ARM H1 2018 Strategy Outlook


Monday, February 05, 2018 /05:15 PM / ARM Research 

2018 is shaping up to be a year defined by improved economic fundamentals but continued uncertainty. While consensus has developed around a lower interest rate environment, timing and direction of fiscal and monetary policy are anything but certain, and the combined effect of both is unpredictable.

It seems that wherever investors look, there are reasons to be cautious of the political climate and its impact on policies. More so, while a confluence of subdued inflation and stable currency may guide to a cut in the MPR, the delayed confirmation of MPC members and the incoming expiration of the tenure of the CBN governor creates another layer of uncertainty.

For one thing, the political landscape remains treacherous. Downside risks from energy and electricity prices, disruption in oil production, elevated domestic issuances and excessive government spending all have the potential to send markets into a tailspin this year.

Overall, one thread runs through our views of the economy for 2018: a possible game of two halves wherein the first half looks brighter than the latter.

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NSR H1 2018 (11) – Fixed Income: The unstoppable force of liquidity
NSR H1 2018 (10) – Nigerian Fiscal: Sharper Picture but still blurry
NSR H1 2018 (9) – Inflation has peaked, but downside risks remain
NSR H1 2018 (8) – Currency: NGN Cautiously Constructive for 2018
NSR H1 2018 (7) – Balance of Payment Visibly losing size but gaining weight
NSR H1 2018 (6) – GDP Juggling optimism on a tightrope
NSR H1 2018 (5) - Crude Oil Sunny with a chance of Rain
NSR H1 2018 (4)- Commodity prices crater from supply glut
NSR H1 2018 (3)- Constructive Flows to EMs But Headwind Prospers
NSR H1 2018 - Africa Economy Back From The Brink
NSR H1 2018 (1) - Growth: Riding on the Swing of Improved Fundamentals

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Related News from ARM’s Q4 2017 Nigeria Strategy Report

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