Wednesday, April 15, 2020 04:55 AM / by
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As if oil prices needed any more help on their downward spiral towards the teens, The IMF just
slashed global growth to the worst since the '30s.
"This crisis is like no other," Gita Gopinath, the
IMF's chief economist, wrote in a foreword to its semi-annual report.
"Like in a war or a political crisis, there is continued
severe uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the shock."
notes, The International Monetary Fund predicted the "Great Lockdown" recession would be the steepest in almost a century and warned the world
economyâ€™s contraction and recovery would be worse than anticipated if the
coronavirus lingers or returns.
In its first
World Economic Outlook report since the spread of the coronavirus and
subsequent freezing of major economies, the IMF estimated on Tuesday
that global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year.
to a January projection of 3.3% expansion and would likely mark the
deepest dive since the Great Depression. It would also dwarf the 0.1%
contraction of 2009 amid the financial crisis.
there is the hockey-stick recovery with IMF anticipating growth of 5.8%
next year, which would be the strongest in records dating back to
1980, it cautioned risks lay to the downside.
The grim projections are a stark
reversal from the IMF's outlook less than two months ago (on Feb. 19, the fund told
Group of 20 finance chiefs that "global growth appears to be bottoming
out.")... and now...
"Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising
a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand,
capital-flow reversals and a collapse in commodity prices," the IMF said.
"Risks of a worse outcome predominate."
And the impact
on the most economically-sensitive commodity is clear...
baseline scenario assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of this
year and that containment measures can be gradually wound down.
that is optimistic and that we're gonna need more production cuts and more
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