ASI, Dangote Index End May and June 2019 With Mixed Results


Tuesday, July 02, 2019  / 7.30PM  / Glory Okutue/Proshare research

Investors wondering how they would have done if they had invested in the Dangote or Elumelu Index over the last two months of May and June 2019 can feel satisfied that they would have done slightly better than the Nigerian Stock Exchange’s (NSE’s) All Shares Index (ASI). Whilst the ASI tumbled -4.66% YTD, the other Indexes though lower have been better in resisting the markets downward pull.

Turning Point

The NSE ASI recorded a +3.68 growth on Tuesday, May 28, 2019, however by May 30, 2019, the market saw its numbers take a downward turn as the ASI fell by -0.17%The last trading day of the month of May was no different as the ASI shed an additional -0.59%The sharpest decline was witnessed on the third day of June with NSE ASI recording a loss of -1.30%.  At the end of the second week in June, Friday, June 14, NSE ASI regained some positive momentum with a marginal growth of +0.06% as against the -0.23% loss recorded the previous day; it however opened the third week with a loss of -0.37%.

During the last week of June, the ASI recorded a decline on four consecutive days of the week but regained positive grounds to end the week with a +0.29% growth. Over the month of June 2019, the ASI had 4 days of positive growth against 16 days of losses. As at July 2, the All Shares Index posted a 0.74% decline.

Weighing the Dangote Factor

Proshare’s Dangote Index had a similar pattern to the ASI, recording a +4.68% on Tuesday, May 28, 2019 thereby outperforming the market. Consequently, the Dangote Index witnessed a decline of -0.91% on May 29, 2019 and just like the ASI, recorded its highest loss of -5.04% for the twenty-one trading days to June 03, 2019. The Index bounced back to outperform both the market and Proshare’s Tony Index on the last days of the second and third weeks of June with a gain of +0.47% and +0.99% respectively. The Dangote Index, however, ended the month of June negative to record a loss of -0.50% and as at July 2, it dipped again by -0.79%.

The Tony Index Counter Trend

In contrast to the Dangote Index, the Tony Index on the other hand outperformed both the market and Dangote Index. It gained +6.77% and +3.87% on May 28 and May 29 respectively but later slid downward to record its highest loss of -3.84% on Friday, May 31, 2019. On Thursday, June 13, it recorded a decline of -0.34% and by Friday, the index remained flat, neither gaining nor losing. The last week in the month of June witnessed a decline in the Tony index for the first four days, however it regained positive momentum on the last trading day of June to record a gain of +1.22% and as at July 2, the Tony Index appreciated by +0.93% as against the -0.93% loss recorded on July 1.

Whilst the ASI and Dangote Index had similar trend patterns, the Tony Index trend was independent of the two suggesting a mildly negative correlation with the ASI; this could be a portfolio protection opportunity for investors trying to hedge their investments against a general market headwind; the Tony Index could reduce the size of the negative returns on an ASI-type portfolio of stocks. 

A review of how volatile stocks have been in the last one month reveals that the Tony Index has shown higher volatility than the Dangote Index with the Tony Index being about one and a half times more variable than the Dangote Index which in turn proved to be more variable than the ASI. The Dangote Index was about 68 basis points (0.68%) more variable than the ASI. Nevertheless, an investor was most likely to be ahead of both the Dangote Index and the ASI if s/he had invested in the Tony Index.

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ASI Vs Lotus Islamic and Meristem Indexes

The NSE Lotus Islamic Index maintained an almost similar pattern with the ASI. It recorded a growth of +2.60% on May 28 and then dipped by 0.76% on May 30. By May 31, it experienced a turnaround to gain +0.17% The Lotus Islamic index recorded ten days loss from June 3 till June 19 and just like the ASI, it recorded its sharpest decline of -1.86% on June 6. The Lotus Islamic index recorded more losses than gains in the month of June and it closed the month with a capital loss of -0.17%. As at July 2, it depreciated further to close the day with a loss of -0.98% as against -0.63% loss recorded in the previous day.

The Meristem Value index performed better than both the ASI and Lotus Islamic Index with more records of capital gains than the other two indices. The Meristem Value Index appreciated by +2.07% and +1.16% on May 28 and May 29 respectively. It recorded it highest loss of -2.87% on May 31 and its highest gain of +2.71% on June 19. The meristem value index closed the month of June with a gain of +2.71% and as at July 2, it depreciated to record a loss of -2.21% as against 1.27% gain recorded on July 1.

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