No Safe Levels Of Alcohol According To New Lancet Study, Institute of Economic Affairs Reacts


Sunday, August 26, 2018   10.18AM  / News with reports from Lancet and IEA


On Friday, the general medical journal Lancet published an article, Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, which called for a global movement of further ‘alcohol control’.


The Report Summary



Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.



Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.



Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5–3·0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6·8% (5·8–8·0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15–49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3·8% (95% UI 3·2–4·3) of female deaths and 12·2% (10·8–13·6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15–49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2·3% (95% UI 2·0–2·6) and male attributable DALYs were 8·9% (7·8–9·9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1·4% [95% UI 1·0–1·7] of total deaths), road injuries (1·2% [0·7–1·9]), and self-harm (1·1% [0·6–1·5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27·1% (95% UI 21·2–33·3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18·9% (15·3–22·6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0·0–0·8) standard drinks per week.



Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.



Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.



Linked Article

1.       No level of alcohol consumption improves health

2.      Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories ... - The Lancet Aug 24, 2018



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Reaction From IEA

IEA’s Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon responded to this - branding it ‘paternalistic’ and at odds with scientific evidence.

Chris noted that it is patently untrue to claim there are no health benefits from moderate alcohol consumption and the suggestion that there is ‘no safe level of alcohol’ is scaremongering.


“Science is being sacrificed in the name of a draconian zero-tolerance approach”, he argued, for which consumers will pay a heavy price.

There should no longer be any doubt that the aim of ‘public health’ zealots is to regulate alcohol like cigarettes and treat drinkers like smokers, he added.

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You can read his report Alcohol and the Public Purse: Do drinkers pay their way? for free here Institute of Economic Affairs.


And you can also download Chris’s comprehensive critique of paternalism, Killjoys. In this IEA book, he scrutinises the health paternalism adopted by governments around the world.


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