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Thursday,
January 28, 2021 /03:00 PM / By Proshare Research/ Header Image
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Executive Summary
Hold on to your dream. Don't let past failures or dire economic forecasts make you a pessimist. Keep your youthful dreams alive and create your own opportunities. - Paul Zane Pilzer
Paul
Pilzer may well have been making a pitch to Nigerian youths, as the events of
the last twelve months have been disruptive enough to shoot down stars from the
clearest of skies. The 2020 coronavirus pandemic was a scorching experience
that drilled massive holes into the pockets of governments around the world as
citizens queued up at isolation centres to fight off a venomous disease,
lacking in empathy.
Hospitals
came under strain as health workers and patients caught the bug and death
loomed like a Godzilla. Factories closed dust-caked windows, cinemas went
silent and airplanes lay like coffins on parade as economies slowly but
painfully sank into despair. Nevertheless, with 2020 in the rearview mirror,
and factories gingerly restarting to hum again as airlines and airplanes
reawake, analysts are more optimistic at the beginning of 2021 than they were
pessimistic at the end of 2020. Dreams are coming alive and opportunities seem
to be reemerging.
Nigeria in Six Charts
Nigeria's
economy went into free fall in Q2 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic worsened and
tumbling international oil prices poisoned an already difficult situation. By
the end of the second quarter the country's gross domestic product (GDP), a
measure of economic output, shrunk by -6.10% before
recovering in Q3 2020 by -3.62%. The
two-quarters of negative GDP growth nudged the economy into an official
recession with job loss rates rising and inflation rate scampering. A few
analysts believe that the 2020 economic decline was less severe than would have
been the case if the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had not adopted a policy of
quantitative easing (QE) and the ministry of finance (MoF) had not permitted a
larger-than-expected fiscal deficit. Subsequent information suggests that the CBN
had put in the palms of the fiscal authorities a shimmering N2.38trn credit
lifeline by its ways and means mechanism, hence leaving the finance authorities
with a massive future fiscal funding gap of over N2trn.
The
country's macroeconomic balance can be viewed in six charts and a theory.
GDP- Understanding the Chicken Run
Nigeria's
GDP has had an interesting run as it has dipped and swerved from optimistic
growth to scary depression, back to growth, and then on to depression in 2020.
Before 2015, the economy's growth engine had purred at a nice pace of slightly
over +6% as it drove smoothly along an
upward trajectory from an average of +6.23% in
2014 but slipped to an average of +3.2% in
2015 and slammed the brakes as it skidded into a recession between 2016 and Q1
2017.
GDP fell from -0.67 in Q1 2016 to -1.49% in Q2, -2.34% in
Q3, and -1.73% in Q4 by Q1 2017 GDP saw a slight but still negative recovery of -0.91%.
As the global recession passed by in Q2 2017 and GDP growth ramped up to +0.72%, the
economy appeared to be on the mend even though the population growth rate was
plodding ahead at a disturbing +2.6% per
annum (see chart 1 below).
Chart 1: Nigeria's GDP Growth
Rate (%)
The
harsh times of 2016 left the jobless rate up in double digits, while domestic
consumption stumbled and manufacturers saw net sales slide, the purchasing
manager's index (PMI) equally took a knock. The GDP growth reversal in 2017 put smiles on manufacturers' faces as output
rose as the jobless rate started to fall with GDP growth rising from +2.11% in Q4 2017
to +1.95% in Q1 2018 and +2.38% in Q4 2018. In between Q1 and Q4 2018, the
growth rate fell to +1.5% in Q2 and +1.81% in Q3.
Manufacturers
and workers were optimistic that 2019 would prove better than the previous
year, 2020, and they were right. GDP rose by +2.1% in Q1 2019, +2.12% in Q2, +2.28% in
Q3 and +2.55% in Q4. The first quarter of
2020 saw GDP growth rate climb by +1.87% before the coronavirus outbreak led to
a reversal with Q2 2020 witnessing a major contraction as GDP growth slid by -6.10% before retracing
its steps in Q3 2020 with the growth rate slowing less rapidly by -3.62%.
Nigeria's
GDP chicken run over the last seven years has reflected uncontrollable
external factors and perfectly controllable policy choices. The country's
fiscal and monetary policies have often been out of alignment and the route to
desired economic prosperity has been littered with hope rather than logic,
ethnic bias rather than a competitive advantage, and favouritism rather than
competence.
Inflation Rate- When What is Real Begins to Matter
Nigeria's
latest inflation figures for December 2020 showed that headline inflation grew by +15.75% and food inflation
spiked at +19.56%, an indication that
domestic real asset values were being pulverized as the country's poverty index
hit new highs.
The
rise in domestic prices has been unnerving in the last two years as headline inflation has steadily increased without let. In January 2019 inflation rate was
just over +11% but by October the rate had
risen to +11.61% and by year-end December
2019 inflation rate had skimmed just under +12% to +11.98%.
With
COVID-19 fears kicking-in by Q1 2020, the inflation rate rose more sharply as
supply chain links were decoupled and factories' gates closed. The country's
inflation rate in January 2020 was +12.13% by
March it had risen to +12.26%, in June 2020
the domestic inflation rate had scrambled up by a further +12.56%. By the end of Q3 2020, the domestic
price level had again increased by +13.71%.
The beginning of Q4 2020 saw the inflation rate leap further by +14.23% as the delayed impact of earlier input supply
disruptions, farmgate security challenges, and land border closure combined to
knock the wind out of the economy's sail (see chart
2 below).
Chart 2: Nigeria's Inflation Rate
(%)
This
explains why the inflation rate still rose in December 2020 by +15.75%, a throwback to November 2017. The
continuous rise in the inflation rate in 2020 hurt the value of financial
assets as real yields took a beating as inflation-adjusted returns became
negative leading to several investors leaping out of fixed income securities
and seeking solace in the equities market. The NSE All Shares Index (ASI) went up +50.03% year-t0-date (YTD)
at the end of 2020, making it the best performing market in Africa (see the section on the African equities market in this
report).
With
the inflation rate at +15.75%, it would take
only four years and three months for the value of every naira asset to be worth
roughly half of its present value, if the double-digit rate persists. If the
monetary authorities are to encourage savings in the country (a critical factor
in wriggling away from slow medium-term growth), real rates of return on deposits
must go up by between 10% and 12%, otherwise, owners of idle cash balances
would probably search for near-liquid assets that track inflation much better.
Good
investors search for value but great investors search for inflation-proofed
value, a growing number of Nigerian investors are moving from good to great.
Debt -Staying Catholic, Or Perhaps Not?
Nigeria's
domestic and foreign debt numbers have easily galloped in the last six years.
Nigeria's combined domestic and foreign debt numbers rose from N12.6trn in 2015
to N17.4trn in 2016, at the beginning of a short-cycle recession. The debt figure continued to rise with a recovery in GDP growth numbers in 2017
as Nigeria's total debt stock climbed to N21.7trn.
The
low-growth recovery of GDP between 2017 and 2018 was unable to stop the viral
growth of debt as Nigeria's debt stock has continued to rise, leapfrogging from
N24.4trn in 2018 to N27.1trn in 2019. In H1 2020 the total national debt had
risen to N31.01trn (see chart 3 below).
Chart 3: Nigeria's Total Debt (N'trn)
The
five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the nation's total debt was 21.1% as of 2019, but the rate could be closer to +16% if 2020 debt numbers are taken into
consideration and a base rate adjustment is made. For example, if the H1 figure
of N31.0trn were to be used to calculate CAGR for full-year 2020 and the base
rate was shifted to N17.4trn for 2016, the new five-year growth rate would be +15.62%. If the Q3 2020 figure of N32.22trn is
applied the CAGR would be +16.65%.
The
growth rate of debt is higher than the growth rate of inflation, thereby
worsening the plight of taxpayers. Taxpayers would be slammed with an 'inflation tax' as they would also be forced to pay for higher fiscal
borrowings. The double whammy of abstinence from Catholic prudence and cheerful
fiscal spending leaves no heavenly solace for the innocent. Taxpayers will have
to hunker down and grit their teeth in 2021 as they pay for public sector
exuberance.
PMI-Making Manufacturers Cry
It
was tearful. Nigeria's manufacturing sector in 2020 was slam-dunked. The
COVID-19 pandemic cut supply lines, deferred production inputs, and primed the
pump for expensive inventories. This translated to higher costs (debt service
does not sleep during pandemics), lower or non-existent operating cash flow,
and rising cost-0f-carry.
The
country's purchasing managers' index
(PMI) seesawed between 57.1% and 60.8% in
2019 but slumped between 41.4% and 51.1% in 2020. In June 2020 the Index
collapsed to 41.4% amid the coronavirus economic lockdowns but bounced back
mildly in July to 44.9% before rising a notch to 46.9% in September and
then skipped to 49.4% in October, 50.2% in November, and dropped to 49.6% in
December 2020. The gradual rise in the PMI towards the end of the year,
according to analysts, reflects a slow but noticeable turnaround in the
country's economic fortunes (see chart 4 below).
Chart 4: Nigeria's Manufacturing
PMI (%)
Nigeria's
manufacturing sector is expected to chug along modestly in 2021 but a lot
depends on how quickly the COVID-19 pandemic is resolved and how fast domestic
supply rigidities are addressed.
Unemployment-Hard Times, and Swollen Feet
Nigeria's
unemployment rate has once been described as a mystery locked inside a box, as the
bureau of statistics has done a marvelous job of keeping up with macroeconomic
data on every other headline macroeconomic indices except the national unemployment rate. Indeed, inquiries concerning the Q4 2018 to Q1 2020 unemployment
numbers revealed that the federal government had been shy in spending money on
collating the unemployment figures for the missing periods for reasons that are
yet to be explained (see chart 5 below).
Chart 5: Nigeria's Unemployment
Rate (%)
The
unemployment rate for Q2 2020, however, stood at 27.1% up from 23.1% in Q3
2018. The reason why the rising unemployment rate is such a major concern in
Nigeria is that it is estimated that over 60% of the country's population is
between the ages of 16 and 35 years, making it one of the youngest populations
on the planet. This implies that the demography would require broader access to
qualitative education, superior healthcare facilities, and improved
opportunities for their skills and learning to be deployed to rapidly growing
sectors of the economy. So far, has not happened.
The
structure of the Nigerian economy (high dependence on oil for foreign exchange
earnings and low domestic manufacturing activities) suggests that many young
persons will remain unemployable. The country has an estimated 40.5m small and
medium-sized businesses with the majority of these enterprises barely able to
scrap up decent earnings as high running costs clip their wings. Unfortunately,
the country's educational system has only recently started to reposition its
admission policy and curricula to favour the hard sciences in contrast to
liberal arts and the social sciences. The mismatch between qualifications and
job requirements will produce a pressure cooker society with crisis
persistently simmering just beneath the surface.
Indeed,
the difference between the skills the Nigerian economy needs and the skills
Nigerian youths possess can only worsen the domestic unemployment rate and
raise touchpoints for social disaffection, dislocation, and revolt. Analysts
have noted that the problem starts with a slow-moving economy that has idled
along at a rate below the +2.6% annual
population growth rate, thereby reducing the country's income per person.
To
be sure, for those who have taken time to monitor unemployment, disaster does
not always come in a flash, it sometimes grows like an Indian Baobab tree, slow
at first until it reaches a tipping point, where it explodes into a forest
giant. Behavioural economists note that social crisis stares Nigeria in the
face if it does not pull its GDP up by at least an additional 8% per annum. The
quietly climbing jobless rate could very suddenly burst into a mass movement of
troubled youths seeking work and finding long queues, frustration, and sore
feet.
Although
bandaged feet are bad enough, it would not be as damaging as the bruised egos,
the sense of despair, and the burning desire to make somebody pay for their
hardship.
Capital Importation-When Foreigners Vote with their Dollars.
As
was noted in the previous section Nigeria has a myriad of socio-economic
challenges that threaten growth and stability, prominent of which has been
unemployment and underemployment. However, to help temper the severity of the
problem imported capital has proved supportive as international investors pour
dollars into the local economy, and Nigerians in the diaspora take a hard look
back in search of higher investment yields.
Capital importation has been wavering in the last half-decade between 2016 and 2020. At the
beginning of the economic recession in 2016 capital imports became historically
low. Imports were almost forgettable over the four quarters of 2016 but rose
noticeably as the global economy shrugged off the after-effects of the economic
downturn by Q3 2017. In the third quarter of 2017 capital importation got to
US$ 4.15bn before climbing to US$5.38bn in Q4 of the same year. With
global economies showing signs of a sustained recovery in 2018, and investor
confidence springing back as they become less risk-averse, the capital
importation figures spiked as capital inflows rose to US$6.3bn in Q1 and
US$5.51bn in Q2 2018.
Rising
capital import continued in Q1 2019 after a sharp drop to US$2.86bn in Q3 and
US$2.14bn in Q4 2018. Capital imports in Q1 2019 hit a high of US$8.51bn before
dropping back to US$6.05bn in Q2 and US$3.8bn in Q4 2019. Surprisingly, the
beginning of 2020 saw capital importation rise strongly to US$5.85bn in Q1 at
the start of the coronavirus pandemic, even though, Nigeria was not immediately
threatened by the outbreak. By Q2 2020 with the decision to partially lockdown
the Nigerian economy the levels of capital importation shrank. For example, capital
importation fell from US$5.85bn in Q1 2020 to US$1.29bn in Q2 and US$1.46bn in
Q3 2020, representing two low-base capital import figures that were last seen
in the recessionary year of 2016 (see chart 6 below).
Chart 6: Nigeria's Capital
Importation ($'bn)
A Rebound and Alphabet Soup
The
outlook for the Nigerian economy in 2021 is mildly optimistic. Analysts believe
that GDP would grow at a steady rate of between +1.5%
and +2.4% as manufacturers regain
their bearings, supply chains become reestablished and consumer demand rises.
However, much depends on how fast coronavirus vaccinations can be provided for
the most vulnerable members of the population. The projection that 40% (or
roughly 80m citizens) of the population would receive vaccinations in the year
is wildly hopeful. The country would at best vaccinate a fraction of the
proposed number.
This
means that herd protection may become increasingly critical in keeping the
economy open throughout the year. The various governments would need to keep
citizens safe by enforcing non-pharmaceutical measures to bring down the
numbers of infected people. The COVID-19 inter-personal contact protocols would
need rigorous adherence to stop the rapid communal spread of the virus in
places like Lagos state, Rivers state, and Abuja. Besides, the distribution
consideration for vaccines must shelve the suboptimal concept of so-called 'federal character' and deal with epicentres faster than places with lower
virus incidences.
If
the economy stays open throughout the year, the letter W would more closely
describe its recovery pattern, in contrast to other alphabet patterns such as V
which suggests that the economy will not suffer a growth relapse as a result of
the virus or the letter K which indicates that larger corporations will rebound
more quickly than their smaller counterparts who may suffer a steady decline as
they find it difficult to reestablish supply chains and recover customer
demand.
More
recently some local economists have proposed a square root recovery which would
involve a small and short GDP uplift before a long decline followed by a steep
recovery that heads into a period of flat future growth. This shaped recovery
is theoretically plausible but practically unlikely.
Indeed,
the growing consensus amongst local analysts is that the W-shaped recovery
remains the most likely portion of the alphabet soup of recovery outcomes
expected between 2021 and 2023. A lot, however, depends on how well the
governments at different levels handle the COVID-19 pandemic. An accelerated
spread of the disease could pivot recovery from a W-shaped recovery to an
L-shaped one with manufacturing and output sliding down and getting caught in a
low-base growth trap.
If
the virus is tackled effectively without necessitating a renewed shutdown, then
growth will progress steadily while the inflation rate falls gradually between
Q3 and Q4 2021. Without a further lockdown inflation rate may average +14.2% in 2021, as it adjusts downwards from the
recent December 2020 rate of 15.75%.
Analysts expect inflation to be above 15% in
both Q1 and Q2 2020, as food inflation remains a worrying fixture of domestic
consumer prices.
Illustration 1:
Government Policies Enacted in 2020 and Impacts on Nigerian Commodities
The
escalating insecurity in the country's farm belt as a result of incessant
attacks of farmers by gun-wielding cattle herdsmen will put pressure on
farmgate food supplies. This would worsen the preexisting farming problems of
poor road networks, the absence of bulk farm produce storage facilities, and
road levies charged by non-state actors along traditional rural to urban centre
farming routes.
Section
1 of the report takes an overview of global economies
and how they have coped with the coronavirus pandemic and the global economic
outlook for 2021. The section also looks at African economies and how they will
shape up to meet the challenges of 2021 as global supply chains become
recoupled and international trade becomes gingerly restored.
The
section dissects the Nigerian economy while delivering a few prognoses. It
noted that opening closed land borders, improving domestic healthcare
management, and creating supporting infrastructure could help to push up growth
and reduce inflation rate uncertainty. According to the report, "The recent decline in the rate of contraction could be
tied to the easing of restrictions on businesses, the reopening of
international and domestic travels, and a resumption of wholesale and retail
trading activities. The shift in the economic needle in the last three months
reflects an expected rebound in businesses but still carries the threat of a
pandemic-induced reversal accompanied by a potential fall in oil demand and
prices".
Illustration 2: Understanding the Economy; Beyond the Numbers
The
report looked at the major economic numbers that characterised 2020. It also
looked at the year beyond the numbers and settled on a few base rate
assumptions about 2021 and how economic agents look at the way things could
shape up. Section 1 equally took a position of the prospects for capital
importation, investment, consumption, monetary and fiscal policy, trade, and
domestic unemployment (see Nigeria's unemployment
distribution in illustration 3 below).
Illustration
3: Distribution of Unemployment in Nigeria
In
section 2 the report reviewed the country's major economic indicators
and drew up frameworks under which the economy could see growth in 2021.
Furthermore, the section forecasted how the various economic indicators would
fare in 2021 (see illustration 4 below)
Illustration 4: Macroeconomic Forecast
for 2021
Section
3 reported what was turning into a perfect policy storm
in 2020 and its implications for 2021. The report considered how both the
Federal Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) were
pairing up to meet the challenges of inflation, unemployment, and falling GDP
growth in addition to how the COVID-19 pandemic was wedging a spanner in the
works. The report noted that "As COVID-19 took a bite
out of economic activities and international oil prices, investors pulled back
from intended capital commitments as they decided to sit on the fence. The
uncertainty in the global economy has since hurt domestic investment flows".
Investors
are expected to return in Q2 2020 as supply chains gradually become restored
and uncertainty about the future pivots towards optimism. With COVID-19
vaccination being administered globally, economies are expected to open up as
travel numbers rise, and the hospitality sector experiences greater naira flows
as theatres, parks, event centres, and other public places gradually restore
activities to their pre-COVID-19 levels. The growth in business
activities will open the wallets of investors as they see mega naira cash flows
in the future becoming a real proposition.
Section
4 looked at how the different sectors of the economy
fared in 2020 and what the tea leaves have said about their fortunes in 2021.
The COVID-19 pandemic affected Nigeria's various economic sectors differently
with some sectors winning and others ending up with black eyes. Winners
included technology-based companies including companies in the
telecommunications and entertainment sectors. Losers included shopping malls,
cinemas, clubs, restaurants, hotels, airlines, manufacturing companies, and to
a lesser extent logistic firms.
The
section provided scenarios under which reversals could occur in each sector and
provided context for expected 2021 industry narratives.
Section
5 addressed market indicators and how financial markets
fared amid the COVID-19 pandemic. It took a scenic detour across various
markets and painted the picture of what was, is, and could be for the markets
in 2021.
Section
6 of the report concentrated on the ten megatrends that
are likely to define the economic and financial arena that Nigerians will
reside in 2021. It plays up the big moves that will shake up the world of
Nigerians the way they have known it. From changing educational templates to
flexible working arrangements, the next normal will see a shift in social
relationships and mental perception. According to the report "The new
digital work culture accelerated by the global health pandemic may lead to
permanent changes in the way people work, live, and even love".
The
report notes that "Nobody can say for now how successful a vaccine would be
in containing the spread of the virus. There are different expectations based
more on hope than science. If the vaccine works well, then economies will
revert to pre-COVID-19 outputs, incomes, and job rates within eighteen months.
Nevertheless, this is conjecture rather than fact. A lot will depend on
the vaccine's efficacy and the speed with which it is circulated and used. So
far, judging from the distribution of the vaccine in the USA and Europe,
enthusiasm appears mooted".
Section
7 concludes the report and conjectures on how Nigeria
can take advantage of the ongoing economic and health challenges to reset the
economy and establish an equitable and productive society committed to the best
of global economic and democratic practices (see
illustration 5).
Illustration 5: 10 Trends That Will
Shape 2021
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Downloadable Version of Goodbye 2020, Hello 2021, Understanding the Mega Trends of a Crucial Year for an Economy Report (PDF)
1.
Complete Report: Outlook 2021: Understanding the Mega Trends of a Crucial Year for an
Economy- Jan 28, 2021
2.
Executive Summary: Outlook 2021: Understanding the Mega Trends of
a Crucial Year for an Economy- Jan
28, 2021
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Moody's Takes
Ratings Actions on 32 Banks in Africa Following Update to Country Ceilings
Methodology
7.
Risks to
Nigerian Banks' Asset Quality Loom in 2021 and Beyond
8.
Moody's
Announces Changes in Country Ceilings Following Methodology Update
9.
Fitch Ratings
Sees Gradual Recovery for African Banks in 2021
10.
DCSL to hold its
13th Webinar Series Focused on the Year 2020 Business Review
11.
Uncertain
Recovery: 10 Macro Trends That Will Shape 2021
12.
Fitch Affirms
Seplat at 'B-'; Outlook Positive
13.
Agusto and Co
Unveils its 2020 Consumer Digital Banking Satisfaction Index
Related News on Monetary Policy
1.
Monetary and Interest
Rate Policy in 2021: Going for Growth
2.
CBN to Sustain
Expansionary Monetary Policy Till Q1, 2021 - Cordros Securities
3.
Ten MPC Members,
One Shared Outlook
4.
Further Slowdown
in PSCE Growth in November 2020
5.
Personal
Statements By The MPC Members At The 133 MPC Meeting of Nov 23-24, 2020
6.
CBN Rolls the
Dice to Tackle Market Liquidity and Dollar Dearth
7.
Implications of
CBN's Introduction of Its Special Bills to the Market
8.
CBN Introduces
Special Bills to Deepen the Financial Markets, An Additional Liquidity Mgmt
Tool
9.
Faltering
Increases in Private Sector Credit Expansion
10.
Post-November
2020 MPC View: Back to the Committee's Favoured Stance
11.
CBN Communique
No. 133 of the MPC Meeting - Nov 23-24, 2020
12.
As Expected, MPC
Retains All Key Parameters At The End of November 2020 Meeting
13.
Monetary Policy
Committee Decision Preview: MPC Expected to Retain Policy Parameters - Access
Bank
14.
A Pause to
Reflect from the MPC
15.
LDR Policy: Over
One Year After, Where Are We?
16.
Monetary Policy
Response in Emerging Market Economies: Why Was it Different this Time?
17.
Endorsement of
the CBN's Development Finance
18.
Slowdown in the
Expansion of PSCE
19.
Personal
Statements By The MPC Members At The 132 MPC Meeting of Sep 21-22, 2020
20.
MPC Surprise
Rate Cut: Limited Impact on Credit Growth
21.
LDR Policy:
Plausible But Insufficient to Stimulate Growth
22.
Banks Lend, the
CBN Pushes Forbearance
23.
Low Liquidity
Expected to Dampen Impact of Lower Rates
24.
Possible
Implications of MPC's 100bps Policy Rate Cut
25.
CBN Communique
No. 132 of the MPC Meeting - Sep 21-22, 2020
26.
CBN MPC Reduces
MPR to 11.50%, Retains Other Parameters After Sept 2020 Meeting
27.
An Eye into
Possible MPC Outcomes
28.
MPC Preview:
Balancing FX Stability and Moderating Economic Contraction
29.
Several Pointers
to Same Again From the MPC
30.
Implications of
CBN's Downward Review of the Interest Rate on Savings Deposit
Related News on Fiscal
Policy
2.
SERAP Calls for
Simplification of Government Processes for COVID-19 Management in Nigeria
3.
SERAP Calls for
No Budget Allocation to MDAs That Fail to Remit to Federation Account
4.
FGN Revises
Excise Regime and Removes Import Duty on Materials Used in The Production of
Banknotes
5.
DMO Clarifies
China's Loans to Nigeria; Economic Viability and Revenue Issues Left Out
6.
Taiwo Oyedele To
Speak on Nigeria's Fiscal Sustainability Tomorrow on WebTV
7.
Suleyman Ndanusa
To Speak on Nigeria's Revenue Diversification Tomorrow on WebTV
8.
Addendum to the
2020 - 2022 MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper
9.
LCCI Report
Affirms Need for Fiscal Authorities to Act
10.
Framework for
the Management of COVID-19 Funds in Nigeria under the Treasury Single Account
11.
COVID-19:
Federal Government Exempts Medical Supplies from VAT and Import Duty
12.
Stimulant is
Necessary but not Sufficient - FDC
13.
Fiscal Position:
Still Critical but Temporary Panacea in Sight
14.
Pick and Mix in
Nigeria's Response to the COVID-19 Virus - FBNQuest
15.
FG Adds to
Armory for COVID-19 Showdown
16.
COVID-19:
Federal Government of Nigeria Announces Fiscal Stimulus Measures
17.
Fiscal and
Monetary Responses to COVID-19 Menace: Racing Against Time
18.
FG Launches
Financial Transparency Policy Portal
19.
Treasury Single
Account - The Puerto Rican Government Earned $49m in Interest Fiscal YTD
20.
Friedrich Hayek
and The Price System: The Future Of Classical Liberalism and The Free Market
21.
Economic and
Institutional Restructuring for the Next Nigeria - Soludo
22.
How Government
Policy Affects Business , Society In National Development and Changing
Environment
23.
Nigeria's Fiscal
Quandary: A Revenue Problem Or A Debt Problem?
24.
Irrespective of
Who Wins 2019 Elections, ERGP Should Be Sustained - Toyin Sanni
25.
2019-2021 MTEF
and Fiscal Strategy - First Fiscal Projections Through to 2021
26.
Government Role
In The Economy - Differentiating Policies And What Elections2019 Comes Down To
27.
Federal
Government releases 2018 Fiscal Policy Measures
28.
Buhari Signs
Bills Granting Financial Autonomy To State Assembly And Judiciary; Signs 3
Others
29.
NESG leads
Discourse on Low Carbon Investments Opportunities in Nigeria
30.
NESG establishes
Nigeria Fiscal Policy Roundtable to help boost government revenues
Related News on Nigerian Economy
1.
Nigerian GDP
Better Than Thought
2.
Inflation Spikes
Despite Harvest and Land Border Re-opening
3.
Nigeria's Misery
Index Rises as Inflation Reaches 15.75%
4.
FGN to Convert
CBN Loans to Tradable Securities as Debt Soars
5.
Headline
Inflation Increases by 15.75% YoY In December 2020, 0.86% Higher Than November
2020 Rate
6.
FGN's External
Debt Service Obligations Reached a Total of US$507m in Q3 2020
7.
Nigeria's High
Recurrent Costs, Low Revenue and Escalating Debt Numbers
8.
62.18% of
Nigeria's Total Public Debt as of Q3 2020 Was Domestic - NBS
9.
Q4 2020
Macroeconomic and Markets Report - Growth Expectations Remain Gloomy for Nigerian
Economy
10.
Rising Crude Oil
Prices and the Nigerian Economy
11.
COVID-19
Containment and ESP Implementation Key for Nigeria's Economic Recovery - Prof.
Akpan Ekpo
12.
Q3 2020 Debt
Stock: World Bank Almost The Largest External Creditor
13.
Headline
Inflation to Continue its Runaway Trend in December 2020
14.
FGN's Domestic
Debt Service on a Plateau, Totalled N604bn in Q3 2020
16.
PMI Reading No
93: A Seasonal High for the Year
17.
Nigeria's Public
Debt Stock as of September 30, 2020 Stood at N32.22trn
18.
The Year 2020 in
Retrospect: A Bleak Year for Households
19.
All Commodity
Group Import Index Rose by 1.89% in Q3 2020 - NBS
21.
PMI Readings
Show Pessimism in the Month of December 2020
22. FGN's Q3 2020
Deficit on Target, Spending Compressed
23. CBN Poll:
Respondent Firms Expect the Naira to Depreciate Next Month
24. Economic Crisis
to Sink 7million People into Poverty in Nigeria
25.
Revenue
Collection Again Below Benchmark in Q3 2020
26. CBN Poll: 60.8%
of Respondents Believe Nigerian Economy would End Up Weaker if Prices Rise
Faster
27.
Interest Rates
on the Rise
28. The Nigeria's FX
Crisis: Overarching Consequences of Insecurity and Structural Deficiency
Special Reports & Publications
1.
Oil and Gas:
Working the New Normal in the Time of a Pandemic
2.
Banks in H1
2020: Imagining Beyond COVID-19
3.
Online
Trading Ranking Report 2020 - Trading in a Period of a Virus; Building Good
Habits
4.
Banks
in H1 2020: Imagining Beyond COVID-19
5.
CEO Remuneration
2020 Report: Between 2019 and 2020; Understanding The New Realities
6.
Memo To AMCON:
Nigerian Tax Payers are not Responsible for Repayment of Bad Debt
7.
Coronanomics (1)
- Understanding the Realities of an Impending Recession
8.
Bank NPLs - The Case for a New Industry Approach
9.
NCM2020 - Fin.
MKT in Transition: Understanding Past Uncertainties; Preparing for New
Possibilities
10.
Banks' H1 2019
Numbers: Top Line Growth, Bottom Line Uncertainty
11.
Budget 2019: The
Hidden Monsters
12.
Surviving
Uncertain Times in the Nigerian Financial Market
13.
The Rich, The Poor and Buharinomics
14.
Nigerian Banks-
Performance - H1 2018
15.
AMCON and Financial Services Debt Burden in Nigeria
16.
Poverty Tracker
and Nigeria: Raising The Red Flag
17.
POCKET
Economics: Addressing Income Inequality
18.
The Silent Drug
Epidemic: A Gathering Storm
19.
Judging IMF’s
Position on Development Indices
20.
Money Market:
The Folk Road
21.
The Headache of
Missing Targets
22.
2018 Outlook on
the Nigerian Economy: The Need for an Even Keel
23.
Nigeria External
Economy and the White Noise of Import Dependency
24.
States and the
Rising Weight of Debt
25.
Money Supply:
Reeling from Policy Response