Shortly
after former Vice President Atiku Abubakar became the flag-bearer of the
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on October 6, party members and other
stakeholders began to recommend running mates for him and a short list began to
feature on the front pages of Nigerian newspapers. Some of the names that were
mentioned included former Governor Peter Obi, former CEO/Managing Director,
Assets Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON) - Mustapha Chike-Obi, former
Minister of Agriculture and AfDB President - Akin Adesina, former Minister of
Finance and Supervising Minister of the Economy - Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former
CBN Governor -Charles Soludo, and Deputy Senate President - Ike Ekweremadu.
For
about five days, there were theories and permutations, and a comparison of the
credentials of the proposed running mates. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar
has acted pro-actively by quickly putting an end to the speculations. He met
with the party leadership, consulted with other interest groups and promptly
announced Peter Obi. If this is a sign of how he intends to run Nigeria if he
becomes President, then he is off to a good start. In the past week, he
also did something else that was clever. He made peace with his former boss,
President Olusegun Obasanjo. He asked for Obasanjo’s blessings and Obasanjo,
wearing his hat as a seasoned political pragmatist and ebora strategist,
endorsed Atiku.
The
speech delivered by Obasanjo on that occasion is an elegant study in the art of
being important. President Obasanjo said he has forgiven Atiku for his
many sins, which he Obasanjo had complained about previously. He
described him as someone who has a knowledge of business, who is less
inflexible and a “Wazobia” man. There were subtle digs at the incumbent
President Muhammadu Buhari, when Obasanjo advised Atiku not to recruit only
kith and kin and try to run an inclusive government. In the same speech,
Obasanjo reminded Atiku of his indebtedness to the Obasanjo legacy and the need
to sustain that legacy. He also set an agenda for the man he described as
Nigeria’s President-to-be. He even said “Insha Allah”. Obasanjo in that
well-composed speech, practically killed many birds with one stone in many
incantatory voices: boss, statesman, and letter-writer.
It
was Atiku’s second biggest endorsement since he got his party’s ticket – the
first being his victory in Port Harcourt. Obasanjo’s endorsement is
particularly significant given the history of the relationship between both
men. To add that Obasanjo has voice, influence and authority is to state the
obvious, and we need to tell those who argue that Obasanjo has just one vote
that they are politically dumb! Atiku’s boss has given him a new testimonial
that has refurbished him. Obasanjo who once tore his membership card of the
PDP, has also more or less re-oxygenated the party’s Presidential aspiration.
The panic that this has caused in the Buhari camp is perfectly understandable
even if the resort to name-calling and abuse by the President’s foot-soldiers
may be counter-productive in the long run. It won’t make Obasanjo and his
associates change their mind. Atiku’s gain is Buhari’s loss.
Then
came the rise of Peter Obi… Without a doubt, all the persons on the shortlist
of running mates for Atiku have relative strengths. They have all proven their
mettle in the public arena. But with Peter Obi already chosen, we need not
indulge in any detailed comparison except to note that very important to the
selection process would have been, not just geo-politics, but also such factors
as the temperament of the individual, the chemistry between the principal and
the deputy, electoral value, international exposure, acceptability by key
stakeholders and public persona.
My
take is that former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi is bound to strengthen
the chances of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the scheduled 2019
Presidential elections. He will prove to be an asset to the Atiku campaign and
also to the Nigerian government if the PDP wins the Presidential election. The
announcement of his name has generated so much excitement in Igboland,
particularly in his home state of Anambra where people broke out in dancing
jigs at beer parlours, and free drinks were declared. Across the South East,
his Igbo kinsmen are also similarly excited. Those who know him in politics and
business attest to his good character, self-discipline, competence and
fair-mindedness. I want to congratulate Alhaji Atiku Abubakar for choosing
wisely and I want to disagree with those who argue that the Presidential
candidate of the PDP should have chosen his running mate from the South Western
part of the country.
The
choice of a running mate of Igbo extraction is a politically deft move. The
last time Igbos held the number 2 position in a civilian government was way
back in the Second Republic (1979 -83). Since the return to civilian rule
in 1999, they have either been Senate President or heads of key agencies (under
President Obasanjo) or Deputy Senate President and generally junior operatives
(under President Buhari) or held critical Ministerial positions or headship of
agencies and departments –indeed the entire economic sector (under President
Jonathan). But Ndigbo’s main interest is the big job: the Presidency of
Nigeria. The choice of Peter Obi and his likely emergence as Vice President of
Nigeria brings Igbos much closer to consideration for Presidency either in 2023
or 2027. For a people who believe that they have been short-changed by other
Nigerians and that the civil war has not actually ended, the possibility of one
of their own returning to the Presidency, 35 years after Ekwueme, is bound to
promote a sense of belonging. By choosing an Igbo man, Atiku is also
exploiting prevailing sentiments in Igboland. The average Igbo, either in the
South East or in diaspora, is certainly not impressed by the Buhari
administration.
The
circumstances of Operation Crocodile Tears and the crushing of the rebellion of
the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra Movement (IPOB), pitched Igbos against Buhari.
Atiku is seeking to bring them back into the fold. Call it opportunism, but
that is politics. A Yoruba running mate would have looked like the Buhari
template. Atiku also probably knows that the Yoruba in the South West do not
always vote as a bloc and that the South West is far more divided today than
ever. The electoral value of the Yoruba man, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, who
is Buhari’s running mate for now, except he changes him, lies more in his being
part of a political group in the South West, and right now, even that group is
divided, it has lost part of its grip, and its leader is fighting many
political battles of his own. An Igbo running mate can guarantee bloc Igbo
voting, in Igboland and from Igbos who are all over Nigeria. The votes may not
necessarily be for Peter Obi as a person but for the Igbo nationalistic
interest.
I
say this because I have heard some people say Peter Obi may not even be able to
deliver Anambra. I say to such persons that even the incumbent Governor of
Anambra, Willie Obiano of APGA, who has issues with Peter Obi, or David Umahi,
Ebonyi Governor (PDP) and Chairman of the South East Governors Forum, would
dread being found out to be working against the possibility of an Igbo man
emerging again as Vice President of Nigeria. In terms of political strategy, it
can be taken for granted that the South South, still angry over how the Buhari
government has treated President Goodluck Jonathan and others from that region,
will also naturally vote en masse against Buhari. Technically, Atiku may have
locked down the South South and the South East and can be sure of substantial
votes from the South West where his promise of restructuring resonates well
with the socio-cultural and political elite.
But
why Peter Obi? Obi, Governor of Anambra State for eight years, survivor of
election battles, has proven himself to be an astute politician and leader. As
Governor, he blocked the leaky buckets. He reduced wastages and leakages. He
led by example. He served the people. He left a healthy balance behind in the
treasury. He was known across the South East as Peter the Rock or Okwute,
and he more than any other former Governor has spent his time out of office, to
prepare himself for a bigger role in Nigeria. He didn’t disappear from the
radar. He didn’t take the option of going to the Senate which has become a
retirement home for former Governors who go there to sleep and snore during
plenary and collect heavy retirement benefits for saying nothing.
Peter
Obi returned to school. He chose the lecture circuit where he shared his
experience as Governor with Nigerians, mostly young Nigerians. He was always on
point: he preached good governance, prudence, accountability and gave personal
examples. He granted the media access to him and he granted interviews as
frequently as he could. He became an analyst and something slightly close to
being a public intellectual. He built a public persona as someone who
understands business, politics, the economy and governance. He attended
international programmes and built a network of contacts. He was my
course mate at the Said Business School, University of Oxford and I can attest
that he can hold his own confidently in the company of persons of extreme
intelligence and superb skills. Above all, he is humble and approachable.
He can fit into a team. He is young. He is also rich, but I hear he does
not like to spend money! He is a strong member of the Catholic Faith, and he
bears the name Peter. From what we know about him, his Peter will not deny
Atiku whenever the cock crows. He has recognition, respect and
relevance.
So,
there you have it: the Atiku-Obi Presidential team of the Peoples Democratic
Party. Good to go. But how will Atiku handle the North, his own political zone?
That is the other question for analysis to be addressed shortly.
Previous Posts by Dr. Reuben Abati
2. Nigeria’s Certificate Scandals
4. A Brief Manual Of Nigerian
Politics – Beyond 2019 Soundbites
5. Buhari, 2019 Elections and the
Law
6. Rule Of Law: The President Got
It Wrong
7. Dauragate As A Metaphor For
Governance In Nigeria
8. Understanding The Crisis Of
Defections and APC’s Response
10. Dasuki’s Bail, The Attorney
General and Commitment To The Rule Of Law
11. Hadi Sirika And The Return Of
Nigeria Airways
12. Minister Kemi Adeosun’s NYSC
Certificate
13. The Adebayo Adedeji Example
14. In Defence Of The Fulani In
Our Midst
15. Ten Years After Lamidi Adedibu
16. Super Eagles And Marcus The
Pig At The World Cup
17. “Just Do Good”: A June 12 Story
18. Buhari And The June 12 Saga
20. The Impending Implosion Of APC
21. 2019 And The Politics Of
Campaign Finance
22. #Elections2019: Nigeria’s
Emerging Political Leaders
23. Mission: Impossible - Buhari’s
Impeachment
24. Where Is The Nigerian
Opposition?
25. Nigeria, ECOWAS and the
Morocco Question
26. The Kigali AU Summit:
Nigeria’s Diplomatic Blunder
27. Lagos State And The Politics
Of Taxation
28. Africa: A Continent Without
Democrats
29. Dapchi 110: The tragedy Of A
Nation
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