October 02, 2019 /03:59AM / By Tom Kool of Oilprice.com
/ Header Image Credit: Oilprice.com
we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the
energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before
providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in
the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
- The EIA forecasts that global CO2
emissions from energy sources will grow uninterrupted through 2050, expanding
by about 1 percent per year on average in non-OECD countries, but declining by
0.2 percent per year in OECD countries.
- The agency says that large and growing populations in the
developing world will mean increased demand for air conditioning, electronics,
personal vehicles and other energy services.
- The EIA's forecasts do not include any policies related to
climate change that might alter the trajectory of emissions. A future in which
emissions continue to grow unabated is directly at odds with stated goals from
governments around the world that signed onto the Paris Climate Agreement.
- Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ExxonMobil
(NYSE: XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A)
are among 14 oil companies that registered for a November offshore oil auction
in Brazil. The Brazilian government is hoping to raise $25 billion from the
- Enbridge (NYSE: ENB) fell 2.7
percent on Monday after the Canada Energy Regulator stopped
the company from auctioning the right to ship oil through its Mainline system,
due to the "perception of abuse of Enbridge's market power."
- PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) said that it has achieved a
breakthrough in its shale gas exploration and added 741 billion cubic meters of
shale gas reserves in the Sichuan province plus 358 million tons of oil.
Tuesday October 1, 2019
Oil prices fell on Monday on diminished hopes of a
breakthrough in the U.S.-China trade war. Prices then stabilized in early
trading on Tuesday, on news that U.S. oil production fell in July (much of
which could be attributed to temporary hurricane-related outages).
Aramco up to 9.9 mb/d. Saudi Aramco said that it is producing
more than 9.9 mb/d, largely restoring production to levels seen prior to the
Abqaiq attack. The company is still working on restoring damaged spare
sweetens IPO with $75 billion dividend. Saudi Arabia said that Aramco would pay
$75 billion in annual dividends, an effort made to attract more investors ahead
of the company's IPO. The government also said that it would overhaul royalty
payments and cut corporate tax.
downgrades Aramco. Fitch cut Saudi Aramco's credit
rating due to geopolitical risks from A+ to A, with a stable outlook. "The
downgrade reflects rising geopolitical and military tensions in the Gulf
region, Fitch's revised assessment of the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia's
economic infrastructure and continued deterioration in Saudi Arabia's fiscal
and external balance sheets," Fitch said in a release.
CEO to retire. BP's (NYSE: BP) CEO Bob Dudley is
expected to retire next
year, ending his tenure at the British oil company that began in the wake of
the Deepwater Horizon disaster nearly a decade ago.
U.S.-based oil companies look to London for capital. A
growing number of U.S. oil companies are looking to list on the London Stock
Exchange after falling out of favor with investors in New York and Toronto,
according to the FT, which cited a few small-cap African-focused E&Ps that
chose London rather than North America for a public listing. "There are
investors in London with appetite for smaller cap African E&Ps," Cary
Bounds, Vaalco chief executive, told the FT. "Analysts in North
America have an educated understanding of shale play but they struggle with us.
London analysts understand how to value our business."
oil and gas production falls, LNG output up. Royal Dutch
Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) provided a quarterly update ahead of
its official third quarter earnings release at the end of October. Shell said
its upstream production fell by 2.7 percent compared to a year earlier, while
its LNG liquefaction rose by at least 10 percent. It also expects $250 to $350
million in write-offs due to unsuccessful exploration drilling.
hotel rates in Midland a sign of the times. Liam Denning of
Bloomberg Opinion wrote about the
double-digit decline in hotel rates in West Texas. That magnitude of a percentage
decline is "very, very rare," said Jan Freitag, a senior VP at STR. "Normally,
you get that when something like a hurricane hits; like a natural disaster." The negative trend for hotel rates coincides with the contraction in drilling
meeting almost happened, but fell apart. Efforts by French
President Emmanuel Macron to broker a meeting between Trump and Rouhani came
close, but ultimately fell apart as the Iranian president declined to meet
until sanctions are removed. "There were subtle suggestions from both
Washington and Tehran about the prospect of negotiations, but I did not see a
shift in either side's bottom line," Henry Rome, Iran analyst at the Eurasia
Group, told the WSJ. "While neither
side is ready to make peace, they are very keen to avoid war."
wants control of oil discovery. Talos Energy
(NYSE: TALO) found nearly a billion barrels of oil off Mexico's
southern Gulf Coast in 2017, but according to Reuters, Pemex wants to take control of
the find. Oil executives and analysts told Reuters that doing so would chill
investment, frightening away the private sector.
pipeline regulations to be unveiled. The US Pipeline and
Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, or PHMSA, is expected to release three
new natural gas pipeline safety rules this week, eight years after the U.S.
Congress tasked the agency with doing so.
maintain downbeat oil price forecasts. A Wall Street Journal survey
of 13 major investment banks finds an average forecast price for Brent of
$64.31 in the fourth quarter, nearly unchanged from the average forecast a
month earlier. The assessments suggest that few analysts see lasting change to
the market from the Abqaiq attack.
gain stronger control over FERC. By tradition, the powerful
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is typically made up of both Republicans
and Democrats, but the agency is tilting more
finds exploration difficult in Brazil. BP (NYSE: BP) drilled
some unsuccessful exploration wells
in the Peroba deepwater block, in Brazil's offshore pre-salt. The company,
working with Petrobras, only found CO2 and natural gas, rather than oil.
- Oil Slides
As Middle East Tensions Fade - OIR 270919
Aramco Ramps Up IPO Preparations Despite Weakened Demand Outlook
Maritime Organization 2020 Deadline Fast Approaching
- Where Has
The Risk Premium Gone For Oil? - OIR 240919
- Fear Of An
Iran War Sends Oil Prices Up - OIR 200919
- The Biggest
Day For Oil In 50 Years - OIR 170919
Prices Of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - August 2019
- Platts: Oil
Could Test $80 After Attacks In Saudi Arabia
- Nigeria LNG
Seeks $10B Funding To Expand Operations With A Seventh Train
- Oil Prices
Set To Rise After Saudi Arabia Drone Attacks; Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output
By 5m Barrels
- Oil Demand
Destruction: A Trade War Reality
Sentiment Creeps Back Into Oil Markets - OIR 130919