NSE All Shares Index 2020; Eyeballing The Highs and Lows

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Friday, April 17, 2020 /12.45PM / Adesola Borokinni, Proshare Research / Header Image Credit: NSE


In the last 52-weeks the Nigerian Stock Exchange's All Shares Index (ASI) and companies listed in the different industrial categories have witnessed shades of investor sentiments ranging from the pessimistic between Q2 and Q4 2019 to the surprisingly hopeful in Q1 2020, despite the novel coronavirus concerns.  

 

Between the end of March and the middle of April 2020, the market index has risen marginally as investors appear to be taking long positions based on their assessments of cheap asset values and hidden- value opportunities.

 



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Table 1: Industrial Goods Sector

COUNTER

TICKER

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Today's % Price ∆

YTD

Year high

Year low

DANGOTE CEMENT PLC

DANGCEM

121.00

         133.10

10.00%

-6.27%

        188.50

        129.00

JULIUS BERGER NIG  PLC

JBERGER

22.50

23.00

2.22%

15.58%

27.50

19.90

BUA CEMENT PLC.

BUACEMENT

30.40

          30.40

0.00%

-13.14%

           41.00

          30.40

CHELLARAMS  PLC

CHELLARAM

2.78

             2.78

0.00%

0.00%

             3.08

             2.78

LAFARGE (WAPCO) PLC.

WAPCO

12.40

12.85

3.63%

-16.01%

16.35

9.10

NAHCO

NAHCO

2.35

2.35

0.00%

-2.08%

3.40

2.03

JOHN HOLT PLC

JOHNHOLT

0.56

0.56

0.00%

0.00%

0.56

0.52

UACN PLC

UACN

7.10

7.30

2.82%

-15.12%

11.05

7.10

SCOA NIGERIA PLC

SCOA

2.93

2.93

0.00%

0.00%

2.93

2.93

Source: NSE, Proshare Research Data as at April 15, 2020.


 

The outbreak of COVID-19 in Nigeria is predicted to affect Nigeria's industrial sector negatively. Cement and aviation industry are most likely to be worst hit by the outbreak.



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Thinking About Industrials

Among the nine stocks examined in the industrial goods sector, five stocks recorded dips their year-to-date (YTD) price performance, three stocks recorded no change in their YTD price movement while JULIUS BERGER NIG Plc. recorded a positive YTD performance of +15.58%. The industrial stocks that recorded the highest dips were LAFARGE (WAPCO PLC), UACN PLC, BUA CEMENT PLC and DANGOTE CEMENT PLC which dipped by -16.01%, -15.12%, -13.14% and -6.27% respectively. CHELLARAMS PLC, JOHN HOLT PLC and SCOA NIGERIA PLC recorded no change in their YTD stock price performance.

 

DANGOTE CEMENT PLC recorded a closing price of N133.10, higher than its Year low price of N129.0 but lower than its Year high of N188.50. JULIUS BERGER NIG Plc recorded a closing share price of N23.00, higher than its Year low price of N19.9 but lower than its Year high of N27.5. Investors appear to be ambivalent i.e. some investors expect that both DANGOTE CEMENT PLC and JULIUS BERGER NIG Plc will do well despite the present economic woes while some investors feel that the coronavirus will have adverse effect on both companies' earnings and hence their profitability.

 

BUA CEMENT PLC recorded a closing price of N30.40 which was equal to its Year low of N30.40 and was -25.85% lower than its Year high of N41. This indicates that investors had negative market sentiments towards BUA CEMENT, as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the country rose (see Table 1 above).

 

Table 2: Banking Sector

COUNTER

TICKER

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Today's % Price ∆

YtD

Year high

Year low

ACCESS BANK NIGERIA PLC

ACCESS

6.55

7.00

6.87%

-30.00%

11.60

5.40

STERLING BANK

STERLNBANK

1.52

1.50

-1.32%

-24.62%

2.40

0.99

UNITED BANK FOR AFRICA PLC

UBA

6.30

6.50

3.17%

-9.09%

8.90

4.40

UNION BANK NIGERIA PLC

UBN

6.50

6.20

-4.62%

3.33%

7.20

5.70

UNITY BANK PLC

UNITYBNK

0.45

0.49

8.89%

-23.44%

0.84

0.40

WEMA BANK PLC

WEMABANK

0.62

0.56

-9.68%

-24.32%

0.80

0.44

ZENITH BANK PLC

ZENITHBANK

14.50

15.90

10.03%

-14.52%

22.75

10.70

STERLING BANK

STERLNBANK

1.52

1.50

-1.32%

-24.62%

2.40

0.99

IBTC-CHARTERED BANK PLC

STANBIC

28.50

28.60

0.35%

-30.24%

48.50

23.85

ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INCORPORATED

ETI

4.85

5.00

3.09%

-23.08%

13.50

4.05

FIDELITY BANK PLC

FIDELITYBK

2.12

2.12

0.00%

3.41%

2.37

1.53

FCMB PLC

FCMB

1.58

1.70

7.59%

-8.11%

2.09

1.45

GUARANTY TRUST BANK PLC (GTB)

GUARANTY

20.45

21.90

7.09%

-26.26%

37.50

16.75


Source: NSE, Proshare Research Data as at April 15, 2020.

 

Among the thirteen banking stocks listed on the NSE, eleven (11) stocks recorded dips in their YTD price performance while two (2) banking stocks recorded positive changes in their YTD price movement. The top three banks with the highest dips in their YTD prices were IBTC-CHARTERED BANK PLC, ACCESS BANK NIGERIA PLC and GUARANTY TRUST BANK PLC which dipped by -30.24%, -30.00% and -26.26% respectively. FIDELITY BANK PLC and UNION BANK PLC both recorded gains in their YTD stock performance by +3.41% and +3.33% respectively (see Table 2 above).

 


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Banking's Highs and Lows

All the banking stocks had closing share prices higher than their Year-lows but lower than their Year-highs. For example, Access Bank Nigeria Plc recorded a closing share price of N7 higher than its Year-low of N5.40 but lower than its Year-high price of N11.60. Also, GT Bank had a close of N21.9 which is higher than its Year-low of N16.75 but lower than its Year-high of N37.50. This shows that a majority of investors in banking stocks are ambivalent. Some investors expect that the banking industry will perform well despite the negative economic tide facing the country as they believe the banks have strong fundamentals while other investors believe that the outbreak of the coronavirus and the shutdown of major cities such as Lagos, Abuja and Ogun will negatively affect the banking industry performance.

 

Table 3: Oil & Gas Sector

COUNTER

TICKER

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Today's % Price ∆

YtD

Year high

Year low

CONOIL PLC

CONOIL

14.45

14.45

0.00%

-21.89%

23.00

13.15

JAPAUL OIL AND MARITIME SERVICES PLC

JAPAULOIL

0.20

0.20

0.00%

0.00%

0.21

0.20

SEPLAT PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT COMPANY LTD

SEPLAT

495.00

495.00

0.00%

-24.75%

605.00

495.00

CHEVRON (TEXACO)  (NIG)  PLC

MRS

13.80

13.80

0.00%

-9.80%

20.85

13.80

OANDO PLC

OANDO

2.64

2.90

9.85%

-27.32%

5.60

1.89

ETERNA  OIL & GAS PLC

ETERNA

2.39

2.39

0.00%

-33.61%

4.80

1.99

TOTAL NIGERIA PLC

TOTAL

96.30

96.30

0.00%

-13.17%

196.00

96.30

Source: NSE, Proshare Research Data as at April 15, 2020.

 

Among the seven oil & gas stocks examined, six (6) oil & gas stocks recorded dips in their YTD stock price performance while one (1) oil & gas stock recorded no change in its YTD stock price performance. The top three oil and gas stock with the highest dips in their YTD performance are ETERNA OIL & GAS PLC, OANDO PLC and SEPLAT PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT COMPANY LTD PLC which dipped by -33.61%, -27.32% and -24.75% respectively. JAPAUL OIL AND MARITIME SERVICES PLC recorded no change in its YTD stock performance (see Table 3 above).

 

Dark Oil

JAPAUL OIL AND MARITIME SERVICES PLC, SEPLAT PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT COMPANY LTD, CHEVRON PLC AND TOTAL NIGERIA PLC all had closing stock price equal to their Year low prices. The low prices of oil stocks indicate that investors in these stocks have adverse market sentiments. This is based on the backdrop of the uncertainty in the global oil market. The recent agreement in the cut in the global oil supply is yet to have any meaningful impact on the global oil price.

 

While CONOIL PLC, OANDO PLC and ETERNA OIL & GAS PLC had closing stock prices higher than their respective Year-low prices but lower than their respective Year-high prices. This suggests that investors in these stocks are ambivalent. For example, CONOIL PLC recorded a closing price of N14.45 higher than its Year-low price of N13.15 but lower than its Year-high price of N23.

 

Table 4: Consumer Goods Sector

COUNTER

TICKER

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Today's % Price ∆

YtD

Year high

Year low

CADBURY NIGERIA PLC

CADBURY

7.00

        7.00

0.00%

-33.65%

       10.85

        4.95

DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC

DANGSUGAR

11.70

       12.70

8.55%

-6.62%

       15.05

        9.00

FLOUR MILLS NIG. PLC

FLOURMILL

21.50

21.50

0.00%

9.14%

24.00

18.95

GUINNESS NIG PLC

GUINNESS

22.70

22.50

-0.88%

-25.12%

64.00

22.50

HONEYWELL FLOUR MILL PLC

HONYFLOUR

0.98

0.94

-4.08%

-5.05%

1.21

0.83

INTERNATIONAL BREWERIES   PLC

INTBREW

5.00

5.00

0.00%

-47.37%

26.00

4.90

NESTLE NIGERIA PLC

NESTLE

830.20

830.20

0.00%

-43.52%

1498.00

765.00

P.Z. CUSSONS NIGERIA PLC

PZ

4.00

4.00

0.00%

-29.20%

10.50

3.75

Source: NSE, Proshare Research Data as at April 15, 2020.

 

Among the eight stocks examined in the consumer goods sector, seven stocks recorded dip in their YTD stock prices, while FLOURMILLS NIG PLC. recorded a positive YTD performance of +9.14%. The top three consumer goods stocks that recorded the highest dip are INTERNATIONAL BREWERIES PLC, NESTLE NIGERIA PLC, and CADBURY NIGERIA PLC which dipped by -47.37%, -43.52% and -33.65% respectively.

 

All stocks examined under the consumer goods sector except GUINNESS NIG PLC recorded closing share price higher than its Year-low price but lower than its Year-high prices. This indicates that investors have mixed feelings towards these stocks. CADBURY NIGERIA PLC recorded a closing share price of N7.00, higher than its Year-low of N4.95 but lower than its Year-high of N10.85. DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC recorded a closing share price of N12.70 higher than its Year-low of N9.0 but lower than its Year-high of N15.05.

 

While GUINNESS NIG PLC had a closing share price of N22.50 equal to its Year-low price. This shows that investors have slim growth outlook as they predict that the coronavirus pandemic will worsen GUINESS NIG Plc sales in months to come and adversely affect its profitability (see Table 4 above)

 

Moody Market

The equities market has been moody as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupts supply chains and shrinks economic output. Global economic growth is expected to contract by -1.6% in 2020. Nigeria's growth is expected (according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)) to shrink by -3.4%, although a +2.4% reversal is forecast to happen in 2021. As things stand now, however, Nigeria's equity market players are not smiling.

 


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