State of State’s GDP: Much Ado About The Maiden State GDP Report?

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Tuesday, October 23, 2018 / 09:31 AM / United Capital Research

 

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently published its first-ever States’ GDP data. The maiden report profiled the Nominal GDP of 11 of the 36 States of the federation between 2013 and 2017. They are Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Kaduna, Kano, Ogun, Osun, Oyo, River and Zamfara states.

In 2014, Nominal GDP growth for the 11 States averaged 11.5% (similar to +11.3%y/y national output growth) with C/River State led the pack with a +75.1%y/y surge while Delta state lagged with a -12.8%y/y decline. In 2015, Nominal growth dived 5.1% on average for the 11 States (vs +5.6%y/y for National output) amid sharp decline among the four oil-rich States. This reflects the impact of 2015 oil crisis.

Interestingly, performance recovered in 2016, averaging 4.7%y/y (vs National output of +7.8%) but the broader economy sank into a recession in real terms as most of the oil-rich States recorded yet another negative growth amid production disruptions in 2016.

All 11 States rebounded in 2017 as the recovery in the broader economy strengthened to +0.8% in real terms; Bayelsa jumped the highest, up 62.5%y/y while Kaduna recorded the least at 16.2%y/y.

Clearly, the performance of the Oil-rich States co-move with the overall economy, hence, we await the publication for States like Lagos, to gain further insight into the performance of the broader economy.


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