Global House Prices Will Rise, But Ideal Conditions to End

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Tuesday, January 23, 2018 /9:50AM /Fitch Ratings


National house prices are forecast to rise this year in 19 of 22 markets highlighted by Fitch Ratings in a new report, but growth is expected to slow in most markets and risks are growing as the prospect of gradually rising mortgage rates comes into view this year. 

"Arrears are at very low levels in most markets. They will only move in one direction as mortgage rates rise slowly due to higher policy rates and more expensive bank funding from the gradual unwinding of quantitative easing. Floating-rate loans and borrowers refinancing to new rates will be first affected," said Suzanne Albers, Senior Director, Structured Finance, Fitch Ratings. 

Long-term fixed-rate loans are less exposed to increasing rates, but fewer re-financings mean lower lending volumes, so lenders may face pressure to relax their origination standards, subject to regulatory limits. 

Norway, Greece and the UK are the only countries not expected to see price rises this year, but Fitch notes that national trends can mask large performance variations within countries with some regions continuing to see unsustainable price rises while others stagnate or even fall. 

"We expect home prices to stabilise in Sydney and Melbourne and show modest declines in Oslo, Toronto and London. However, if corrections are only limited after several years of very high growth, the risk of large price declines in future downturns remains," added Ms. Albers. 

Despite these challenges, six of the 22 housing markets covered by the report have seen upward revisions to their outlooks over the past 12 months compared with three being revised down, leaving just three, the UK, Canada and Norway, in Stable/Negative territory. 

Fitch has a positive or stable/positive market outlook for seven of the nine eurozone countries in this report due to expectations for strong economic growth and continued quantitative easing (QE) in 2018. As the unwinding of QE and normalisation of interest rates is only expected in the medium-term, so the highlighted challenges are likely to materialise later than in other regions. 

Fitch believes that in 2018 a combination of factors will be needed to constrain house price rises that have gone beyond market fundamentals and are primarily due to buyers' expectations for further growth. Overheated markets slowed in 2017 when a combination of factors pressured prices, including lending limitations along with more local factors such as heightened supply and falling immigration in Oslo, multi-layered regulatory controls on home purchases and mortgage lending in China and for London, Brexit uncertainty plus the impact of buy-to-let (BTL) changes including lower tax deductibility of rental income. 

Non-bank lenders (NBL) in the US, which tend to have more flexible credit standards, are six of the top 10 lenders by volume. In the UK, NBL have focussed on BTL lending where they have not yet been bound by stricter Prudential Regulation Authority guidelines that apply to deposit-taking institutions. NBL (especially government agencies) could also increase competition in Mexico as they move from index-linked lending to peso loans, the traditional market for banks. 

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