The GTBank 2020 Economic Outlook: Macro-Economic and Banking Sector Themes


Sunday, February 09,  2020   /03:00 PM  / By GTBank / Header Image Credit:  GTBank

Among the top issues that Nigerians are most concerned about are Security, Infrastructural Development and Poverty Alleviation. Individually, these factors will dominate conversations across all spheres of society and collectively, shape the economic landscape of the country in 2020.

GTBank have detailed its economic outlook for 2020 covering the following themes:

  • Fiscal Policy and the 2020 FG Budget
  • Total Debt Profile
  • Interest Rate and Inflation
  • Exchange Rate Policy, External Reserves and Capital Flows
  • Oil Prices, Production and Security

Download Full PDF Report Here


Review of 2019

2020, Year of the Rat, marks the beginning of the repeating 12-animal cycle of the Chinese Zodiac. The last Rat Year, 2008, reminds us of the collapse of the global investment banking giant, Lehman Brothers which tipped the scales in the build-up to the last global financial crisis; one that many have referred to as the most severe since the Great Depression of the 1930s.


Incidentally, it is the first time in almost a century that the Rat Year has coincided with the beginning of a new decade hence, the widespread expectations that the year 2020 will signal new opportunities, new beginnings and renewals. With the race for Downing Street out of the way, Boris Johnson must now lead the government to pass a Brexit deal or leave the European Union (EU) without one. Unlike the parody video of Tom Cruise running for President of the United States of America (USA), President Trump will require more than speed, humour and a stuntman to win another term at the Oval office as he jostles to survive the ongoing impeachment inquiry against him.


The need to quell tensions stemming from escalated attacks between Iran and the USA using more conciliatory approach could pave way for a new dawn in the Middle East. The thawing of relations between the US and China on the back of the signed phase one deal by both countries signals a probable end to a protracted trade war. With President Macron championing the need to include Russia in the new architecture of trust and security in Europe, Vladmir Putin could improve his country's relationship with the EU and secure a deal to lift sanctions against his country.


Separatism surged as established pro-independence movements in Hong Kong, Kashmir and Catalonia sustained their struggle for new beginnings while Scotland's clamour for independence from the United Kingdom (UK) is set to intensify in the wake of Brexit. From Venezuela to Paraguay, Peru to Bolivia and Ecuador to Chile, the wave of protests and civil unrest could birth an era of accountable elected officials and implementation of people-oriented policies in South America.


Japan, host of Tokyo 2020 Olympics, will look to show the world that it has risen from the ruins of Hiroshima & Nagasaki to become a beacon of peaceful democracy, home to iconic technological inventions. The World Bank projects that the global economy will expand by 2.5% in 2020, up from an estimated growth of 2.4% in 2019 on the back of modest economic recoveries in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs), deceleration of trade tensions and improved global financial conditions.


Despite the need to develop appropriate fiscal policies and build resilient buffers to withstand financial market disruptions, EMDEs are projected to grow by 4.1% in 2020 from an estimated weaker-than-expected expansion of 3.5% in 2019 predicated on decelerating financial pressures, stable global commodity prices and improved trade relations between major economies. Sub-Saharan Africa's growth is projected at 2.9% in 2020, better than 2.4% estimated for 2019 on the back of improved investor sentiments in the region's largest economies (Nigeria, South Africa, Angola), strengthened recoveries among industrial commodity exporters, increased oil production and robust growth in non-resource intensive economies including Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda etc. The region's growth excluding Nigeria, South African and Angola is projected at 4.6% from an estimated 2019 growth of 4.1%.


Download Full PDF Report Here


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Related News - Reviews and Outlooks

  1. FSDH Macroeconomic Outlook 2020: Accelerating Growth in the New Decade
  2. African Economic Outlook 2020: Developing Africa's Workforce for the Future
  3. Nigeria in the New Decade: Priority for Accelerated Growth, Job Creation and Poverty Reduction
  4. Global Bank Rating Outlooks Are Still Skewed to the Negative
  5. 2019 Review and 2020 Outlook - Nigeria in the New Decade... Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained
  6. NCM2020 (6) - Nigeria's Fiscal Deficit is Projected to Widen to 4% of GDP
  7. NCM2020 (4) - Africa's Projected 4% Growth Is Insufficient To Make A Dent
  8. FBNQuest 2020 Research Outlook: Global Headwinds Moderating, Domestic Calm
  9. United Capital To Host 2020 Outlook Breakfast Session
  10. NSR H1 2020 (11) - Fixed Income - Liquidity Surfeit to Keep Yields Subdued
  11. NCM2020 (2) - Significant Downtrend Recorded in Global Growth; Major Economies Negatively Affected
  12. FY 2020 Outlook: Treading Uncharted Waters
  13. Increasing External Risks and Weak Public Finances Keep 2020 Outlook on SSA Sovereigns Negative
  14. NSR H1 2020 (10) - Monetary Policy - CBN Caressing Both FPIs and Economic Growth
  15. NOVA Economic Outlook H1 2020 - Nigerian Economy To Grow By 2.4% YoY Over 2020
  16. NSR H1 2020 (9) - GDP - Economic Growth Should Remain Anemic, Flatlined at 2.2%
  17. NSR H1 2020 (8) - Inflation Set for a Double Whammy in 2020!
  18. Year Ahead 2020 - Re-risking The Financial System
  19. NSR H1 2020 (7) - Currency - How Long Can The CBN Keep Up?
  20. NSR H1 2020 (6) - Balance of Payment - Edge of the Cliff
  21. NSR H1 2020 (5) - EM Portfolio Flows - Happy Days Ahead for EM Foreign Portfolio Flows


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Related News On Banking Sector

1.      Banking Sector Update - CBN Wields Regulatory Stick Again

2.     Bank Equity Returns Do Not Look So Good in 2019

3.     Nigerian Banks: A Season of Mixed Performance; Reviewing The Growth Numbers

4.     ETI: Walking A Tight Rope; Earnings Down As Continental Headwinds Persist

5.     UBA 9 Months 2019 Result; Strong Top Line Earnings, Stable Outlook

6.     FBNH's Sober Year; Soft Top Line Earnings, Modest Bottom Line Growth 9M 2019

7.      Zenith Bank 9 months 2019 Result; Strong Profit Outlook from Ebusiness, Modest Top Line Earnings

8.     Access Bank 9Months 2019 Result; Strong Earnings, But OPEX Rises 47.7%

9.     GT Bank 9M 2019; Good Numbers, But A Howler In Loan Asset Growth

10.  Unity Bank Plc Q3 2019 Results: Pulling Out of A Ditch Slowly

11.   Banks' H1 2019 Numbers: Top Line Growth, Bottom Line Uncertainty

12.   Banking Sector Update - CBN Makes Statement Move On Intention To Drive Lending

13.   12 Banks To Pay N499b CBN Fine For Loan Policy Breach

14.   Nigerian Banks Tried, But 'Not All' Made New Loans Threshold

15.   CBN Reviews LDR Target Upwards To 65%; DMBs Required To Attain LDR of 65% By Dec 31, 2019

16.   CBN's New Minimum LDR Requirement May Worsen NPLs

17.   CBN Mandates DMBs To Maintain Loan To Deposit Ratio Of 60% Effective Sept 30, 2019

18.  Nigerian Banks' Performance - H1 2018

19.   FBNHoldings Plc Q1' 2017 Performance Assessment Report Updated

20.  Analysing the Performance of FBN Holdings Plc - A Comprehensive Report


 Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


Related News