| Stock & Analyst Updates |    2556 VIEWS  |
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Tuesday, October 29, 2019 / 6:00 PM / By CSL Research / Header Image Credit: Dangote Sugar
Dangote Sugar in its recently released 9M
2019 financials reported 0.6% y/y rise in Revenue to N117.4bn in 9M 2019 from
N116.8bn in 9M 2018. However, on a q/q basis, Revenue dipped 12.2% q/q to
N37.1bn in Q3 2019 from N42.2bn in Q2 2019. However, we note Revenue in Q3 2019
came in higher than Q3 2018 Revenue by 13.4% y/y which suggests the possibility
that the company may be feeling the positive impact of the border closure which
has limited entry of smuggled sugar. Across business segments, sales of the
50kg bag category grew 0.9% y/y to N111.2bn while Revenue from retail sugar was
up 2.7% y/y to N3.3bn. On the other hand, Revenues from retail molasses and
freight services were down 26.8% y/y and 7.3% y/y.
Cost of Sales (adjusted for depreciation)
edged higher, climbing 2.4% y/y to N85.4bn for 9M 2019 from N83.3bn in 9M 2018.
On a q/q basis, Cost of Sales fell by 13.3%, higher than the 12.2% q/q decline
in revenue. However, the growth in Cost of Sales on a y/y basis was faster than
the growth in Revenue driven by 4.6% y/y growth in raw materials cost. Notably,
other line items of Cost of Sales were lower on a y/y basis save for raw
materials cost and freight expenses which suggests DangSugar must have been
impacted by the mild pressure on raw sugar price. Against this backdrop, Gross
Profit fell 4.1% y/y to N32.1bn in 9M 2019 from N33.4bn in 9M 2018. On a q/q
basis, Gross Profit was down 8.6% to N9.0bn in Q3 2019 from N9.9bn in Q1 2019.
Gross margin printed at 27.3% in 9M 2019, 1.3ppts lower than 9M 2018 28.6%.
Operating Expenses (adjusted for
depreciation) grew marginally, up 0.9% y/y to N5.9bn for 9M 2019 driven by a
10.9% y/y growth in Administrative Expenses (excluding depreciation) to N5.3bn.
On the other hand, Selling & Distribution expenses was down 43.6% y/y to
N607.0m. On the back of lower Gross Profit, EBITDA declined 5.1% y/y to N26.1bn
in 9M 2019 from N27.5bn in 9M 2018. EBITDA margin for 9M 2019 was lower by
1.3ppts y/y to 22.3%.
EBIT fell 12.6% y/y to N23.1bn in 9M 2019
from N26.4bn in 9M 2018 on the back of lower Other Income (down 64.2% y/y to
N122.1m) and lower Investment Income (down 72.5% y/y to N593.7m) booked by the
company for the period. Lower Tax Expense (down 13.0% y/y to N6.1bn) and Net
Finance Cost (down 47.7% y/y to N85.2m) cushioned the decline in Net Income.
Nonetheless, Net Income fell 12.0% y/y to N14.7bn in 9M 2019 from N16.7bn in 9M
2018. Earnings per Share (EPS) stood at N1.24/s for 9M 2019 compared to N1.41/s
in 9M 2018.
We have a target price of N14.50 for
Dangote sugar with a HOLD recommendation. Current price; N10.35
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