Reviews & Outlooks | |
Reviews & Outlooks | |
1523 VIEWS | |
![]() |
Fitch
Ratings has revised the Outlook on Kaduna State's Long-Term Foreign- and
Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to Negative from Stable and
affirmed the IDRs at 'B'.
Under EU credit rating agency (CRA) regulation, the publication of International Public Finance reviews is subject to restrictions and must take place according to a published schedule, except where it is necessary for CRAs to deviate from this in order to comply with their legal obligations. Fitch interprets this provision as allowing us to publish a rating review in situations where there is a material change in the creditworthiness of the issuer that we believe makes it inappropriate for us to wait until the next scheduled review date to update the rating or Outlook/Watch status. The next scheduled review date for Kaduna is 18 September 2020.
Following the recent
downgrade of Nigeria's IDRs (see Fitch
Downgrades Nigeria to 'B'; Outlook Negative dated 6 April 2020) we have
revised Kaduna's Outlooks to Negative as its Outlooks move in tandem with the
sovereign's.
Related
Link: Fitch Downgrades Nigeria to 'B'; Outlook
Negative
The ratings also reflect
the state's dependence on oil-related transfers from the Federal Government of
Nigeria (FGN), which makes the state's revenue base quite sensitive to oil
prices swings. The ratings further consider Kaduna's growing debt to fund
necessary capex for the development of basic infrastructures and social
services.
While Nigerian local and regional governments' (LRG) most recently available issuer data may not have indicated performance impairment, material changes in revenue and cost profiles are occurring across the sector and likely to worsen in the coming weeks and months as economic activity suffers and government restrictions are maintained or broadened. Fitch's ratings are forward-looking in nature, and we will monitor developments in the sector for their severity and duration, and incorporate revised base- and rating-case qualitative and quantitative inputs based on performance expectations and assessment of key risks.
HIGH
Sovereign Cap
Kaduna's IDRs are
currently aligned with the sovereign's and its Outlooks reflect those on the
sovereign. A further downgrade of the sovereign's ratings will be mirrored on
Kaduna's ratings.
LOW
Risk Profile: 'Vulnerable'
Fitch has assessed Kaduna's risk profile, or debt tolerance, at Vulnerable, which combines five factors at Weaker and one factor at Midrange (expenditure adjustability).
Revenue Robustness:
'Weaker'
About 50% of Kaduna's
NGN100 billion operating revenue at end-2019 depends on allocations of oil
revenue transferred monthly from the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee
(FAAC), which are expected to decline by more than 40% in 2020 following the
sharp decrease in oil prices. The decline in transfers will not be offset with
the VAT expected increase to 7.5% from 5.0%, which could bring an additional
NGN6 billion additional revenue, by Fitch's estimates. Improvements in
internally generated revenue (IGR), which grew by over 50% according to
preliminary 2019 financials versus 2018, could halt if Nigeria enters into a
new recession and/or if lockdown measures are prolonged.
Revenue Adjustability:
'Weaker'
Kaduna's revenue potential
depends on the state's ability to expand its tax bases, both in terms of
broadening the pool of taxpayers and enforcing tax compliance. The main fiscal
revenues are pay-as-you-earn taxes, on which Kaduna cannot set the tax rate,
and land charges, for which Kaduna is implementing measures to expand the tax
base. The ability to enlarge the pay-as-you-earn tax base is limited by the low
level of income of the population, with over 50% living below the poverty line.
Expenditure
Sustainability: 'Weaker'
Kaduna's varied set of
responsibilities ranges from education (25%), healthcare (15%), economic
development (over 15%), energy and environment (around 8%). Past expenditure
dynamics show a good track record of cost control, with operating revenue and
expenditure growing on average at the same pace in 2010-2018, around 7.5%-8.0%.
Under its revised
scenarios of a stressed economy, Fitch expects expenditure to grow above
revenue in 2020 and then adjust in 2021-2024, as the state copes with the
minimum wage increase for public employees amid declining revenue. The
operating margin will remain in positive territory, but is expected to decline
below 15% in case of prolonged lockdown measures calling for more support from
the state for the economy and healthcare.
Expenditure Adjustability:
'Midrange'
There are no mandatory
balanced budget rules defined by the central government for states, which are
required to keep their deficits at 3% of national GDP. Kaduna's cost structure
is moderately flexible, as an average 40% of expenditure is capex, which is largely
financed with the operating balance and can be delayed in case of need, as
occurred during the last recession in 2015-2016. In Fitch's view, expenditure
reduction is moderately affordable given the high potential to increase the
existing level of healthcare and infrastructure services, while improvements in
the procurement process could improve expenditure allocation.
Liabilities and Liquidity
Robustness: 'Weaker'
The national framework for
debt is evolving and thus borrowing limits are quite wide. There are no
restrictions on debt maturities, interest rates or currency exposure. Over 90%
of Kaduna's debt is served through deductions from the statutory allocation,
including loans with local banks for salary bailouts, while the remaining part
is made up of intergovernmental loans.
At end-2019, 70% of
Kaduna's NGN241.2 billion adjusted debt, when included pension and contractors
arrears, was in foreign currency and the figure is expected to increase towards
80% for a debt burden of over NGN350 billion by 2024, after the disbursement
under the USD350 million loan from the World Bank. The historical average cost
of debt is below 1% for multilateral foreign debt, while domestic debt carries
interest rates around 10%. Kaduna's debt amortisation profile is smooth with
long maturities and sustainable debt service well below 1x the operating
balance.
Liabilities and Liquidity
Flexibility: 'Weaker'
Fitch deems Kaduna's
liquidity as weak as the state has no committed liquidity lines and domestic
banks rated in the 'B' category tend to extend credit lines either with short
maturities or with FGN backup through direct deductions from FAAC for longer
maturities. Fitch prudentially considers cash as restricted for payables.
Emergency liquidity may also come directly from the federal government, as was
the case in 2015-2016, with the Budget Support Facility helping states to
tackle pressures due to liquidity shortfalls, supporting payments of salaries
and pensions.
Debt sustainability: 'bb'
category
According to Fitch's rating
case of a prolonged stressed economy, Kaduna's debt payback ratio (net
debt-to-operating balance) - the primary metric of debt sustainability
assessment - could deteriorate to 23 years in the medium term, incorporating
the effects of an economic downturn, corresponding to a 'bb' assessment.
Secondary metrics - fiscal debt burden measured by net adjusted
debt-to-operating revenue - could move above 350% and is assessed at 'b', while
its actual debt-servicing coverage ratio above 1.5x is assessed at 'a'.
Kaduna is classified as type B LRG by Fitch, as it covers debt service with its operating balance. Kaduna's fast-growing 8.2 million young residents, growing unemployment rate of around 30%, and a traditionally strong primary sector contribute to weak socio-economic standards. The public sector is a key employer in the state, directly and through its planned investment programmes. A large informal economy hinders private sector development, which ultimately affects the IGR tax base. Although dominant agricultural and service sectors drive the economy, Kaduna's development plan is focused on the state's rich minerals resources by attracting foreign investors to key industrial projects.
Fitch assesses Kaduna's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) at 'b', reflecting a combination of a vulnerable risk profile assessment and a 'bb' assessment of debt sustainability. The SCP also factors in Kaduna's high debt burden compared with international peers, in particular South-American states and provinces. Fitch does not apply any asymmetric risk or ad-hoc support from the central government and assesses intergovernmental financing as neutral to Kaduna's ratings. The 'B' IDR reflects Kaduna's own payment capacity, while debt-service support from the central government through deductions from the statutory allocation is factored into the debt framework.
Qualitative Assumptions
and assessments and their respective change since the last review 27 March 2020
and weight in the rating decision:
Risk Profile: Vulnerable,
unchanged with low weight
Revenue Robustness:
Weaker, unchanged with low weight
Revenue Adjustability:
Weaker, unchanged with low weight
Expenditure
Sustainability: Weaker, unchanged with low weight
Expenditure Adjustability:
Midrange, unchanged with low weight
Liabilities and Liquidity
Robustness: Weaker, unchanged with low weight
Liabilities and Liquidity
Flexibility: Weaker, unchanged with low weight
Debt sustainability: 'bb'
category, unchanged with low weight
Support: n/a
Asymmetric Risk: n/a
Sovereign Cap: Yes,
lowered with high weight
Quantitative assumptions -
issuer specific
Fitch's rating case
scenario is a "through-the-cycle" scenario, which incorporates a
combination of revenue, cost and financial risk stresses. It is based on the
2015-2018 figures, 2019 preliminary figures and 2020-2024 projected ratios. The
key assumptions for the scenario include:
Quantitative assumptions -
sovereign related (note that no weights are included as none of these
assumptions was material to the rating action)
Quantitative assumptions -
sovereign related
Figures as per Fitch's
sovereign actual for 2018 and forecast for 2020, respectively:
Factors that could,
individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
Factors that could,
individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
Committee Minute Summary
Committee date: 8 April
2020
There was an appropriate
quorum at the committee and the members confirmed that they were free from
recusal. It was agreed that the data was sufficiently robust relative to its
materiality. During the committee no material issues were raised that were not in
the original committee package. The main rating factors under the relevant
criteria were discussed by the committee members. The rating decision as
discussed in this rating action commentary reflects the committee discussion.
Ratings of Public Finance
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three
notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario
(defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative
direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA'
to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.
Contractors' and pension
arrears reported under Other Fitch Classified debt
Capex figures adjusted to
mirror Fitch's estimated cash-like data
The principal sources of
information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
Unless otherwise disclosed
in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of 3 -
ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the
entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed
by the entity.
Kaduna has an ESG
Relevance Score of 4 for Energy Management due to problems with electricity and
dependency on oil-related transfers, which has a negative impact on the credit
profile, and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Kaduna has an ESG
Relevance Score of 4 for Human Rights and Political Freedoms due to the
presence of conflicts in the region, which has a negative impact on the credit
profile, and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Kaduna has an ESG
Relevance Score of 4 for Human Development, Health and Education as the
majority of the population lives below the poverty line, which has a negative
impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction
with other factors.
Kaduna has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Political Stability and Rights as political divisions leading to unpredictable policy shifts with low budget predictability, which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Related News - Rating Agencies on Kaduna
State
Related News - Rating Agencies on Lagos State
Related News - Rating Agencies on Nigeria
Related News - Rating Agencies on Banks
Related News - Rating Agencies on Selected
Companies and Notes