Tuesday, April 14, 2020 / 12:20 PM / by CSL Research / Header Image Credit: CNBC
During the public holidays, the alliance of OPEC+ producers, G-20 energy ministers and other oil producers reached a landmark deal which could cut close to 15.0mb/d from global oil supply. The details of the deal include;
We note that the sum of the agreed cuts brings total agreed cuts to 13.2mb/d but this is based on October 2018 production levels as the baseline for cuts. If we make April production the baseline, then total cuts comes to 17.2mb/d which is much closer to the much publicised headline cut of 20.0mb/d. According to Saudi Arabia oil minister, another supplemtary measure towards rebalancing the oil market would be in form of increased purchases into Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs). The next OPEC+ meeting is set for June 10.
In our view, the agreements as a whole has its positive and negatives and market reaction supports this view with Brent up only 0.8% at the close of Asian trading on Monday and up 1.4% today (as at time of writing). Also, we note that the deal and meeting proceedings have some far reaching consequences. However, our immediate concerns include;
For Nigeria, the deal comes as very timely when the nation is faced with weak fiscal buffer and frail external conditions. The newly agreed cuts would see Nigeria's oil production quota slump to 1.4mb/d from 1.7mb/d. With condesate production of 300kb/d - 400kb/d, total production would settle at 1.7mb/d - 1.8mb/d. Although, this revised quota is consistent with the revised budget benchmark of 1.7mb/d and US$30bbl, we believe the impact on IOCs remains negative given average production cost of US$23.0/bbl. Overall, we think government revenues from oil receipts will be worsened by soft oil prices and a deeper cut in production.