Tuesday, February 12, 2019 08:31 AM / NBS
Overview of GDP in Quarter Four 2018
In the fourth quarter of 2018, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.38% in real terms (year-on-year). This represents an increase of 0.27% points when compared to the fourth quarter of 2017 which recorded a growth rate of 2.11%. It also indicates a rise of 0.55% points when compared with the growth rate recorded in Q3 2018. On a quarter on quarter basis, real GDP growth was 5.31%.
The fourth quarter growth performance implies that real GDP grew at an annual growth rate of 1.93% in 2018, compared to 0.82% recorded in 2017, an increase of 1.09% points.
During the quarter, aggregate nominal GDP stood at N35,230,607.63 million, which is higher than N31,275,354.08 million recorded in Q4 2017, a nominal growth rate of 12.65%. For 2018, nominal GDP was therefore recorded at N127,762,545.58million representing a nominal growth rate of 12.36% when compared to N113,711,634.61million recorded in 2017.
The Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors (Figure 1):
The Oil Sector
In the fourth quarter of 2018, average daily oil production stood at 1.91 million barrels per day (mbpd). This was lower than the 1.95 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2017, and 1.94mbpd in Q3 2018. (Figure2).
The oil sector recorded a real GDP growth rate of –1.62% (year-on-year) in Q4 2018, indicating a decline of –12.81% points relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2017. However, when compared to Q3 2018, growth increased by 1.29% points. On an annual basis, real GDP growth for the oil sector stood at 1.14% as against 4.69% recorded in 2017.
The Oil sector contributed 7.06% to real GDP in Q4 2018, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2017 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.35% and 9.38% respectively. For 2018, the contribution of the oil sector to aggregate real GDP was 8.60%, slightly lower when compared with 8.67% in 2017.
The Non-Oil Sector
The non-oil sector grew by 2.70% in real terms during the fourth quarter of 2018. This is 1.25% points higher than the growth rate recorded in Q4 2017, and 0.38% points higher than the growth rate recorded in Q3 2018. On an annual basis, the non-oil sector recorded a growth rate of 2.00% in 2018, performing considerably better than 0.47% seen in 2017. The key performing activities during the quarter were Information and communication, Transportation & Storage, Arts & Entertainment, Agriculture and Manufacturing.
The Non-Oil sector contributed 92.94% to real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018, slightly higher than the 92.65% seen in Q4 2017. For 2018, annual contribution was recorded at 91.40% against 91.33% in year 2017. Key performing activities on an annual basis include Transport, Information & Communication, Electricity, Water, as well as Arts & Entertainment.
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