Thursday, January 18, 2018 6.00PM / Proshare WebTV
Notable economist Dr Doyin Salami believes that in 2018 achieving inclusive economic growth, should constitute the major thrust of public and private policy makers in Nigeria.
He made this view at the launch of the 2018 Nigeria Economic Summit Group Nigeria macro-economic outlook in Lagos.
Dr Salami said Nigeria’s economic outlook has brightened considerably, but noted that the challenge for the country was how to take advantage of the improved outlook.
According to him “The External environment looks good, the question is will the domestic policy environment take the hard decisions”.
Salami also raised the point that two issues will be critical to assess in the year 2018, namely; The role of prices in resource allocation and the Ideal rates for the foreign exchange market.
The economist called on policy makers to drive cohesive growth, that guarantee peace and stability in the country.
Speaking further on the Nigeria’s growth, he made a strong case for inclusive economic growth which is vital for Africa’s largest economy.
Considering the pre-election year, Salami called for the speedy passage and signing of bills that cater for infrastructure, before the general elections.
This according to him will create the enabling environment for the access to private capital investments in the infrastructure, which is a potential game changer.
Head, Research NESG Dr. Olusegun Omisakin giving a presentation on the 2018 Nigeria-economic outlook, gave three scenarios for the economy in 2018.
The First Scenario is the Optimistic case has the following assumptions if crude oil price averages $67 per barrel, crude oil production averages 2.3ml bpd, high policy efficiency in the range of 0.5 to 1 then the Outcome will be real GDP of 3.5%, inflation rate of 15%, 30% increase in government revenue to net N3.6trl, exchange rate stabilization and unemployment rate of 30%.
Second Scenario is Business as Usual has the following assumptions if crude oil price averages $60 per barrel, Crude oil production averages 1.9ml bpd, moderate policy efficiency 0.4% t0 0.4, the outcome will be real GDP grows 2.3%, inflation rate stood at 16%, 25% increase in government revenue to net N2.44trl, exchange rate faces moderate pressure due to 2019 uncertainties and unemployment reaches 35%.
Third Scenario is Pessimistic case has the following assumptions crude oil price averaging $48 per barrel, crude oil production averaging 1.4ml bpd, low policy efficiency -0.5 to -1, the outcome will be real GDP growth of 1.5%, inflation rate of 17%, 7% decrease to net N1.85trl, unemployment/underemployment increases to 44% and exchange rate faces significant pressure due to 2019 uncertainties.
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