Outlook 2021: How Sectors of the Economy Fared in 2020 - Finance and Insurance Sector

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Saturday, February 20, 2021   /05:40 AM / By Proshare Research/ Header Image Credit: EcoGraphics


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The financial services sector recorded an improvement in its quarterly growth rate, despite the challenging macroeconomic environment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and ENDSARS protest which caused lockdowns and restrictions in major cities of the nation. Most financial institutions had before these crises set-up digital platforms and FinTech platforms which aided in business continuity, although operational cost increased as stated in their results.

 

A downside of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is the increase in non-performing loans,  especially for banks that are largely exposed to the oil and gas sector. The fall in oil prices and the volatility in the oil and gas sector hurt the financial position of the Oil & Gas companies which will lead to defaults in loans and an increase in bad loans and impairment charges of the financial institutions.

 

However, in the case of the insurance sub-sector, the financial position is expected to decline at the end of the year as huge claims will likely be paid for businesses that were insured and were adversely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and ENDSARS protest. Furthermore, gross premiums are also expected to rise as there will be a huge demand for insurance services (see Page 122 & 123 Coronanomics Report by Proshare for the impact of COVID-19 on banks and insurance companies).

 

The financial and insurance sector recorded a growth of +20.79% in Q1 2020, which was the highest growth rate of the financial and insurance sector in 16 quarters. In Q2 2020, the growth rate declined to +18.49% while in Q3 2020, the sector grew slightly by +3.21% (see Chart 51).

 

Chart 51: Financial and Insurance Sector Growth Rate 2016 - 2020 (%)

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Source: NBS, Proshare Research

 

Case Study

 

Zenith Bank Plc

Zenith Bank is engaged in the provision of banking and other financial services to corporate and individual customers. The Bank's segments include corporate, retail banking, and pension custodial services. 2020 results (Q1 - Q3 2020) released by the Bank shows improvement in its earnings and profitability for 2020 when compared to the period in 2019. However, on quarter-on-quarter performance in 2020, the Bank recorded declines in earnings and profitability especially in Q3 2020 results which reflects the impact of the pandemic on banking operations.

 

The share price movement of the bank responded to investor sentiment which was greatly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic.  Investors were also skeptical as to how the operations of the financial institution will be impacted by the pandemic. The share price of the bank fell as low as N12 during the peak of the pandemic which was in March 2020. In May, there was a gradual uptick in the share price, while towards the end of the year, the share price rose above the pre-pandemic price of the stock (see Chart 52).

 

Chart 52: Zenith Bank's YTD Share Price Movement as of 14th Dec 2020

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Source: NSE, Proshare Research

 

Zenith Bank - Gross Earnings

The tier 1 Bank's 2020 result shows improvement in its earnings when compared to the same period in 2019. Although, its Q-o-Q performance shows a decline in earnings.

 

In Q2 2020, gross earnings increased significantly by +107.47% on a Q-o-Q basis. Conversely, in Q3 2020, the Bank recorded a -52.93% Q-o-Q decline in gross earnings. However, in the same period, gross earnings grew marginally by +2.01% Y-o-Y (see Chart 53).

 

Chart 53: Zenith Bank's Gross Earnings 2019 - 2020 (N'bn)

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Source: Zenith Bank Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Zenith Bank - Profit Before Tax

The profit before tax of the Nigerian lender did not record significant improvement in its quarterly results released in 2020 when compared to the same periods in 2019. In Q2 2020, profit before tax grew significantly by +94.13% Q-o-Q and on a Y-o-Y basis for the same period, PBT grew marginally by +2.19%.

 

In Q3 2020, PBT declined significantly by -44.66% Q-o-Q while on a Y-o-Y basis, profit before tax declined marginally by -2.09% from N64.5bn in Q3 2019 to N63.16bn in Q3 2020 (see Chart 54).


Chart 54: Zenith Bank's Profit Before Tax 2019 - 2020 (N'bn)

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Source: Zenith Bank Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Zenith Bank - Impairment Charges

In Q2 2020, Zenith Bank recorded its highest impairment charges between Q1 - Q3 2020. The impairment charge for Q2 2020 was N23.92bn, that is, over a 500% increase from N3.95bn in Q1 2020. On a Y-o-Y basis, its Q2 2020 impairment charge was up by +74.18%.

 

However, in Q3 2020, impairment charges declined significantly by a -104.95% Q-o-Q, while it declined by -73.81% on a Y-o-Y basis (see Chart 55).

 

Chart 55: Zenith Bank's Impairment Charge 2019 - 2020 (N'bn)

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Source: Zenith Bank Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Zenith Bank - Non-Performing Loan Ratio

The non-performing loan ratio of Zenith Bank in Q3 2020 was +4.80%, the highest the bank recorded in its quarterly results released in 2020. Its NPL ratio declined in Q3 2020 when compared to Q3 2019 which was 4.95%.

 

Zenith Bank's FY 2019 result the oil and gas sector accounted for 30.75% of the Bank's NPL and was closely followed by the communication sector which accounted for 29.47% of NPL by sector. The latest result released by the Bank (Q3 2020) shows that the oil and gas sector accounted for 40.05% of NPL, followed by the communications sector which accounted for 22.1% of the bank's NPL ratio. This indicates that the bank is highly exposed to the oil and gas sector, therefore, its earnings and profitability will be negatively impacted by happenings in the oil and gas sector (see Chart 56).

 

Chart 56: Zenith Bank's Non-Performing Loan Ratio 2019 - 2020

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Source: Zenith Bank Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Zenith Bank - Total Assets

The growth of Zenith Bank's total assets between Q1 2019 to Q3 2020 has been steady. In Q3 2020, its total assets grew by +5.19% Q-o-Q, while on a Y-o-Y basis total asset was up significantly by +33.37% from N5.98trn in Q3 2019 to N7.97trn in Q3 2020. This was majorly driven by a +96.88% growth in cash and bank balances with central banks, a +84.95% increase in investment securities, and an increase in treasury bills and loans and advances by +23 .92% and +32.69% respectively (see Chart 57).


Chart 57: Zenith Bank's Total Assets 2019 - 2020 (N'trn)

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Source: Zenith Bank Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Zenith Bank - Total Equity 

Zenith Bank's total equity also grew steadily between Q1 2019 to Q3 2019. In Q3 2020, total shareholders' equity increased by +4.59% Q-0-Q while it grew by +18.63% Y-o-Y. Major drivers of the Y-o-Y growth in total equity were the retained earnings and other reserve components of the shareholders' equity which both grew by +26.77% and +27.41% respectively (see Chart 58).


 Chart 58: Zenith Bank's Total Equity 2019 - 2020 (N'bn)

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Source: Zenith Bank Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Zenith Bank - Leverage Ratio

Its leverage ratio for 2020 (Q1 - Q3 2020) saw a steady rise. This was because of the steady rise in the total debt of the Bank, despite the steady rise in total equity. In Q3 2020, the leverage ratio was 0.54 higher than 0.42 recorded in Q2 2020 and higher than 0.49 in Q3 2019 (see Chart 59)


Chart 59: Zenith Bank's Leverage Ratio 2019 - 2020

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Source: Zenith Bank Financial Statement, Proshare Research

 

Zenith Bank - Liquidity Ratio

The liquidity ratio recorded during the period under review (Q1 2019 - Q3 2020) is well above the regulatory minimum of 30%. In Q3 2020, the liquidity ratio was 67.40% higher than 50.80% recorded in Q2 2020 (see Chart 60).


Chart 60: Zenith Bank's Liquidity Ratio 2019 - 2020

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Source: Zenith Bank Financial Statement, Proshare Research


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Downloadable Version of Goodbye 2020, Hello 2021, Understanding the Mega Trends of a Crucial Year for an Economy Report (PDF)

1.     Complete Report: Outlook 2021: Understanding the Mega Trends of a Crucial Year for an Economy- Jan 28, 2021

2.     Executive Summary: Outlook 2021: Understanding the Mega Trends of a Crucial Year for an Economy- Jan 28, 2021


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