Friday, October 30, 2020 / 05:00 AM / by Proshare Research / Header Image Credit: EcoGraphics
Illustration 37: Holdcos: The New Face of Financial Supermarkets
Fintechs in the financial service sector will likely be pulled by two forces, the first would be the positive force of increased adoption at the top and lower end of the customer pyramid driven by the realities of social distancing prompted by COVID-19, and the second force would be the economic downturn leading to a loss of customer incomes and jobs, which in turn would result in a rise in delinquent loan assets with a few Fintech lenders going bust. Which force will dominate will rely heavily on domestic fiscal and monetary policies and the shape of the COVID-19 recovery curve- V, U, W, or K.
However, writers at global management consultancy McKinsey are optimistic about the future outlook of Fintech in Nigeria. In a recent report on the Nigerian Fintech industry titled 'Harnessing Nigeria's Fintech Potential,' the McKinsey analysts note that "A youthful population, increasing smartphone penetration, and a focused regulatory drive to increase financial inclusion and cashless payments, are combining to create the perfect recipe for a thriving fintech sector."
The report continues to observe that, "Fintechs have led with innovation in product development, designing useful, convenient and affordable financial products and services for millions of Nigerians. In the process, they have created a multiplier effect across the economy, unlocking new business models beyond financial services, fueling the growth of e-commerce, increasing the STEM talent pipeline, and moving the needle on progress towards the country's development goals." This may be so, but Fintechs are not without problems.
A severe challenge for Fintechs is in the credit arena. Although algorithms try to figure out the likelihood of default of particular borrowers, as Shakespeare presciently observed, "there is no art to find the mind's construction in the face", and indeed the same could be said about the face of advanced mathematical equations. With job losses on the incline and companies in a recessionary gridlock, the rise in loan default rates is likely to be staggering. Without structured lending frameworks as banks, most Fintech lenders are likely to see their loans disappear into a black hole.
Most Fintechs have targeted early adopters and have not had the courage or the inclination to break new grounds by introducing the financially excluded to fresh financial opportunities by way of digital technology. However, opportunity favours the brave, about 40% of Nigeria's estimated 200m population do not have bank accounts, this provides a potential customer base that is fresh, free, and fragile this potential market can be nurtured carefully to be late adopters and compelling advocates for services offered by Fintechs.
The Odd Monkey Market and its Parable
Increasingly Fintech companies, especially those targeted at the agricultural sector have been offering returns on investments far above returns in alternative money market assets with investors piling into these digital investment wonders in search of superior returns. The problem with such schemes is that there is no underlying 'real' asset trading in a growth market that justifies the returns on offer. The schemes speak to the parable of the monkey market.
Illustration 38: The Monkey Market and It's Financial Service Equivalent
Source: Proshare Foundation
The parable of the monkey market is an analysis of Ponzi schemes in which investors are left stranded with a mirage of economic value created on the back of the human frailties of greed, gratification, and misdirection. Investors are promised high rates of returns on their investment with no economic or business rationale to support the high rates.
Some Fintechs in Nigeria appear to operate like Ponzis. The rise of these schemes seems to be jumping off the wagon of low domestic returns on investments across money and capital market instruments. Nigerian banks are closely knit to Fintech companies and currently offer low rates on fixed deposit and savings accounts while their Fintech associates offer higher returns but on significantly riskier premise. For example, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently instructed deposit money banks (DMBs) that from September 1, 2020 interest rates on local currency savings deposits will be negotiable subject to a minimum of 10% per annum of Monetary Policy Rate (MPR). With the recent MPR at 11.5%, this brings savings rate to a minimum of 1.15% and if adjusted for inflation at 13.2% as of August 2020, the real savings deposit rate would be -12.05%. With this kind of real rate, it appears that investors will sprint to riskier market assets with higher short to medium-term yields. But where they sprint to is just as important as where they are sprinting from.
Some Fintechs in Nigeria offer a return on investments that pull silva from the mouth but their high yields represent a higher risk of a payment default. Following the moral of the parable of the monkey market, the higher interest rates offered by Fintech companies are not sustainable and will eventually leave unsuspecting investors stranded on the investment tarmac. Greed may inspire but it also kills.
"If you compare banks to companies like Google, it's evident that banks are still at the nascent stage of the digital and data revolution." - Vik Atal
There were expectations by banking sector analysts that the Nigerian banking sector would be severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic due to its high exposure to the oil & gas sector, contraction of the economy, and a COVID-19-induced economic lockdown. Contrary to expectations, the Nigerian banking sector's performance tipped noticeably past the average sector performance in countries like the US, Singapore, South Africa, etc. Amongst the thirteen (13) banks listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, eight (8) banks recorded an improvement in their PBT in H1 2020 while five (5) banks recorded a decline in their PBT. FCMB recorded the highest percentage increase of +25.51% in PBT while WEMA bank recorded the largest decline of -33.72% in PBT in H1 2020.
In line with expectations of a rise in credit risk, nine (9) of the listed banks on the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE) recorded a rise in their impairment charges in H1 2020 while three (3) banks which include Unity Bank, WEMA Bank, and Union Bank recorded a decline in impairment charges. The rise in impairment charges could be attributed to the increase in provisions due to the negative outlook towards loan asset performance in Q3 and Q4 2020. The forward-facing IFRS9 standards for impairment recognition would compel upward impairment adjustments in a period of relative downward-looking economic expectations in H2 2020. Although the economic performance of the Nigerian economy is expected to shrink by only -3.12% by H2 2020 (according to Proshare's linear macroeconomic forecast model), the economic outlook is still mildly depressing even though it is an improvement on the -6.10% recorded in August.
The COVID-19 pandemic has muscled banks into rethinking their business strategies to adapt to the "new normal". Some banks have had to close branches, right-size staff, diversify loan assets to more profitable sectors and work aggressively towards becoming digitalized to stay afloat during the pandemic-induced downturn.
The trend amongst deposit money banks (DMBs) towards a holding company (Holdco) structure creates interesting regulatory and business detours. Sterling Bank recently obtained the CBN's approval to transmute from a stand-alone commercial bank to a holding company. Also, GT Bank has spelled out its plans to convert to a Holdco. Access Bank recently announced that it has gotten approval-in-principle (AIP) from the CBN to restructure to a holding company. Some of the motives for evolving into a Holdco structure could be to protect its assets, reduce/minimize the risk of insolvency, and allow the Holdco to diversify more efficiently as it invests in new ventures.
Trying To Avoid VUCA
A systemic problem, however, is the confusion of regulatory oversight. Banks have announced that they have approvals or approvals-in-principle by the CBN to become holding companies but this appears slightly odd. A Holdco structure is a structure that has banking as a part of a wider financial supermarket arrangement of a group of companies and each company within that structure has a different regulator. This is where trouble occurs. The CBN does not regulate all the companies under the Holdco and a Holdco should not require the approval of the CBN, except those institutions under the CBN regulatory purview who wish to become members of a Holdco. The more appropriate approving authority for the creation of a Holdco should be the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The recent rush to the press to affirm an approval-in-principle (AIP) by the CBN for banks wishing to become part of a Holdco structure creates market volatility (for NSE-listed institutions), business uncertainty, structural complexity, and ambiguity or what local analysts have preferred to call VUCA.
Illustration 39: Bank Holding Structure and the Mistiness of Progress
ETI and FBNH are clear examples of the mist that can develop from a Holdco structure. ETI is the Holdco of the Ecobank continental group, but often investors confuse ETI for Ecobank Nigeria, so in analyzing ETI are investors pricing-in all operations of the group across the continental economies of Africa in multiple currencies? (see Ecobank Nigeria: The Case For Restructuring, Repositioning, and Retooling)
Ecobank Nigeria constitutes about a fifth of the groups continental business and with its local subsidiary's relatively poor corporate earnings (even before the wider COVID-19 troubles) in the last three years, it is unclear whether the stocks pricing on the NSE is a reflection of the group's overall performance or investors finicky observation of the bank's local Nigerian subsidiary. Most analysts dissect the financial statement of accounts of the group rather than the local bank but the awkward perception of the Nigerian subsidiary far overshadows the group's overall continental scorecard.
In 2018 Proshare had, as part of its market reporting responsibility, to take on the bankâ€™s management in respect of its perceived non-compliance with IFRS9 accounting rules on the treatment of its loan impairments and the IAS 21 rules concerning foreign exchange translation recognition and reporting, these fuzzy areas of Holdco accounting and operations can prove difficult to untangle. For example, while the CBN capital adequacy rules may affect Ecobank Nigeria, it certainly cannot be said to be relevant to the business of the overall group which operates in different economic jurisdictions. Furthermore, even though ETI is the listed entity in Nigeria. SEC rules apply to which entity, as most of the group's businesses are outside the country?
The FBNH structure has different complexities. FBNH structure has a series of subsidiary banks under Holdco but also has an investment bank, a stockbroking operation, a trusteeship line of business, and until recently an insurance company. The Holdco is more of a financial supermarket in the mode of the universal banking (UB) model between 1999 and 2010/2011. It represents a one-stop financial boutique.
The model has some advantages such as the cross-selling of financial services and the capturing of the customer journey experience within a web of businesses within one financial group. The problem, however, is that the absence of 'Chinese walls' between businesses could lead to transfer pricing and creative accounting practices between group affiliates. It was this incestuous relationship and the lack of clarity in the books of UBs that prompted erstwhile CBN Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, to scrap UBs in 2010 (see Illustration below).
Illustration 40: UBs-The Walking Undead
Banks in A Time of COVID-19; The Unspoken Words
The Banking sector's resilience would depend on fiscal and monetary policy interventions as well as the effectiveness of the government's response to the spread of the coronavirus in Nigeria. If there is a sudden spike in the spread of the virus and a lockdown is re-imposed then the banking sector becomes potentially vulnerable to a longer-term dip in domestic economic fortunes. On the other hand, if the government's response is effective and the spread of the virus is successfully curbed then the banking sector would rebound quickly to pre-COVID levels. An uncommon observation is that the local banking industry got hit for six in the first two months of the pandemic by the third month the managers of banks had started to decouple the institutions from the travails of the broad economy. This explains why Nigerian banks have not been as badly hit by the COVID-19 challenge as other companies in the economy. The ability of banks to engage in countervailing measures to temper the severity of the virus on the economy suggests unspoken built-in sector resilience. The adoption of digital solutions before the pandemic outbreak meant that many customers could continue banking relations without the need for physical presence for most payment and settlement transactions.
The use of digital mediums of transactions for financial flows meant that banks saw a spiraling of e-banking incomes and a reduction in cash handling costs between Q1 and Q2 2020, available but non-verified information suggests that the trend has continued into Q3 2020. Even at the informal retail end of markets involving such primary activities as barbing, tailoring, and meat selling bank transfers have increasingly become acceptable means of payment. The rise in digital transactions has improved non-lending transaction income and enabled banks to improve their earnings or reduce their potential earning declines as the economy went into a freeze over the first six months of 2020. In other words, banks had a tough time in H1 2020 but their ability to unhinge from the broader value destruction going on in the economy by Q2 2020 provided them with a softer cushion to fall on and a much lower height to drop.
Illustration 41: Nigeria's Mushrooming Digital Payments Ecosystem
The Nigerian banking sector narrative in H1 2020 has been a tale of dodged bullets. The capacity of local banks to ride over the wave of a health pandemic and an economic implosion caused by falling fiscal revenues is a brilliant stage performance in Act 1 Scene 1. The next open curtain call introduces Act 1 scene 2 which would require banks to depend less on fortune and more on strategy.
As banks recover fully from the COVID-19 pandemic they would need to revise their survival playbook. The three cornerstones of their forward play should be the following:
Illustration 42: Constructing Strategic Narratives
With the future shrouded in uncertainty, the outlook for banking is a gamble on the institutional resilience, far-sighted corporate leadership, and the creative application of technology in the course of day-to-day business. The ability of local Nigerian banks to unhinge their hooks from the general economy provides hope that at least tier 1 banking institutions would provide backstops to an economic downturn in 2020 and 2021.
Going into 2021 Nigerian banks will have to pull out all the stops to drive harder top and bottom-line earnings as the economy makes a weak recovery heading into Q3 2021. Q1 should see the economy ease into a modest real GDP growth of slightly less than 1% and this should push up into Q2 as economic expansion gains momentum. If banks could face down headwinds in the eye of the COVID-19 storm in Q1 and Q2 2020, then they should do quite well growing their P&L and statements of financial positions (balance sheets) in Q2 and Q3 2021. The outlook, however, relies heavily on the pandemic slowing down and an antivirus being available by the end of H1 2021 at the latest. Until the economy shows signs of solidity in its key drivers not many people will sleep with both eyes closed.
Downloadable Versions of Banks in H1 2020: Imagining Beyond COVID-19 Report (PDF)
1. Executive Summary: Banks in H1 2020: Imagining Beyond COVID-19 - Oct 11, 2020
2. Full Report: Banks in H1 2020: Imagining Beyond COVID-19 - Oct 11, 2020
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