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Monday, February 22, 2021 /04:20 AM / By Proshare Research/ Header Image Credit: EcoGraphics
Total Turnover of Fixed Income and Currency Market Turnover
The
total turnover of the fixed income and FX market was choppy from the beginning
of the year as global economic shortfalls had a severe impact on the
market. The total turnover of the market
started to decline in April 2020. The decline was driven by the downturn in
economic activities both in the global and domestic economy caused by the
COVID-19 pandemic. As economies began opening gradually, activities in the
market also recorded slight increases. Despite the increase in activities
recorded, the headwinds plaguing the market lingers.
The
total turnover of the fixed income and currency market was N195.42trn between
January-November 2020. In March 2020, it recorded the highest turnover between
January - November 2020 of N25.66trn. While in May 2020, the lowest market
turnover was recorded.
The
OMO bill was the highest contributor to the total turnover of the market
between January - November 2020, next were the foreign exchange transactions
then the money market transactions which include the Repurchase Agreement
(Repos) and Unsecured placements/Taking. Treasury bills transaction contributed
the least to the total turnover of the market during the period under review (see Chart
69).
With
fresh restrictions and lockdowns from the second wave of COVID-19 in Nigeria
and around the globe, analysts believe that getting back to the pre-COVID era
is still farfetched. Also, it is predicted that we may likely see a recovery
and significant increase in transactions in the debt market by Q2 2021.
Chart 69: Fixed Income and Currency Market Turnover Dec 2019 - Nov 2020 (N'trn)
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
A Deep Dive into The Market Complexities in 2020
FX Turnover
The
currency market was hard hit in 2020, as the oil sector which is Nigeria's
largest FX earner of the economy was hit by twin evils i.e., the fall in oil
demand caused by the pandemic and the KSA-Russia price war. The CBN rolled out
several management policies to support the downward trend of the Naira both on
the I & E FX window and parallel market space, as the domestic currency
almost spiralled out of control. It introduced policies such as lifting
restrictions on diaspora remittances, weekly sale of FX to over 5000 BDC
operators, and the devaluation of the domestic currency. The impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy led to the significant decline in
Nigeria's Foreign portfolio investment in Q3 by -91.55%
when compared with Q1 2020 and -86.55% when
compared with Q3 2019.
The
total FX turnover between January - November 2020 was $160.52bn representing a -24.24% decline from total FX turnover for the same
period in 2019. Also, the total turnover of the currency market stood at $10.88bn
(N4.21trn) in November 2020, the highest it recorded since April 2020. However,
on a Y-o-Y basis, total turnover of the currency market declined by -47.21% (see Chart 70).
Chart 70: Total
FX Turnover Dec 2019 - Nov 2020 ($bn)
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
FX
turnover by trade recorded a general decline in all categories. Member-Client
was the largest contributor to total FX turnover between January - November
2020 recording $97.12bn for the period while Member-CBN and Inter-Member
recorded $43.18bn and $20.22bn, respectively.
In
November 2020, Member-Client declined by -39.88%
Y-o-Y. However, the segment declined more significantly by -50.0% YTD. It contributed 69.41%
to the overall decline in FX turnover by trade segment in November 2020. Inter-Member
activity fell by +47.85% Y-o-Y to $1.58bn from $3.03bn
recorded in November 2019, while on YTD, the segment declined by -51.53%. It contributed 14.52% to the overall decline
for November 2020.
Member-CBN
transactions declined by -63.14% Y-o-Y to $2.02bn
from $5.48bn recorded in November 2019, it also declined by -69.07% Y-o-Y. It contributed 18.57% to the overall
decline of the FX turnover by trade for the period (see Table 18).
Table 18: FX
Turnover by Trade July 2019 - July 2020
Fixed
Income Market
Towards
the end of 2019, the Federal Government of Nigeria bifurcated the bills (T.
bills and OMO bills). The rates of T. bills have been on a steady decline with
rates as low as 1.15% recorded in August 2020. Treasury bills fell to record
lows in 2020, because of increased demand for government instruments owing to a
flight to safety by both institutional and retail investors. Also, the slim
investment opportunities in the domestic market pushed yields to depressing
levels. Prices move inversely to yields, that is, an increase in demand for
these instruments pushes the yields down. The highest average discount rates of
T. bills at the primary market were recorded in January 2020, the rates started
to decline in March and continued for the rest of the year.
The
Nigerian treasury bills market contributed 54.13% to the total turnover of
the fixed income and currency market. Average discount rates at the primary
market for the 91-day T-bill for 2020 was 1.63%, while the 182-day and 364-day
notes were 2.15%
and 3.45%
respectively.
Oversubscription
of the Nigerian treasury bills was the norm in the fixed income market for the
year 2020 due to increased demand for the instrument. However, the oversubscription
trend gradually declined towards the end of the year. Despite the reduction in
oversubscription, the instruments oversubscription persisted in the year. In
January 2020, 91-day was oversubscribed by 792.48% while the 182-day and
364-day T. bills were oversubscribed by 230.56%, and 43.79% respectively. In August
2020, the same tenors were oversubscribed by 53.07%, 77.54%, and 7.64%
respectively, while the 364-day bill was undersubscribed. The decline in the
oversubscription trend could be attributed to depressed yields and a move to
the Nigerian equity market by investors (see Chart 71).
Chart 71: Average Discount Rate for T. Bills at the
Primary Market 2020 (%)
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
The FGN Bond also recorded declines in marginal rates at the primary auction market, average rates across all tenors for 2020 was 9.38%, which is lower than the 14.05% recorded in 2019 (see Table 19).
Table 19: FGN
Bond Coupon Rates in 2020
The
oversubscription trend was also seen in the bonds market; however, long-term
instruments were oversubscribed more than the short-term and mid-term
instruments.
At
the secondary market, bond yields fell below 1% in Q4 2020. Also, bonds
issued in December were revised downward before their issue, and the amount
allotted was lower than what was offered.
For
the FGN savings bond, the offer for subscription was suspended during the peak
periods of the pandemic. This could be attributed to efforts by the government
to encourage people to spend in a pandemic rather than save. Offering savings
bond auction during the peak of the pandemic would have been counterproductive
as the government was also involved with quantitative easing during the period.
Inflation-adjusted
yields across all tenors of Treasury bills and government bonds were negative
in 2020.
Total
Money Market Turnover
The
total turnover of the money market for the year 2020 (January - November) was
N40.64trn, which represents 20.8% of the total turnover of the fixed income and
currency market. The total turnover in the money market declined Y-o-Y by -6.40% from N43.42trn recorded in the same period in
2019 to N40.64trn in 2020. This was majorly driven by a -44.29% Y-o-Y decline in unsecured placements/takings while
repos/buy-Backs declined Y-o-Y by -6.95% to
N38.82trn recorded for the period (see Chart 72).
Chart 72: Total Turnover in the Money Market Jan -
Nov 2020 (N'trn)
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
Money
market instruments have little or no risk as they are backed by the full faith
of the Federal Government. Therefore, rates react to the risk appetite of investors
amid a tumultuous economy. For the Nigerian fixed income market, the rates
responded to the pandemic-induced economy and the slim investment opportunities
available. Rates were highest during the peak of the pandemic and declined
towards the end of the year which indicated robust liquidity in the system.
Furthermore,
money market rates were volatile for most of the trading session in 2020.
Overnight (O/N) and Open Buyback (OBB) moved in the same direction in 2020,
although, O/N rates recorded higher rates than the OBB. O/N and OBB recorded
their highest rate of 2020 in March and June respectively, while rates started
to decline at the tail end of the year (see Chart 73).
Chart 73: Average O/N and OBB Rates Dec 2019 - Nov
2020
Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research
FGN Eurobond
The price and yield movement of a eurobond
instrument is largely impacted by the health of the issuing country. In
Nigeria's case, the FGN eurobond instrument is considered a risky instrument as
the economy is highly dependent on foreign earnings from oil which is
exogenously determined. Therefore, the movement in price and yield of the FGN
Eurobond was majorly driven by movement in oil price and most recently the
COVID-19 pandemic. Also, news of the US stimulus package and the vaccine for
the coronavirus boosted investor confidence in the instrument as yields
declined and the price rose towards the end of the year (Prices move inversely
with yields).
The price index movement of the FGN
Eurobond had a bullish flag for 2020, at the peak of the pandemic, the price
index fell as low as 77.61. However, with the gradual reopening of economies
and hope for economic recoveries across major economies, the price index picked
up at the tail end of the year i.e., the price index was higher than the
pre-COVID era. It rose YTD by +4.79% as of
30th December 2020 (see Chart 74).
Chart 74: FGN Eurobond YTD Price Index for 6.75%
US$500m Jan 2020
Source: Cbonds, Proshare Research
Outlook for The Fixed Income
and Currency Market
COVID-19 has been an economic and human
disaster. However, with the roll-out of various vaccines and subsequent
approvals from major economies, there is cautious optimism that the next new
normal will emerge sooner than expected. The year 2021 will be a year of
transition and gradual recovery for the Nigerian economy, despite concerns that
the low yields in the fixed income environment will unlikely change.
The scale of fiscal/quantitative easing in
response to the COVID-19 crisis was unprecedented both for global economies and
the domestic economy in 2020. G-20 countries' fiscal packages are estimated at
more than $10trn, while for the Nigerian economy debt stock as of Q3 2020 was
$84.57bn with total external debt accounting for 37.82%
of the total debt stock and domestic debt 62.18%
of the total debt.
Maintaining fiscal deficits and the
elevated levels of public indebtedness may pose serious challenges down the
line for the FGN bonds market. However, for the corporate bonds and commercial
papers (CPs), there is headroom for improvement in 2021. In the pre-COVID
years, the yields from fixed income instruments were in double digits, however,
going forward, that may not be the case for the fixed income market. To enhance
yield for the FGN bonds and treasuries, investors may consider investing in
longer-term instruments and slightly extend the duration of these instruments.
Also, risk-tolerant investors may consider focusing on assets that will do well
during periods of rising inflation such as real estate, commodities, and
equities i.e., equities recorded a performance of +50.03%
in 2020.
Investing in fixed income products is
subject to certain risks including the interest rate and inflation. Analysts
believe the equity market is likely to outperform the fixed income and currency
market in 2021, although the market is very volatile. To navigate volatility,
government bonds, and CPs of companies with good fundamentals and brand
reputation may provide the most efficient buffer against equity volatility.
As mentioned earlier, there is headroom for
improvement in raising CPs and corporate bonds by corporate institutions as it
is cheaper to raise debt in the debt market than loans from commercial banks.
In 2020, the likes of Dangote Cement, MTN Nigeria, and several others were able
to issue over N300bn in CPs at different series which were mostly
oversubscribed (see Table 20).
Table 20: Commercial
Papers Issued in 2020
The trend of oversubscription is also
expected to continue in 2021 as there are tight investment opportunities and
institutional investors such as the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) of the
National Pension Commission (PenCom) are mandated to invest a large percentage
of Pension Funds in instruments backed by the full faith of the Federal
Government. While in investing in corporate bonds or commercial papers such
instruments must have a minimum credit rating of 'BBB' issued by at least two
rating agencies. Going forward, investors may consider looking at the
fundamentals of corporate institutions and not just sentiments before investing.
Currencies: Navigating Grey Skies
On the currency front, the dollar in the
global market will most likely continue its bearish trend which started at the
tail end of 2020. It is forecasted that there will be a positive appetite for
risky currencies especially currencies of emerging markets, which will likely
trend upwards if the current momentum of recovery is sustained. However, a
lockdown will reverse this trajectory if there is further spread of the new
strain of the coronavirus.
In 2020, the CBN adjusted/devalued the
naira on three occasions to ease the pressure on the domestic currency and to
reduce the gap between official rates and parallel rates as this was one of the
conditions needed to be met by the Federal Government to access some multilateral
loan instrument. Despite CBN's efforts, Nigeria's lower FX earnings widened the
gap between the two markets. The decline in FX inflows also put pressure on the
foreign reserves, as of 30 December 2020 foreign reserves had declined by -8.25% YTD.
Although the inflow of foreign loans and a
slight uptick in oil prices managed to ensure some level of stability of the
foreign reserves, this approach is not sustainable in the long term in ensuring
a stable exchange rate. A longer-term solution could be improving non-oil
export competitiveness significantly to diversify FX earnings for the economy.
According to the CBN, it injected $4.37bn
in Q3 into the foreign exchange market as part of its efforts to ensure the
stability of the Naira. These efforts by the CBN are expected to continue going
forward in 2021. Although the Naira is expected to marginally depreciate,
however, this depends on various factors and uncertainties such as the price
and volume sold of crude oil which is largely beyond the control of the
Nigerian government (see Illustration 45).
Illustration 45: Currency Matrix: Solving A Jigsaw Puzzle
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