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Friday,
April 10, 2020 / 12:59 PM / By Fitch Ratings / Header Image Credit: Oyibos Online
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Lagos's
Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B' from
'B+'. The Outlooks are Negative.
Under EU credit rating agency (CRA) regulation, the publication of
International Public Finance reviews is subject to restrictions and must take
place according to a published schedule, except where it is necessary for CRAs
to deviate from this in order to comply with their legal obligations. Fitch
interprets this provision as allowing us to publish a rating review in
situations where there is a material change in the creditworthiness of the
issuer that we believe makes it inappropriate for us to wait until the next
scheduled review date to update the rating or Outlook/Watch status.
Following the recent downgrade of Nigeria's IDRs (see Fitch
Downgrades Nigeria to 'B'; Outlook Negative dated 6 April 2020) we have
downgraded Lagos's IDRs to reflect the Sovereign cap, while its Outlooks move
in tandem with the sovereign's.
Related
Link: Fitch Downgrades Nigeria to 'B'; Outlook
Negative
The ratings also reflect the state's weak risk profile by international
standards against Fitch's expectations of sustainable debt driven by internally
generated revenue (IGR), which underpins Lagos's capacity to serve its
financial obligations, as evidenced by its Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) of
'bb+'.
While Nigerian local and regional governments' (LRG) most recently
available issuer data may not have indicated performance impairment, material
changes in revenue and cost profiles are occurring across the sector and likely
to worsen in the coming weeks and months as economic activity suffers and
government restrictions are maintained or broadened. Fitch's ratings are
forward-looking in nature, and we will monitor developments in the sector for
their severity and duration, and incorporate revised base- and rating-case
qualitative and quantitative inputs based on performance expectations and
assessment of key risks.
The next scheduled review date for Lagos is 18 September 2020.
HIGH
Sovereign Cap
As per Fitch's rating criteria, Lagos's IDRs are capped by the
sovereign's and its Outlooks reflect those on the sovereign. Any rating action
on the sovereign's ratings will lead to similar action on Lagos's ratings,
provided that Lagos's budgetary performance and debt metrics remain in line
with Fitch's expectations.
LOW
Risk Profile: Weaker
Fitch has assessed Lagos's risk profile, at Weaker, which combines three
factors at Midrange (revenue robustness, expenditure sustainability and
adjustability) and three factors at Weaker (revenue adjustability, liabilities
and liquidity robustness and flexibility).
Revenue Robustness: Midrange
Lagos's estimated NGN580 billion operating revenue at end-2019 rests on
a diversified tax base driven by IGR(70%), underpinning the state's relative
autonomy from oil-related transfers by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN),
which represent 10%-15% of operating revenue. In our rating case of a stressed
economy, we forecast a nominal average 8% increase in operating revenue in
2020-2024, taking into account the VAT rate increase to 7.5% from 5.0%
effective since February 2020 against flat IGR.
Revenue Adjustability: Weaker
Fitch believes that Lagos's fiscal flexibility relies on the wide but
not fully exploited tax base of PAYE (about 75% of IGR), on which it has no
tax-setting power, as well as other potential revenue sources such as land use
charges. Rigid revenue sources represent collectively more than 85% of Lagos's
revenue, driving the Weaker assessment of this factor. Lagos is a net
contributor to Nigeria's equalisation system enacted through the Federal
Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).
In Fitch's view, the maximum peak-to-trough revenue fall of -5.5% (NGN22
billion) in 2015 over the last 10 years could be theoretically offset by at
least 50% with modest additional revenue. However, if another recession should
strike Nigeria as a consequence of the sharp fall in oil prices and prolonged
lockdown measures to face the pandemic, Fitch believes that Lagos will absorb
the revenue shock by reducing its operating margin to about 35% from current
50%.
Expenditure Sustainability: Midrange
In its rating scenario, Fitch expects operating costs to increase by 10%
or less than the country's double-digit inflation, but above revenue growth,
driven by increased costs to cope with the pandemic and support the weakest
layer of its 20 million population, while coping with the 60% minimum wage
increase decided back in 2019. Lagos has a diversified set of responsibilities,
which include education (20%) and healthcare (15%), which could come under
pressure should the pandemic spread in the state.
Expenditure Adjustability: Midrange
There are no mandatory balanced budget rules defined by the central
government for states, which are required to keep their deficits at 3% of
national GDP. Fitch expects Lagos to cover debt service requirements out of its
operating balance by about 2x. Capex makes up 50% of Lagos's expenditure before
debt service, keeping the share of inflexible costs below 70%.
Under Fitch's revised rating scenario, which incorporates stresses due
to the oil-price shock and the lockdown, Lagos is expected to retain its
adjustability potential even in a scenario of capex declining to around 35% of
expenditure before debt service, as the high level of capex is necessary to
maintain the local attractiveness amid demographic pressures calling for more
services on infrastructure, health and education.
Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: Weaker
The national framework for debt is evolving and thus borrowing limits
are quite wide. There are no restrictions concerning debt maturities, interest
rates or currency exposure. Lagos applies a prudential rule of debt service not
exceeding 30% of operating revenues and aims at reducing its currency exposure
at 55% of its NGN850 billion outstanding debt at end-2019. Average cost of debt
is around 1% for external loans and above 10% on domestic loans. To ensure
timely debt service, its internal debt is assisted by a state-level irrevocable
standing payment order while external debt is served by FGN through deductions
from FAAC.
Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: Weaker
Lagos has consolidated access to financial markets with repeated bond
issuances, while domestic counterparties can provide liquidity lines and
short-term credit. Counterparty risk on credit lines is in the 'B' category,
triggering a Weaker assessment for this factor. Lagos cashes in a sinking fund
to support its debt service on bonds and Fitch prudently considers its year-end
cash as earmarked to offset payables.
Debt Sustainability: 'aa' category
In Fitch's rating scenario of a stressed economy, Lagos's net adjusted
debt is expected to increase above NGN1 trillion in the medium term, reaching
NGN1.2 trillion by 2024. Coupled with an operating balance around NGN300
billion, this leads to a payback ratio of around four years. Fitch incorporates
Lagos's weak fiscal debt burden of around 140%, which is high compared with the
peer group, and debt service coverage at around 2x. Collectively, all these
factors lead to a debt sustainability assessed in the 'aa' category.
Lagos is classified as a type B LRG by Fitch, as it covers debt service
with its operating balance. Lagos is Nigeria's economic powerhouse with per
capita GDP above USD4.000, or double the national average, but is weak by
international standards. Fuelled by public and private investment and a
population over 20 million, Lagos's diverse economy is supportive of the wide
tax base that generates IGR.
Lagos's
SCP is assessed at 'bb+', reflecting a combination of a weak risk profile, or
debt tolerance, and its debt sustainability in the 'aa' category. The
notch-specific rating positioning is assessed at the higher end of the rating
category to reflect the payback ratio below five. Fitch does not apply any
asymmetric risk or extraordinary support from the central government. The IDR
is capped at the sovereign level. The 'B' short-term rating is derived from
Lagos's Long-Term IDR.
Qualitative
Assumptions and assessments and their respective change since the last review
held on 27-Mar-2020 and weight in the rating decision:
Risk Profile: Weaker, unchanged with low weight
Revenue Robustness: Midrange, unchanged with low weight
Revenue Adjustability: Weaker, unchanged with low weight
Expenditure Sustainability: Midrange, unchanged with low weight
Expenditure Adjustability: Midrange, unchanged with low weight
Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: Weaker, unchanged with low weight
Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: Weaker, unchanged with low weight
Debt sustainability: 'aa' category, unchanged with low weight
Support: n/a
Asymmetric Risk: n/a
Sovereign Cap: Yes, lowered with high weight
Quantitative assumptions - issuer specific
Fitch's rating case scenario is a "through-the-cycle"
scenario, which incorporates a combination of revenue, cost and financial risk
stresses. It is based on the 2014-2018 figures, 2019 estimated data 2020-2024
projected ratios. The key assumptions for the scenario include:
Quantitative assumptions - sovereign related
Figures as per Fitch's sovereign actual for 2018 and forecast for 2020,
respectively:
Factors
that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating
action/downgrade:
A downgrade of the sovereign's ratings would lead to corresponding
action on Lagos's IDR.
A sustained deterioration of the payback ratio above five years in
Fitch's rating case scenario, or a reassessment of the key risk factors or risk
profile due to unfavourable changes in the economy beyond Fitch's expectations,
could also trigger a downgrade.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:
Any positive rating action on Nigeria will be reflected on Lagos's
ratings, provided that Lagos maintains its strong debt sustainability metrics.
Committee Minute Summary
Committee date: 8 April 2020
There was an appropriate quorum at the committee and the members
confirmed that they were free from recusal. It was agreed that the data was
sufficiently robust relative to its materiality. During the committee no
material issues were raised that were not in the original committee package.
The main rating factors under the relevant criteria were discussed by the
committee members. The rating decision as discussed in this rating action
commentary reflects the committee discussion.
Ratings
of Public Finance issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as
the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of
three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating
downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three years. The
complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating
categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings are based on historical performance.
The principal sources of information used
in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
ESG issues are credit neutral or have only
a minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the
way in which they are being managed by the entity(ies).
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Companies and Notes
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