 2020
  • EBITDA edged up by +23.47% to N58.4bn from N47.3bn in H1 2020
  • EBITDA margin increased slightly to 47% from 46.70% in H1 2020
  • Net finance cost dipped by -49.87% to N824.11m in H1 2021
  • Profit before tax (PBT) increased Y-o-Y by +26.90% to N49.70bn from N39.16bn in H1 2020
  • Total asset inched up +28.23% to N665.86n from N519.29bn in H1 2020
  • The net asset was down Y-o-Y by -12.34% to N349.35bn from N398.52bn
  • The group's earnings per share (EPS) increased by +24.27 to 128kobo from 103kobo in H1 2020.

 

Profitability

Revenue

BUA cement's revenue improved by +22.73% in H1 2021 to N124.28bn from N101.26 in the corresponding period of the previous year; this is after revenue had grown by +12.73% in H1 2020 (see chart 16 below).

 

The limestone crusher had the second-highest percentage growth in revenue in the cement market, coming after Dangote Cement who had a +44.81% growth, and Lafarge Africa had a +20.30% Y-o-Y revenue growth.

 

Converting to US dollar terms, revenue had a lower percentage growth against growth in Naira terms like its counterparts in the industry. Revenue was up Y-o-Y by +8.02% to US$302.99m from US$280.50m in H1 2020.

 

Chart 17: BUA Cement's Revenue H1 2019 - H1 2021 (N'bn)

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Source: BUA Cement's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Profit Before Tax

When comparing its PBT growth to its industry competitors, BUA cement had the lowest PBT growth rate, trailing only Lafarge Africa slightly. Meanwhile, Dangote Cement led the industry in PBT growth.

 

In H1 2021, PBT grew Y-o-Y by +26.90% to N49.70bn from N39.16bn in H1 2020. PBT growth came because of a -49.87% fall in net finance cost (see chart 17 below).

 

In US dollar terms, PBT increased by +11.69% to US$121.12m from US$108.49m in H1 2020.

 

 

Chart 17: BUA Cement's Profit Before Tax H1 2019 - H1 2021 (N'bn)

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Source: BUA Cement's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Liquidity Ratios

Quick Ratio

BUA cement acid-test ratio increased to 0.71 in H1 2021 from 0.41 in H1 2020, indicating an increase in the company's ability to meet its short-term obligations in the absence of inventories.

 

The growth in the quick ratio was mainly propelled by a +60.02% rise in current assets against a +14.74% Y-o-Y rise in current liabilities (see chart 18 below).

 

Chart 18: BUA Cement's Quick Ratio 2019 - H1 2021

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Source: BUA Cement's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Interest Coverage Ratio

A very high-interest ratio shows that a company is missing out on opportunities to improve its earnings through debt. With a coverage ratio of 61 in H1 2021, BUA cement has the highest interest coverage ratio among the major companies in the industry.

 

Interest coverage rose in H1 2021 from 25 in H1 2020, which is attributed to a -49.87% dip in finance cost and a +21.81% Y-o-Y rise in operating profit (see chart 19 below).

 

Chart 19: BUA Cement's Interest Coverage Ratio 2019 - H1 2021

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Source: BUA Cement's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Working Capital

The fact that the leading players in the cement sector have negative working capital implies that the companies rely substantially on liabilities for operations and revenue generation.

 

BUA cement's negative working capital improved in H1 2021 so did Lafarge Africa's (see chart 20 below).

 

Chart 20: BUA Cement's Working Capital 2019 - H1 2021 (N'bn)

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Source: BUA Cement's Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Efficiency Ratio

Total Asset Turnover Ratio

The efficiency of BUA cement's total asset in generating revenue has been low and the lowest in the industry. The H1 2021 result of the cement manufacturer shows the asset turnover ratio rose slightly to 0.21 from 0.20 in H1 2020.

 

2019 figures show the full-year performance of the total asset turnover ratio (see chart 21 below).

 

Chart 21: BUA Cement's Total Asset Turnover Ratio 2019 - H1 2021

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Source: BUA Cement's Financial Statement, Proshare Research


Competitive Analysis

The major players delivered a combined revenue of N959.85bn in the first six months of 2021, which is +37.39% higher than what was recorded in the same period in 2020. Dangote Cement accounted for +71.94%, Lafarge Africa and BUA Cement accounted for 15.11% and 12.95% for the total revenue of the industry.

 

All three companies had negative working capital which reflected the high capital requirement in an oligopolistic (few sellers) market. Dangote Cement was the market leader but with a large leverage ratio of 68.64% and the highest negative working capital in the industry.

 

The market players' interest coverage ratios were in the double digits, suggesting that, despite an increase in the debt size of individual companies (excluding Lafarge Africa, which saw a -64.06% decrease in total borrowings), the cement manufacturers' operating profit could cover their finance costs.

 

Despite having a larger asset size than Lafarge Africa, BUA cement had the lowest efficiency ratio of 0.21, indicating that Lafarge's asset utilization was more efficient than BUA Cement's in H1 2021(see table 1 below).

 

Table 1: Performance Matrix

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Related News - Dangote Cement Plc

1.      Dangote Cement Q2 2021 Results Review: Moving to Outperform from Neutral

2.        Moody's Announces Completion of a Periodic Review of Ratings of Dangote Cement Plc

3.        Moody's Places Dangote Cement's B1 Ratings on Review for Downgrade

4.        Dangote Cement Plc Reports N192bn PAT in Q2 2021 Results, (Share Price: N248.00k)

5.        Dangote Cement Becomes First Nigerian Company to Report its Results Using XBRL

6.        SEC Approves the Share Buy-back Program Renewal of Dangote Cement Plc Until January 21, 2022

7.        Dangote Cement Acquires 2,000 Trucks for Distribution of Products

8.        Dangote Cement Plc Renews Its Share Buyback Programme

9.        Shareholders of Dangote Cement Plc Approve N272.6bn Dividend for FY 2020

10.   Dangote Cement Plc Releases 2020 Combined Annual and Sustainability Report

11.   DANGCEM Series 1 Fixed Rate Senior Unsecured Bonds, Under the NGN 300bn Programme Now Open

12.   Implications of Tranche 1 Share Buyback Programme by Dangote Cement

13.   Dangote Cement to Commence Tranche 1 Share Buyback Programme by December 30th 2020

14.   DANGCEM Board Proposes Share Buyback and Reverse Share Split To Its Shareholders

15.   Shareholders of Dangote Cement Plc Approve N272.6bn Dividend for FY 2020

16.   Dangote Sugar Declares N8.3bn PAT in Q1 2021 Result, (SP:N17.10k)

17.   Dangote Cement Restates Commitment to Closing Demand-Supply Gap

18.   Dangote Cement Q1 2021 Result: Revving up Revenues but Growing Debt

19.   Coastline Terminals: Dangote Group Does Not Own, Not Affiliated with ICTSI

20.   Dangote Cement Plc Releases 2020 Combined Annual and Sustainability Report

21.   Dangote Cement Q1 2021 Results Review: Bullish Sentiments Remain Following Strong Q1 Performance

22.   Dangote Vs BUA; The Sugar Wars Unredacted

23.   Dangote Cement Q4 2020 Results Review: Bullish Outlook for '21f Driven by Capacity Addition

24.   Dangote Cement FY2020 Results: A Revenue Trot and Bottom-line Gallop

25.   Dangote Cement Plc Contemplates Debt Funding Options Under Planned N300bn Bond Issuance Programme

26.   Dangote Cement to Pay over N97bn in Corporate Tax for Financial Year 2020




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Related News - Lafarge Africa

1.      NGX CEO Lauds Lafarge Plc for Commitment to Sustainability

2.     Lafarge Africa Reaffirms Commitment to Invest More in Nigeria

3.       Lafarge Africa Announces the Redemption of Its Matured N33.6bn Bond Due June 15, 2021

4.       Lafarge Africa Assures Shareholders of Improved Business Performance at 62nd AGM

5.       Lafarge Africa Q1 2021 Results Review: Negligible Changes to Our Earnings est. Over 2021-23f Period

6.       Lafarge Africa Q1 2021 Result: Rising Profits Hit Tight Working Capital

7.       Lafarge Africa Q4 2020 Results Review: 13% Reduction to our EPS Forecast Over the '21-23f Period

8.       LafargeHolcim Announces Successful Acquisition of Firestone Building

9.       Lafarge Africa Plc FY2020 Results: Bottom-line Rises as Pandemic Gets Plastered

10.  Lafarge Africa Declares N30.8bn PAT in 2020 Audited Results, Proposed N1 Final Div. (SP: N22.50k)

11.  Lafarge Webinar Series: Thought Leaders Call for Building Code Standardization

12.   Lafarge Africa Notifies of Board Meeting Date and Commencement of Closed Period



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Related News - BUA Cement Plc

1.       BUA, MMM ERBA of Turkey Sign Agreement to Construct Gypsum Powder Manufacturing Plant

2.       BUA Cement Plc Reports N43bn PAT in Q2 2021 Results, (Share Price: N67.30k)

3.       Backward Integration: CBN Clears Dangote, BUA on Sugar Importation into Nigeria

4.       BUACEMENT Holds AGM, Declares N72.3bn PAT, Pays N70bn Dividends

5.       BUA Cement Chairman, Abdul Samad Rabiu, Gifts N2bn Share Bonus to Employees

6.       No Plan to Increase Our Cement Price - BUA

7.       FMDQ Exchange Welcomes BUA Cement Plc's N115.00bn Series 1 Bond in the Nigerian DCM

8.       BUA Cement Q1 2021 Result: Earnings Leap as Debt Numbers Spring Upwards

9.       BUA Signs Polypropylene Contract with Lumus Technology

10.  BUA Cement Dissociates Self from Purported Increase in Ex-Factory Prices of Cement

11.  BUA Refinery: More is Better

12.  NSE Lists BUA Cement Plc Series 1 Bonds

13.  Dangote Vs BUA; The Sugar Wars Unredacted

 

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