Higher Debt Burdens Raise Debt Sustainability Concerns in West Africa

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Monday, February 17, 2020 /03:42 PM / By Moody's Investors Service / Header Image Credit: Camden News

 

  • Togo, and to some extent, Ghana, Nigeria are among those facing risks to debt sustainability. Mali and Niger are vulnerable to shocks.
  • Senegal and Ivory Coast have the highest external debt private creditors but have the best financial management capacity

 

Government debt burdens have grown in all rated ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) countries, offsetting much of the debt relief from the early 2000s and raising concerns over debt sustainability, Moody's Investors Service said in a report today.

 

"Debt burdens in the ECOWAS are now almost double what they were in 2010 and are unlikely to fall, raising concerns about debt sustainability, with potentially significant economic and social costs," said Lucie Villa, a Moody's Vice President - Senior Credit Officer and the report's co-author.

 

Risks to debt sustainability include adverse debt dynamics, weak financeability and debt management capacity. These factors are particularly present in Togo (B3 stable), and to some extent, Ghana (B3 positive) and Nigeria (B2 negative).

 

For some sovereigns in the region, improved institutional strength and shock-absorption capacity bolster their ability to sustain higher debt burdens compared with 10 years ago. For instance, the positive outlook on Ghana's rating reflects our view that institutional improvements will help the government manage potential shocks and avoid a sharp and self-fulfilling increase in debt.

 

Although Nigeria's debt levels are low, debt dynamics are becoming adverse and fiscal metrics are deteriorating while debt management capacity remains weak. Others, including Mali (B3 stable) and Niger (B3 stable), have more sustainable debt burdens under Moody's central scenarios but they remain vulnerable to shocks that could materially increase their debt burdens and undermine their debt sustainability.

 

More highly rated Senegal (Ba3 stable) and Cote d'Ivoire (Ba3 stable) have the highest external debt owed to private creditors as a share of GDP, but have the best financial management capacity.


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