Reviews & Outlooks | |
Reviews & Outlooks | |
801 VIEWS | |
![]() |
Monday, October 05, 2020 / 06:28
PM / by Fitch Ratings / Header Image Credit: World Finance
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Guaranty
Trust Bank (GTB) Plc's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' and
removed it from Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The Outlook is Stable.
The removal of GTB's
Long-Term IDRs, Viability Rating (VR) and National Ratings from RWN reflects
Fitch's view of receding near-term risks to the bank's credit fundamentals from
the economic fallout arising from the oil price crash and coronavirus pandemic.
In our opinion, the impact of the economic downturn on GTB's credit profile is tolerable at the current rating and it will take several quarters before the full extent of the crisis on corporates and households is seen in its financial metrics. Since the previous rating action in March, regulatory forbearance on asset classification and banks' own debt relief measures have significantly eased sector asset quality pressures. Nevertheless, debt relief measures are temporary and with the eventual easing of fiscal and monetary support from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), there remains a material risk that bank asset quality could deteriorate more quickly, unless economic recovery gathers pace.
The Stable Outlook on GTB's Long-Term IDR reflects our
view that the bank's rating has sufficient headroom at this level to absorb
moderate shocks from sustained downside risks to the operating environment, the
heightened level of risk in doing banking business and resulting risks to its
financial performance over the next 12-18 months.
Key Rating Drivers
IDRS and VR
GTB's IDRs are driven by its intrinsic
creditworthiness, as defined by its 'b' VR. GTB's VR considers the bank's
exposure to Nigeria's volatile operating environment, but also continued solid
profitability and strong capital buffers, which provide adequate capacity to
absorb credit losses from the downturn. Asset-quality erosion has been limited
to date, while our assessment also considers the bank's significant non-loan
assets, dominated by cash items and Nigeria's government debt. Nigeria's
sovereign rating is 'B' with a Stable Outlook.
Net loans were only 36% of total assets, with GTB
holding substantial other assets in the form of restricted deposits (mainly
cash reserve requirements held at the CBN) and liquid government securities and
cash and balances. GTB's impaired (Stage 3 under IFRS 9) to gross loan ratio
rose slightly to 6.8% at end-1H20 (2019: 6.5%), mainly due to stress on oil
sector and retail borrowers. Total loan loss allowances to impaired loans ratio
was moderate at 64% in view of collateral coverage and recovery expectations.
Stage 2 loans contributed a further 16%, which are highly concentrated by
borrower. The bank is actively restructuring and resolving the largest of these
loans, reducing the risk of migration into Stage 3.
GTB is not immune to the downturn in the Nigerian
economy and its impaired loan ratio will rise moderately into 2021 as its
customers are affected by the fallout of the pandemic as well as hard currency
shortages, currency devaluation and rising inflation. At end-1H20, the bank had
restructured around 5% of its loan book due to debt relief measures, which is
lower than peers, reflecting a prime corporate book.
Similar to peers, credit concentration is a key risk
to asset quality. Loans to the oil and gas sector are above average at 39% of gross
loans and 0.96x Fitch Core Capital (FCC). According to GTB, a large proportion
of its upstream oil sector exposures are hedged, which mitigates risk to some
extent. However, a longer period of low oil prices and production will
inevitably lead to more stress in this book, in our view.
GTB is highly profitable and has a track record of
outperforming peers through the cycle. The operating profit/risk weighted
assets (RWA) ratio was a healthy 7.8% at end-1H20. GTB's revenue generating
capacity and operating efficiency are relative strengths. However, like peers,
GTB will face growing earnings pressure in the next few quarters from slower
activity, recent rate cuts (although this will also be offset by lower funding
costs) and regulatory limits on fees. High trading and revaluation gains will
to some extent offset these pressures. Loan impairment charges, which consumed
only 3% of pre-impairment operating profit in 1H20, are likely to rise further
given the uncertain macro-economic outlook.
GTB's solid capitalisation is a rating strength, with
metrics consistently the highest among the peer group and with good buffers
over regulatory minimums (total capital ratio of 25.9% at end-1H20). The bank's
FCC ratio, albeit still strong, fell to 24.6% in 1H20 (2019: 26.3%) due to RWA
inflation following the naira devaluation. GTB's strong internal capital
generation will ensure capitalisation remains healthy.
GTB's funding mix continues to benefit from a large
base of low-cost current and savings accounts, which formed 87% of total
deposits at end-1H20. We expect funding costs to continue to fall as the bank
continues to use its innovative digital outreach to gather more deposits and
gain market share. Naira liquidity is ample supported by large cash placements
and predominantly government securities. Foreign currency liquidity is adequate
despite tight market conditions.
Support Rating and
Support Rating Floor
Sovereign support to banks cannot be relied on given
Nigeria's weak ability to provide support, particularly in foreign currency.
The Support Rating Floor of all Nigerian banks is 'No Floor' and all Support
Ratings are '5'. This reflects our view that senior creditors cannot rely on
receiving full and timely extraordinary support from the Nigerian sovereign if
any of the banks become non-viable.
National Ratings
GTB's National Ratings reflect its creditworthiness
relative to other issuers in Nigeria and are driven by its standalone strength.
GTB is rated higher than most Nigerian banking peers at 'AA(nga)' due to its
franchise strength, performance track record and solid capitalisation.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead
to positive rating action/upgrade:
Upside to the ratings is unlikely at present but could
come from a material improvement in operating conditions and a sovereign
upgrade.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead
to negative rating action/downgrade:
Negative rating action on the sovereign or if our
assessment of the operating environment is revised downward. The latter could
be driven by persistent post-lockdown disruption, weak oil price and extended
global economic turmoil, giving rise to a more severe economic and financial
market fallout than currently expected.
GTB's impaired loans ratio increases significantly to
above 10%, resulting in considerable bottom-line losses and erosion of capital
buffers, with the FCC ratio remaining below 15% for a sustained period.
A severe tightening in the bank's foreign currency
liquidity.
Best/Worst Case Rating
Scenario
International scale credit ratings of Financial
Institutions and Covered Bond issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario
(defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case
rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three
years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for
all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario
credit ratings are based on historical performance.
Related News - Rating Agencies on Nigeria
Related News - Rating Agencies on Banks
Related News - Rating Agencies on Selected
Companies and Notes
Related News - Rating Agencies on Kaduna
State
Related News - Rating Agencies on Lagos State