Tuesday, September 22, 2020 / 08:47AM /
OpEd By Reuben Abati / Header Image Credit: Politics360 / Ecographics
The pundits who had
predicted the outcome and the nature of the Gubernatorial election in Edo State
got it all wrong. The Edo 2020 election may well prove to be a turning point in
the management of elections in Nigeria, and if not, there are certainly lessons
to be learnt from it. It was in every sense a rude awakening for both the
actors in the drama and the community of observers who witnessed and monitored
the election. Pundits predicted that the election would end up as war, a do -or
die affair and that there would be blood-letting in all the state's three
Senatorial Districts. That didn't happen. An official of the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) was shot in Etsako Central LGA, another
person was macheted and given a cut on the face. In Orhionmwon LGA, a person
was killed. In Egor, Ovia South West, Ikpoba-Okha, Oredo LGAs there were
reports of skirmishes involving vote buying, and physical assault, but on the
whole, the election went on peacefully. There were fears that voters would stay
away from the polling stations, out of fear and anxiety, for indeed, before
election day, September 19, campaign rhetoric was febrile, hate speech
dominated political talk. The people had every reason to be afraid.
Still about 25.2% of
registered voters ventured out to exercise their right of franchise. Out of a
total of 2.210,534 million registered voters, about 483, 000 did not pick up
their voters' cards, leaving behind a total of 1.7 million accredited voters.
Out of these, barely 537,407 voters took part in the exercise, just enough to
cover the event with a toga of legitimacy. There were fears about the readiness
of INEC for the election. It was an off cycle election. It was a COVID-19
season election. INEC promised that it was ready and that it would do a good
job. The Commission didn't do too badly after all. Unlike what obtained in the
past, ad hoc staff got their allowances. Concerns about the late arrival of
election materials and the failure of card readers in some local governments
were promptly addressed. INEC had insisted that voters should observe COVID-19
protocols. Many voters wore face masks, quite alright, but INEC was totally
incapable of enforcing physical and social distancing. That was a major minus.
Nobody should be surprised if there is a sudden spike in COVID 19 cases in Edo
state after this election.
In past elections,
across Nigeria, there were complaints about security agencies and their
performance. We have witnessed spectacles of policemen, soldiers, and other
security agents constituting themselves into a nuisance on election day and
after, acting, as it were, on orders from above, in an absolutely partisan
manner. In Edo State on September 19, the various security agencies tried their
best to be neutral. Nobody reported the usual story of uniformed men snatching
ballot boxes and helping the ruling party to thumbprint ballot papers. There
were no disturbing reports of police brutality or accidental discharge by
soldiers. In Kogi, in November 2019, the Nigeria Police deployed helicopters to
intimidate the people. A prominent female politician was set ablaze, and till
date the case rests in a cold file that may never be opened. On September 19 in
Edo State, Nigerians witnessed a most unusual election. Political actors
respected the restriction of movement order. For an election that was presaged
by serious tension and anxiety, that was quite an achievement.
As it turned out,
incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki who had crossed from the ruling party, the
All Progressives Congress (APC) to the opposition party, the People's
Democratic Party (PDP) to enable him seek a second term in office after he was
rejected by powerful forces in the APC, emerged victorious. He scored
307, 955 votes and won with a margin of 84, 336. His main challenger, Pastor
Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) scored 223, 619 votes.
There were 14 political parties in the September 19 election, but it was
basically a two-way horse race between the PDP and the APC. It was as if
all the other 12 political parties did not exist. Their votes taken together did
not quite amount to 10, 000. One of the gubernatorial candidates was said to
have been at home in Lagos on election day. She didn't even bother to show up
in Edo State. Democracy allows all sorts. Nonetheless, history was made.
Obaseki is the second Governor in Nigerian history to win election within the
space of four years, back to back on two different political platforms: the APC
in 2016 and the PDP in 2020. Before him, there was in this regard, Samuel
Ortom, Governor of Benue State, who became Governor as an APC candidate in
2015, and as a PDP candidate in 2019. Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the Edo 2020 key
challenger, will also be remembered as having lost Gubernatorial elections back
to back on two different platforms: PDP in 2016, and APC in 2020.
Governor Godwin Obaseki
has every reason to enjoy the taste of his victory. He was incumbent Governor
but he was the underdog in the 2020 election. He was abandoned by the APC, the
same party that presented him as flag-bearer in 2016. He was not allowed to
take part in the same party's primaries on the grounds that his academic
credentials are fake. The campaign against him was led by Comrade Adams
Oshiomhole, the same man he served as economic strategist and who in 2016 sold
him to the people of Edo State as the best thing since the invention of
fluoride toothpaste. Oshiomhole did a 360-degree volte face and abandoned
Obaseki. He turned 360 degrees and embraced Pastor Ize-Iyamu, the same man he
condemned in 2016. Obaseki had other enemies: the absentee 14 lawmakers of Edo
State - Oshiomhole's loyalists who wanted Obaseki out of office. There were
other local gladiators, including all the major 2016 Godfathers who now chose
to turn against him. Captain Hosa Okunbor, a prominent businessman and a major
stakeholder in Edo State who had supported Obaseki in 2016, an otherwise
self-effacing Captain Okunbor walked out of the closet and threatened to spend
his "last kobo" to remove Obaseki and make Ize-Iyamu Governor.
In the larger community,
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, national leader of the APC sponsored a video on
television in which he advised the people of Edo State to reject Obaseki.
Asiwaju Tinubu is a powerful political figure and Godfather. In Edo state, he
teamed up with Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and others to throw Obaseki into the
dustbin of history. His loyalists and godsons relocated to Edo State to join
the Ize-Iyamu campaign. The national anti-Obaseki team was led by the Governor
of Kano State, Ibrahim Ganduje. I still can't figure out how anyone would appoint
such a controversial man as head of a campaign team. Locally, 42 members of the
Obaseki administration resigned and abandoned him. Obaseki's enemies had the
Federal machinery behind them. They control the institutions and powers of the
state. But today, they all have dust in their eyes. Obaseki, in a noteworthy
re-affirmation of his name, won. God wins! What exactly happened?
Beyond the easy resort
to a spiritual explanation and how man proposes and God disposes, or the
omnipotence of the God factor, I think the result of the September 19, 2020
election in Edo State can be explained in five ways.
Number one: the intervention of the United States and the United Kingdom on the
eve of the election so to say, made a huge difference. The US issued a
statement to say that it will impose and had already imposed restrictions on
the visas of Nigerian politicians who committed electoral offences in the
November 2019 elections in Kogi and Bayelsa states and who have behaved in
similar fashion in the forthcoming Edo and Ondo Gubernatorial elections, on
September 19 and October 10 respectively. The UK Mission in Nigeria followed
suit by announcing similar measures with the addition that assets of Nigerian
electoral offenders in the UK will be seized, and such persons will be
prosecuted under international law. Thank you, US and UK. I am of the firm
belief that the political actors who would otherwise have misbehaved in the Edo
Gubernatorial election had to restrain themselves because of your intervention.
They don't want to be restricted. They don't want to lose their visas. They
need access to US and UK hospitals whenever they fall ill. They don't want to
be named and shamed. The Nigerian Government has complained about sovereignty
and the right to fair hearing. I don't know what that is all about. What we saw
on September 19 was that there was no useless "order from above". What we know
is that the President of Nigeria was the first person to congratulate the
re-elected Governor of Edo State.
Number two: the intervention of Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and
Captain Hosa Okunbor, and the desperate anti-Obaseki campaign launched by the
APC ended up working in Obaseki's favour Equity may not favour the
indolent but it often favours the underdog. The all-powerful APC machinery was
so targeted at Obaseki that unwittingly, the APC scored an own goal against
itself. Days before the election, the people of Edo state began to ask
questions. Adams Oshiomhole as Governor in the same state had campaigned
against the influence of Godfathers. He practically drove Chief Anthony Anenih
of blessed memory out of town. In 2020, Oshiomhole found himself in fits of
self-contradiction as he repudiated everything that he ever stood for. He spoke
from every corner of the mouth. He apologized to the people and the chiefs of
Edo that he made a mistake in 2016. Did they believe him? I don't think so. The
same man could show up in 2024 and tell fresh stories. Obaseki's victory is an
outright rejection of Oshiomhole's brand of politics. The people of Edo also
rejected Asiwaju Tinubu's busy-body intervention. This in fact inspired Edo
nationalism. The people proclaimed: "Edo no be Lagos". "Obaseki no be Ambode".
To this extent, the Edo Gubernatorial election was a protest against
Godfatherism and an affirmation of Edo nationalism. The Edo people rejected the
idea that anyone at all could dictate to them. They stood by whatever mistake
anyone thought they made in 2016. Very instructive.
Number three: Obaseki was helped further by the PDP machinery. The PDP cashed in on
the failure of the APC in Edo state and took maximum advantage of it. The party
which claims that Edo is a PDP state, simply grabbed a rejected Governor of the
APC and offered him everything that he wanted: a golden offer that accommodated
his Deputy. It was a deft political move. The PDP used Obaseki's defection from
the APC to strengthen its base in Edo State. It countered every negative move
by the APC by deploying its own aggressive campaigners, led by Governor Nyesom
Wike of Rivers state. Others on the ground included the PDP members from Edo
state who are members of the National Assembly and the local House of Assembly.
Together, they deployed high-grade propaganda to shape public perception. The
APC rejected Obaseki. He found a new family. Big loss.
Number four: Obaseki's victory can also be linked to the politics of 2023. Unknown
to many, some key figures in the APC worked for him. Edo became a battle ground
for the Presidential politics of 2023. Those who do not want Oshiomhole and
Bola Tinubu to determine the fortunes of the APC and Nigeria in 2023 moved in
and checkmated the process. Realpolitik.
The big take away in
all of these is the prompt acknowledgement of Obaseki's victory by President
Muhammadu Buhari and his congratulatory message. Pastor Ize-Iyamu and the Edo
branch of the APC have refused to congratulate Obaseki. They should take
their cue from the President's message who in this case, has done something
that is quite uncharacteristic. Ize-Iyamu and his supporters claim they want to
study the results. They are free to do so. But they should conduct themselves
after the fashion of gentlemen and sportsmen. In the past, the APC got
controversial rulings from the judiciary in election matters including the notorious
case of Imo State where the Supreme Court elected a Governor from the Bench
through dubious arithmetic. The judges should be careful. They need to read the
press statements by the US and the UK. They may be privileged but they
are also not above international law!.
President Muhammadu
Buahri has advised Obaseki to be magnanimous in victory. He should take that to
heart. Before the election, he had threatened to deal with Oshiomhole. He
doesn't need to deal with anyone. Oshiomhole banished the Godfathers that
disturbed him from Edo State. He doesn't need to be served a dose of his own
medicine. Even those who promised to spend their last kobo on the September 19
election should be accommodated. Obaseki got a second term by defeating those
who tried to play God in the affairs of Edo State. He himself must resist the
temptation to act like God. The people of Edo State have reposed their
confidence in him by giving him the opportunity of a second term in office. He
must not betray their trust. He has promised to Make Edo Great Again. There are
unresolved issues and uncompleted projects, and MOUs. He will be better off
focusing on that. No man must play God.
As for Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, let him be reminded that "except the Lord builds the House, they labour in vain that build it..." (Psalm 127: 1). Pick your phone, make that call and congratulate your brother, Godwin.
Previous Posts by Dr. Reuben Abati
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