Thursday,
November 09, 2017 / 10:48AM /FBNQuest Research
Moody’s
Investor Service has downgraded its sovereign rating for Nigeria from B1 to B2,
and so falls into line with S&P. Fitch has the sovereign one notch higher
at B+ (the equivalent of B1), albeit with a negative rating.
The
downgrade is justified by Moody’s by the limited progress made the authorities
in tackling the Achilles heel of the economy, namely its dependence on oil
revenues. The progress has been limited although we would add that it has been
patchy or worse over the past four decades.
Moody’s also highlights the dire position of revenue collection, noting
that the budget deficit amounts to roughly half total general government
revenue (not FGN revenue), which compares poorly with the median of its B-rated
sovereigns.
It also sees the alarm bells ringing on debt service, which it puts at
38% of revenues in H1 2017. This ratio appears to be for FGN revenues, for
which the IMF has a rather higher figure.
On capital expenditure, Moody’s queries whether in 2017 the FGN will be
able to better the N1.2trn it reported for 2016. This reflects the struggle
over revenue collection but, more substantially, its view that the budget cycle
for 2017 will be six months because the new budget will be passed in January.
We fear that this view understates the long-established tensions between the
executive and the legislature.
The new rating has a stable outlook due to the improvement in the oil
price, the relative stability in the Niger Delta, the return of the current
account to surplus, the accumulation of official reserves and the net inflow of
capital under the CBN’s multiple currency practices.
A ratings agency has to perform a delicate balancing act. In this case,
Moody’s has termed the likelihood of a fresh external shock as low but
proceeded with the downgrade nonetheless in view of the limited progress in
overcoming the structural weaknesses of the economy.
Investors will form their own view on the balancing act when the FGN
returns shortly to the Eurobond market. We suspect that the downgrade will not
have a great impact in a market where other sovereigns have been able to sell
rather weaker credit stories.
The agency’s forecasts for 2017 differ somewhat from our own: GDP growth
of 1.7% (we have 2.0%); end-year inflation of 14.4% y/y (16.2%); and a
current-account surplus equivalent to 1.8% of GDP (0.3%).
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