February 05, 2018 /05:15 PM / ARM Research
2018 is shaping up to be a year defined by improved economic fundamentals but continued uncertainty. While consensus has developed around a lower interest rate environment, timing and direction of fiscal and monetary policy are anything but certain, and the combined effect of both is unpredictable.
It seems that wherever investors look, there are reasons to be cautious of the political climate and its impact on policies. More so, while a confluence of subdued inflation and stable currency may guide to a cut in the MPR, the delayed confirmation of MPC members and the incoming expiration of the tenure of the CBN governor creates another layer of uncertainty.
For one thing, the political landscape remains treacherous. Downside risks from energy and electricity prices, disruption in oil production, elevated domestic issuances and excessive government spending all have the potential to send markets into a tailspin this year.
Overall, one thread runs through our views of the economy for 2018: a possible game of two halves wherein the first half looks brighter than the latter.
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Related News From ARM’s H1 2018 Nigeria Strategy Report
NSR H1 2018 (11) – Fixed Income: The unstoppable force of liquidity
NSR H1 2018 (10) – Nigerian Fiscal: Sharper Picture but still blurry
NSR H1 2018 (9) – Inflation has peaked, but downside risks remain
NSR H1 2018 (8) – Currency: NGN Cautiously Constructive for 2018
NSR H1 2018 (7) – Balance of Payment Visibly losing size but gaining weight
NSR H1 2018 (6) – GDP Juggling optimism on a tightrope
NSR H1 2018 (5) - Crude Oil Sunny with a chance of Rain
NSR H1 2018 (4)- Commodity prices crater from supply glut
NSR H1 2018 (3)- Constructive Flows to EMs But Headwind Prospers
NSR H1 2018 - Africa Economy Back From The Brink
NSR H1 2018 (1) - Growth: Riding on the Swing of Improved Fundamentals
1. Fitch Affirms Guaranty Trust Bank at ''B ''; Outlook Negative
2. Fitch Affirms Zenith Bank at ''B ''; Outlook Negative
3. FSDH Research Forecasts a GDP Growth Rate of 3.16% in 2018 - Implications
4. Nigeria in 2018: Looking Beneath the Surface
5. Afrinvest Presents 2018 Economic Outlook: The Virtuous Cycle… Again!
6. 2018 Outlook: Elections Approaching; Not a Lost Year
7. Growing Beyond Numbers: Will Nigeria’s Growth Be Inclusive in 2018 and beyond?
8. NESG 2018 Nigerian economic outlook:Salami harps on inclusive growth
9. Outlook 2018 - On Thin Ice; Charting a Course to Solid Grounds
10. FY 2018 Outlook - A Rising Tide
11. Nigeria Outlook 2018 - The Silver Lining?
12. 2017 At a Glance and What to Expect in 2018
13. Nigeria’s Economic Indicators in 2017
14. Nigeria 2018 Outlook: Acta Non Verba
15. Nigeria needs robust reserve buffers to manage cyclical shocks - Ayo Teriba
16. Towards The Finishing Line, Still Time To Deliver
17. Access Bank GMD speaks on Nigerian Banking Sector in 2017
18. One-day Quarterly Conference on ‘Nigeria’s Economic Outlook’, to hold on 14 December 2017
19. Outlook Stable for Financial Infrastructure Companies in 2018
20. Nigeria-Based United Bank for Africa Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable
21. Federal Republic of Nigeria''s Proposed Eurobonds Assigned ''B'' Issue Ratings
22. Fitch Rates Nigeria's Upcoming USD Notes ''B (EXP)''
Related News from ARM’s Q4 2017 Nigeria Strategy Report
2. NSR Q4 2017 (9) Fixed Income: Yields Trend Lower As Apex Bank Changed Front
3. NSR Q4 2017 (8) - Is MPC at a turning point?
4. NSR Q4 2017 (7) - Inflation: Still an Eye into CBN’s Monetary Policy Mind
5. NSR Q4 2017 (6) Naira Resilience: New Normal or Fleeting Reality?
6. NSR Q4 2017 (5) - Balance of Payment to Survive Murky Waters
7. NSR Q4 2017 (4) - Nigeria’s Net Creditor Status Diminishes Again
8. NSR Q4 2017 (3) - Fiscal: Federal Revenue Growth Shows Signs of Life
9. NSR Q4 2017 (2) - GDP: Uphill with the Handbrake On
10. NSR Q4 2017 - Crude Oil: Will Crude Oil ‘Roller Coaster’ Linger?
Related News from ARM’s H2 2017 Nigeria Strategy Report
2. NSR H2 2017 (10) - CBN’s Volte-Face Narrows FX Markets Premium
3. NSR H2 2017 (9) - Trade Balance to Survive Muddy Waters
4. NSR H2 2017 (8) - Nigerian GDP: Recovery Signal Speaks
5. NSR H2 2017 (7) - Nigerian Fiscal: One Step Closer, Several More To Go
6. NSR H2 2017 (6) - REFORMS: Getting Down to Brass Tacks
7. NSR H2 2017 (5) - New Regulations set sights on increasing gains for Pension Assets
8. NSR H2 2017 (4) - Nigeria's Socio-Political Milieu: Just Before That Sigh of Relief
9. NSR H2 2017 (3) - Supply Glut Underpins Broadly Bearish Trends Across Soft Commodities