Friday, November 20, 2015 09:05AM / FBNQuest
The new administration’s economic team is expected to meet this week with the three revenue collection agencies. As with the recent budget retreat in Abuja, we do not expect the release of any information.
The meeting could profitably focus on the FIRS, the largest agency which collected N2.26trn of total gross federally collectible non-oil revenue of N3.40trn last year.
It has met all its annual collection targets since 2000 other than 2006. This tells us that the targets are insufficiently tough.
In January-September 2015 it collected 92% of its N3.19trn target.
The non-oil share of its collections in Q1 was 51%, rising to 67% in Q3.
The challenge is to boost collections equitably and on a sustainable basis rather levy one-off charges from easy targets such as large companies.
The new administration is said to have a target of US$2bn in external financing on a concessional basis in 2016, compared with US$1.3bn this year.
This would likely include external parties which feature in the DMO’s federal government debt data such as the World Bank (loans of US$6.09bn at end-June 2015) and China’s Exim Bank (US$1.39bn).
The FGN is expected to seek funding from other regular partners which do not appear in the data because, we assume, their support is provided wholly on a grant basis, such as the EU (other than the European Development Fund) and the UK’s Department for International Development.
The DMO’s external debt stock series shows that only the Eurobonds (US$1.50bn) were contracted on a market basis in a total of US$10.32bn at end-June
8. Picture for debt service less healthy – May 14, 2015