Friday, January 04, 2019 11:50AM / By Andrew S Nevin, PhD
Review Coverage: APC, PDP, ACPN and YPP
Previously, we have discussed the criticality of this election in Nigeria from an economic standpoint - we continue to get poorer and poorer per capita (from 2015 and potentially to 2022, according to the IMF) and the absolute necessity for the next President to reverse this.
We also discussed some harsh realities about Nigeria, including the fact that we will never be able to deliver the critical programs we need on the ground (like education and primary healthcare) in a centralized way, implying that some type of Federal/State political restructuring is required if we want to not be a failed state.
These articles were all leading up to an assessment - from an economic perspective - of the Manifestos of the leading Presidential aspirants. Here as promised are some thoughts on the 4 leading Presidential candidates' economic programs - APC (our incumbent, President Muhammed Buhari), PDP (Former Vice President Atiku), and the 2 smaller party candidates who look the most credible to me: Madam Obi Ezekwesili (Allied Congress Party of Nigeria - ACPN) and Dr Kingsley Moghalu (Young Progressive Party - YPP).
I chose Dr K and Madam Obi as the most credible candidates outside the 2 main parties.
If any reader thinks someone else has equal credibility, please let me know and I will expand this analysis to include other Manifestos.
Let me also state again these are my personal views and do not represent the views of any organization I am associated with and that these are thoughts from a purely economic perspective (not a political perspective) and do not consider other critical issues Nigeria faces (corruption and security being the most important).
Finally, Nigeria is a young country, with over 50% of the population below 30. The young people of Nigeria in fact have it in their power to choose Nigeria's direction. I urge every young person in the country to do the best they can to be engaged in the political process and to vote. You are the future and this is your country ... take control of it.
So coming back to our core issue in this post, the exam question is: Which economic program will:
For the APC, I consider the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), since there is no indication that the APC will stop pursuing this detailed agenda if re-elected.
For the PDP, I consider the Let's Get Nigeria Working Again program.
For Madam Obi and the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria, I consider Project Rescue Nigeria.
For Dr Kingsley and the Youth Progressive Party, I consider Build, Innovate, and Grow - My Vision for our Country.
All of the Manifestos are over 100 pages (with PDP's almost 200), so not a simple Christmas task!
Source: LinkedIn
Let me say on a positive note that all candidates recognize that we cannot continue to get poorer and poorer and have put considerable effort in their economic policies. All at least state that we need to have a vibrant private sector if we are to succeed (I have been saying we need a private sector 10-15 bigger in 7-10 years for quite some time now).
However, looking at the totality of the program's, the candidate who has the most coherent economic vision for Nigeria is ... Dr. Kingsley Moghalu. Build, Innovate, and Grow (BIG) does 3 things that the other Manifestos do not:
So let's look a little deeper at each Manifesto.
Let me start with the ERGP. This was issued in 2017 and we can in fact evaluate the results so far. On the positive side, there are many people in the current regime working very hard and doing the right thing to make Nigeria better. Let me cite 3 of these:
However, these positive areas cannot compensate for 4 major structural impediments to economic progress:
Finally, the ERGP makes no real mention of any type of Federal/State economic restructuring economic that gives the States the power and resources to do what can only be done at a State and local level - education, primary healthcare, local infrastructure, and attracting investment.
We have been continuing to get poorer and poorer under the ERGP (even when the oil price was over $70) and it is hard to see that reversing in 2019, particularly as oil prices crash (Brent is below $55 as I write) if the APC regime continues.
Now let's consider the economic manifestos of the PDP and the ACPN (I consider them together because it many ways they have similar challenges). Let me acknowledge both these manifestos give a clear and precise diagnosis of our economic and social challenges - the most people in absolute poverty (87m), the most children not in school (13m), and our massive youth unemployment problem.
Madam Obi's Manifesto in particular gives a compelling case for what needs to change, and her dashboard numbers are extremely helpful. I was particularly impressed by her passion for getting our children into school and recognizing that our most valuable resource is people (I in fact wrote about this recently). So both Manifestos start out as very promising. But if we look at the details, both are very likely to result in continuation of the/our current problems:
In the end, I see the Manifestos of both the PDP and ACPN as essentially long wish lists still rooted in the over-centralization of the Nigerian Federation and lacking both an overarching philosophy and the courage to tackle the real issues that are causing our massive underperformance.
Given this massive underperformance, only a bold program that is candid about what needs to be done - and is prepared to do it - can be successful.
And this is where the Manifesto of Dr Kingsley and ultimately the economic program of the YPP is superior. Dr K begins his economic analysis (p67 if you want to read it in full ) with a detailed look at the range of capitalist models to argue precisely what will work in Nigeria (Entrepreneurial Capitalism is his conclusion). He also rightly - and candidly - diagnoses that our current system of crony capitalism cannot work for us, so needs to be changed.
Dr K has the most incisive analysis of our
unsustainable fiscal regime and is willing to face up to our looming debt
crisis (we currently use 60 kobo out of every Naira of tax revenue to pay
interest on our debt).
He also rightly recognizes that we need rural Nigeria
to prosper if we are going to succeed. Fifty Three percent (53%) of Nigerians
live in rural areas and it is not sufficient for just Lagos State to do well
... or even Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt, and Kaduna ... we need all of Nigeria
to do well.
Finally, Dr K faces up squarely to the Federal/State
Restructuring issue - he is courageous enough to say, not only do we need
Restructuring, but that at least 30 of 36 States are economically unviable, so
only a Restructuring that reduces the economic units (back to 6 in Dr K's case)
can work for us.
Here are 5 critical policies from the YPP Manifesto that will have a particularly positive impact on reversing our decline:
So of the Manifestos of the APC, PDP, ACPN, and YPP, only the YPP's Manifesto has the coherence and boldness to reverse our current economic path.
Let me re-iterate again these are my personal views and do not represent any of the organizations with which I am affiliated.
Finally ... I urge all Nigerians to exercise their hard won democratic rights. As we look around the world in 2019, we see democratic rights being rolled back around the planet - don't let this happen here. What we have accomplished in the short time since military rule is astonishing and wonderful ... please treat it with respect and continue to support the maturing of democracy and the growth of a stronger civil society in Nigeria. This means at a minimum being engaged with this critical election, and voting.
I particularly want to see young people engaged and voting - not only are they the future for Nigeria ... they also can control Nigeria today if they used their power.
God Bless Nigeria.
Proshare Election Resources
3. Donald Duke 2019 Policy Document – Getting The Basics Right
4. The Revolution of Ideas: My Manifesto – Tope Fasua
5. ADC Manifesto - Eight Cardinal Point Manifesto for the Well Being of The People and State
6. Next Level: The APC 2019 Manifesto
7. Atiku Abubakar 2019 Policy Document
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