Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary – WE 31st May, 2019


Saturday, June 01, 2019  / 07:00AM / By ARM Research 


Global Economy

Second estimate of the US Q1 2019 GDP released this week, showed a downward revision to 3.1% from 3.2% previously reported. The revision stems from much slower growth in nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment as well as an increase in imports, all of which offset the upward revisions to exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Meanwhile, US-instigated trade tensions took a new turn this week, following a surprise announcement by US president Trump to impose 5% tariff on all Mexican imports, effective June 10th. This was done to curb illegal immigration of Mexicans into the US via the southern border, with threats of imposing additional 25% duties in coming months if the objective is not met. Elsewhere, China’s Manufacturing PMI returned to a contraction in May printing at 49.4 from 50.1 in the previous month.  This largely reflects slowdown in manufacturing activities spurred by trade war with the US.


Domestic Economy 

Earlier this week, President Buhari signed the appropriation bill of N8.92 trillion into law. The signed budget is N90 billion higher than the initial budget proposed by the President, comprising N10 billion to Zamfara victims of bandit attacks, N23 billion for lawmakers’ severance packages and N66 billion increase in allocations to security and defense institutions. However, key budget assumptions were left unchanged – oil production: 2.3 mbpd, oil price: $60/bbl., and exchange rate: N305/USD. Elsewhere, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on sectoral Value Added Tax (VAT) for Q1 2019 which showed a 7% YoY increase in total VAT generated to N289 billion (-3% QoQ). Of the total VAT generated, N137 billion is sourced locally, N99 billion via non-import (foreign) VAT and N53 billion via NCS-import VAT. The other manufacturing, professional services and commerce sectors remained the top contributors to local VAT generated – making up 52% of local VAT.  



The Nigerian Equities market closed positive this week with the NSE ASI appreciating 0.61% WoW to close at 31,069.37 points and market capitalization gaining N82.84 billion. Notably, the banking (+3.06%), food (+2.58%), oil & gas (+5.96%),  construction (+2.15%) and insurance (+1.30%) sectors spurred the gains, offsetting losses in the personal care (-0.99%), brewers (0.61%) and cement (-0.25%) sectors. A close evaluation of the market’s performance reveals interest across various stocks such as MANSARD: +10.00%, UBA: +8.70%, ACCESS: +5.17%, ZENITH: +5.79%, SEPLAT: +5.75%, DANGFLOUR: +4.66%, CCNN: +7.14%, JULIUSBERGER: +3.70%, NESTLE: +3.57%, and GTBANK: +1.61%.


Fixed Income

At the NTB auction held during the week, N67.4 billion worth of bills was sold (same as offered), with subscription coming strong at N195 billion (2.9x the amount offered). The upbeat demand placed downward pressure on stop rates which, on average, dipped 21 bps to 11.38% — 90-day (unchanged at 10%), 182-day (-35 bps to 11.95%) and 365-day (-29 bps to 12.2%). This sparked increased demand at the NTB secondary market, as average yield contracted 23bps WoW to 11.95%, following interest in the 90-day and 182-day bills. Meanwhile, average bond yields, closed flat WoW at 13.94%, following increased demand for the JUL 21(-53bps WoW) bond, which offset selloff of the MAR 25 (+22 bps WoW) and JAN 26 (+12bps WoW) bonds respectively.


Take-Away For The Week

Capital Importation trend

This week, we feature the trend in capital importation over a year, revealing trend in foreign portfolio investments (FPI), foreign direct investment (FDI) and other investments.


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


Research 234 (1) 2701653  research@armsecurities.com.ng

Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 310519 


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.



Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.



Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


Do you wish to be included in the Events Calender? 

Kindly email business@proshareng.com or/and market@proshareng.com Tel: 0700PROSHARE (070077674273) to share information about your Business, Economic and Financial Markets event.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Most Recent Weekly Commentaries

1.       Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary – WE 24th May, 2019

2.      Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary – WE 17th May, 2019

3.      Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary – WE 10th May, 2019

4.      Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary – WE 03rd May, 2019

5.      Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary – WE 12th Apr, 2019

6.      Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary - April 01 - 05, 2019

7. Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary – WE 22nd March, 2019

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Related News

1.       Banking Sector Records 557.08m Volume of Transactions in Q1 2019 - NBS

2.      723,995 Passengers Travelled Via Rail in Q1 2019 - NBS

3.      NEM Insurance; The Good, The Uncertain And The Possible

4.      Oando Challenges SEC’s Ruling On The Outcome Of The Forensic Audit Into Oando PLC

5.      ETI Specialized Resolution Company To Appeal Court Judgment On Honeywell Suit

6.      Oil Tanks On Fears Of U.S., Mexico Trade War – OIR 310519

7.      NASD OTC Market CAP Decreased By -0.17% WoW To Close At N537.84bn

8.     Cabinet reshuffling in South Africa: Any lesson for Nigeria?

9.      Market Review and Round-Up of Corporate News Announced During The Week Ending 310519

10.  SEC Announces Far Reaching Decisions On The Investigation Of Oando Plc

11.   Club Inspirati Inaugurates BOT, Life Patrons and New Excos

12.  Corporate Earnings For The Week Ending 310519 – UNITYKAP Declares N127.08mln PAT in Q1 2019 Results

13.  Investors Gain N82.84bn WoW As NSEASI Inches Up By 0.61% To Close The Week Positive

14.  SEC Issues Circular On Unclaimed Dividends Of Defunct Skye Bank Plc

15.   Day of Change or Day of Continuity?

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.     




Related News