Has OPEC Stabilized Oil Markets? – OIR 141218

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Saturday, December 15, 2018 07:37 AM / Oilprice Intelligence Report

 

After a long period of declining prices and volatility in oil markets, the IEA claims that the OPEC+ meeting has put a floor under both WTI and Brent.

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Friday, December 14, 2018

IEA: OPEC+ puts floor beneath oil. The OPEC+ deal put “a floor” beneath oil prices, according to the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report. The agency said that non-OPEC supply could still outgrow demand next year, expanding by 1.5 mb/d while demand may only soak up 1.4 mb/d of that additional supply. As such, OPEC+ might be forced to maintain the cuts through the end of the year. However, there are plenty of uncertainties, including the extent of losses from Iran and Venezuela, while additional outages could come from Libya or elsewhere. For now, the IEA says the production cut deal will keep prices from falling further, but it is still too early to tell if the agreement will significantly boost prices. 

EIA: U.S. to average 12.1 mb/d in 2019. The EIA 
said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that the U.S. should average 12.1 mb/d in 2019, up sharply from a 10.9 mb/d average this year. Notably, the production estimate is mostly unchanged from previous months, even though oil prices have crashed. The EIA even lowered its expected price for Brent and WTI in 2019 by roughly $10 per barrel, but the agency clearly thinks that the production gains are mostly baked in already. 

Signs of demand slowdown in Asia. Refining figures in Asia suggest demand could be slowing down in the region, Bloomberg 
reports. Asian refining margins are at an eight-month low, which could be a leading indicator of slowing consumption.

OECD stocks above average. OECD stocks rose above the five-year average in October (the latest month for which data is available) for the first time since March. 

Neutral Zone could reopen. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are 
nearing a deal to restart idled oil fields in disputed territory along their shared border. The so-called Neutral Zone oil fields have the capacity to produce 500,000 bpd, but have been offline for several years. The U.S. government has leaned on both countries to resolve their differences, with an eye on shrinking supply from Iran. Chevron (NYSE: CVX), which jointly operates one of the fields in Kuwait, said it maintains “readiness for a production restart when that time comes,” according to the Wall Street Journal. 

Premier Oil Plc could bid for North Sea assets. Premier Oil plc (LON: PMO) is 
considering a $2 billion bid for a group of North Sea oil and gas assets from Chevron (NYSE: CVX). 

Nigeria files $1.1 billion claim against Shell. Nigeria has 
filed a $1.1 billion legal claim against Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) and Eni (NYSE: E) over a highly controversial 2011 oil license, the same license that has also ensnared Eni’s top brass in corruption inquiries in Italy. Nigeria filed a claim in a London court, alleging that the two oil companies, among others, “participated in a fraudulent and corrupt scheme,” according to the FT. 

Barclays: Brent at $72 in 2019. Barclays expects Brent to rise to $71 per barrel as early as the first quarter of 2019, which is much more optimistic than a raft of other forecasts that have come out lately. For the full year, Barclays sees Brent averaging $72 and WTI averaging $65. “Brent and WTI prices are poised to rebound in 1H19,” Barclays said in a note. “The inventory situation is far better than the last time cuts started in early 2017, and the cuts have already begun, as shown in December data.”

China stocked up on oil when prices fell. In at least two key regions in China, oil imports jumped by 26 percent in November compared to the average level from the prior ten months, according to 
Bloomberg. The rise in imports suggests China was stocking up on crude, taking advantage of low prices. 

Famed hedge fund manager says U.S. shale makes oil harder to predict. Andy Hall, a well-known hedge fund manager nicknamed “God” for the huge sums he has made on oil trading, said that U.S. shale has made the oil market much harder to predict. The short-cycle nature of shale, which stops and starts much quicker in response to price swings than conventional production, makes it harder to get ahead of the booms and busts. “It used to be, on the supply side of the equation, you could predict with some confidence what future supply was going to be, outside of global political events,” Hall told 
Bloomberg. Now, “everyone is groping. There are a lot of variables that we don’t have a good handle on.”

U.S. Senate votes to end war in Yemen. The U.S. Senate 
passed a bill to end American support for the war in Yemen, against the advice of Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and President Trump. The Senate also censured Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and blamed him for the murder of slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The bill will have no practical effect since the U.S. House of Representatives declined to move companion legislation earlier this week. But the issue is not over and with Democrats taking over control of the House in the New Year, the legislation could be revived. 

Saudi Arabia aims to cut oil shipments to United States. In an effort to drain the surplus of oil stocks, Saudi Arabia plans on curtailing shipments specifically to the U.S., according to 
Bloomberg
, a strategy intended to shift market psychology. Because the U.S. is one of the few countries that offers regular and transparent data on oil inventories, cutting down on stocks in the U.S. will transform how investors view the global market. Visible declines in inventories, which the EIA will report week after week, should bolster market confidence. It’s a strategy the Saudis used back in 2017 when it tried to boost prices.


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Previous Oilprice Intelligence Reports

1.       Uncertainty Lingers In Oil Markets Despite OPEC Cuts – OIR 121218

2.      OPEC Surprises Markets With Last Minute Deal - OIR 081218

3.      Oil Makes Gains Ahead Of OPEC Summit - OIR 041218

4.      Can Saudi Arabia Counter The Oil Price Crash? - OIR 281118

5.       OPEC Drowning Under Oil Supply Glut - OIR 231118

6.      Oil Companies Lose $1 Trillion As Prices Crash - OIR 201118

7.       Oil Rebounds On Hopes Of OPEC and Action – OIR 171118

 

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