I try to
give President Buhari several opportunities to convince or at least inspire
cooperation from myself and other Nigerians I know. I believe the man is beyond
redemption and the next 4 years will be like the last 4, if not worse (for most
Nigerians that is). Those profiting from the inefficiencies and general
low-level thinking will continue to profit. In fact, they will max out this
time. The response to the Almajirai issue during his debates still reverberate,
for it is unforgivable and unconscionable. For a president to believe
that 13.2million children out of school is not his problem but that of local
governments is appalling and more than frightening. But there is more where
that came from. God help us.
Recently,
the president spoke ex-tempore at a dinner organized to mark his victory. He
first deflated those who think he will populate his cabinet with women and
youths, by asking them not to rejoice yet because he has to take care of his
constituency (old people). Not bad. No country is run by only young people even
though the last four years has been without the necessary energy of the youths.
Then the president proceeded to lash the PDP for wasting and embezzling
Nigeria’s commonwealth for 16 years. According to the president, the PDP supervised
the economy in a period of so much wealth – beyond what his administration
could ever contemplate. President Buhari averred with all certainty that crude
oil sold at an average of $100 between 1999 and 2014, dropping off when he
became president. He then asked his audience to do the math, by multiplying
$100 by 2.1million barrels per day, for 16 years.
Though
nobody gave an answer as they were all busy clapping and hailing inside the
resplendent hall in Aso Villa, that figure will be $76.65bn per year, or
N23.378Trillion per year. In 16 years, according to Buhari’s calculations the
PDP made $1.226Trillion from Crude Oil, and equivalent of N374Trillion in
today’s Naira. See table below:.
Source:
Global Analytics
You see,
these assertions by President Buhari would have easily been dismissed but for
the fact that it is an attempt to exploit Nigerians emotionally. I am not a PDP
member or sympathizer but I believe we should be careful where we lead our
people to. Nigeria’s politics has become more and more toxic to the extent that
presidents now poison the minds of the people. The statement by Buhari also
reveals a fixed mindset, which can only lead us to hell in the next few years.
The man is fixated on crude oil, but in spite of the years he spent there and
his love for that sector, he reveals the utmost level of unpardonable
ignorance. Is it just to score a point? I will explain shortly. Also, he
reveals a terrible victim mentality. The president probably believes the entire
world conspires against him. The reality is much different as crude oil price
under his regime is not much different from under the PDP.
Continuing
with the speech, the president also spoke about his war against corruption and
how he was reckless (his words) in his first coming in 1983 when he required
everyone to prove themselves innocent after he had slammed them in jail for
being guilty. He further stated that only two people were found to be honest in
the Shehu Shagari’s regime; Adamu Ciroma (then CBN Governor) and Alhaji
Bilyaminu Usman (later Emir of Dass in Bauchi State, who he said was a Minister
of State). When I searched online for Bilyaminu Usman, the results showed
that this rhetoric by Buhari has been going on for quite a while, and is widely
reported in newspapers written in Hausa language. His audience at the recent
dinner clapped away, and for some of them, the importance of that statement was
lost. How can there be only two honest people in a regime? Who decided? What is
the makeup of the committee that did the job? How come both are from northern
Nigeria – specifically North East? What lesson does that teach our children?
Whither the fate of southern Nigerians? Are we to go around with bowed heads
because we are from a dishonest race or ethnicity where not even one person
could be found to be honest; a modern day Sodom and Gomorrah? Is this what
informs ‘oga’s’ appointments?
I put that
all down to the fact that old people are meant to be naturally prejudiced. They
prejudge you based on where you are from and their opinions about everything
has been formed historically. I forgive the president for believing that the
rest of us are not honest. What I will not forgive is the wrong figures he
bandied on the oil and gas sector. He displayed a shocking level of illiteracy
about the sector, for someone who boasts of having been a minister for
petroleum. Like Senator Patrick Moynihan said “Everyone is entitled to his own
opinion… but not to his own facts”.
Back to
the crude oil statement. The untruths that Buhari committed in one statement
are:
1. Average price of crude oil for 16 years (1999 – 2014) was $100. The correct figure is $61.92. See tables below (courtesy macrotrends.net)
2. According to the president, it seems crude oil exploration does not come at a cost, hence all the proceeds amount to profit for Nigeria. In truth, according to NEITI, up to 65% of the proceeds of crude oil sales accrue to international oil companies, since we have no input in the process. See https://allafrica.com/stories/201806250065.html
The second error is
typical among many Nigerians as they argue away in beer parlours and I have
tried to always set us straight. The error is there to bite every government.
Just as Buhari is pointing to PDP and instructing Nigerians that every proceed
of crude oil was squandered by his opponents, so also are Nigerians calculating
what he is ‘collecting’ from crude oil today. The point is, these figures are
false. Upon research however, the president seems to be correct that Nigeria
exported an average of 2.1million barrels per day of crude between 1999 and
2014. Invariably, successive governments in Nigeria never tell us the
whole truth about crude oil production – including the sitting government – but
we can obtain information back end from international sources.
Below are the tables showing the true average price of crude oil, between 1999 and 2014, under the rulership of the PDP, then between 2015 and 2019 under Buhari. I threw in a historical perspective (between 1987 and 1998), to expand the debate and see how things went under the military (and that there’s no excuse for underperformance today):
PDP might
have been ‘tagged’ all sorts of names, but we cannot be blinded to facts. Also
no matter what happen, we cannot and should never allow our past define our
future.
We should
also limit the extent we deploy propaganda and deliberate lies and obfuscation
because these things always leave dregs of discord which hold the nation down
permanently in disunity, bitterness, prejudice and injustice. It will be a
miracle if Nigeria makes progress in the next four (4) years based on the
current trajectory and rallying cry. May God help us – if we decide to help
ourselves.
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Tope Kolade Fasua is a Nigerian businessman, economist and writer. He is
the founder and CEO of Global Analytics Consulting Limited, an international
consulting firm with its headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria. He was the 2019
presidential candidate of the Abundant Nigeria Renewal Party (ANRP), which he
founded. He can be contacted via e-mail at ceo@global-analytics.co.uk
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