FIDELITYBK Downgraded from Neutral to Underperform on weak Q1'16 Results


Thursday, May 26, 2016 11.35AM / FBNQuest Research

Marked cuts to our EPS forecasts and price target
Fidelity Bank’s (Fidelity) underlying Q1 2016 results came in weaker than expected, mainly due to a negative surprise in non-interest income which was down by 35% y/y and a -N3.5bn loss on the other comprehensive income line.

As such, we have cut our 2016E EPS forecast by 47%; we shield our valuation slightly from the OCI loss, given its magnitude, by basing the derivation of our price target on our 2017E ROAE estimate, discounted back to 2016E.

As such, the cut to our price target of 34% is less than that to our 2016E EPS estimate. Although we have reduced our 2016E impairment forecast by 16% to reflect the positive surprise on this line in Q1, our cost of risk assumption of 1.3% is worse than guidance of 1.0%, given the challenging operating environment.

Consequently, our 2016E ROAE forecast of 3.9% (-490bps y/y) is well below guidance of < 10%. Despite shedding -19% ytd (vs -9.7% ASI), we find the shares expensive, with a downside potential of 22%. We downgrade our recommendation to Underperform from Neutral.

Weak other income &OCI loss weigh on PAT 
Fidelity’s Q1 2016 results showed that while PBT declined by -15% y/y to N4.0bn, PAT fell by a wider margin of -99% y/y to N71m. Further up the P&L, although profit before provisions grew by 6% y/y and loan loss provisions fell by 28% y/y, a 16% y/y spike in opex resulted in PBT declining by 15% y/y.

A negative result of -N3.5bn in other comprehensive income (OCI) amplified the y/y (-99% y/y) decline in PAT. Moving back to the pre-provision profits, although funding income grew by 30% y/y, a 35% y/y decline in non-interest income was responsible for the single-digit growth in pre-provision profits.

The Q1 quarter marks the third consecutive quarter of y/y decline on Fidelity’s non-interest income line. Sequentially, PBT grew markedly by a factor of 17.1x q/q, but only because of a weak comparable in the prior quarter.

Despite the stellar growth in PBT, PAT fell by -99% q/q because of base effects: a positive result of N717m in the OCI line in Q4 2015. Compared with our forecasts, PBT missed by 15% because profit before provisions came in around 11% lower than what we had modelled.

Although the weak (-26% vs our est.) other income line was the major driver behind the miss in pre provision profits, funding income which missed by 5% also contributed.

Related NEWS

1.       Fidelity Bank Appoints Alhaji Mohammed Lawal Balarabe as Ag. Managing Director

2.      Fidelity Bank Q1 2016 Expect negative reaction to 15 decline in PBT

3.      FIDELITYBK Declares N3.58 billion PAT in Q1 2016 Result,(SP:N1.17k)

4.      Fidelity Bank Cooperates With the EFCC over Transaction Investigations

5.      FIDELITYBK: Q4 2015 boosted by tax and OCI

6.      FIDELITYBK Records 89% PBT Decline in Q4’15 Results; Shares Rated Underperform

7.      FIDELITYBK Declares N13.9billion PAT Proposes 16kobo Dividend in 15 Audited Result SP N1.32k

8.     Fidelity Bank Q3 15- Weak funding income growing OPEX overwhelm profit line

9.      FIDELITYBK Announces 11.0 Growth in Gross Earnings to N106.6 billion and PBT of N13.8 billion.

10.  FIDELITYBK Records 12 Below Forecast in PBT Shares Rated NEUTRAL

11.  FIDELITYBK declares N11.45 billion PAT in Q3 15 Result SP N1.38k

12.  FIDELITYBK Appoints Adeyeye Olawale Adepegba Nneka Chinwe Onyeali-Ikpe as Executive Directors 

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