Job Creation Increases by 5.1% in Q4'15; Declines by 83.1% in Q1'16


Wednesday, August 31, 2016 12:50pm /NBS

This Summary Table contains the latest estimates for jobs created in the Nigerian economy for the Fourth Quarter of 2015 and the First Quarter of 2016. These estimates are the results of the Quarterly Job Creation Survey commissioned by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in collaboration with the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The objective of the quarterly survey is to track the number of employment being created in the economy within a given period of time, provide multi-sectoral and policy relevant data on the employment-generating sectors, seasonality in employment and the labour market.

The findings are categorized into Formal sector jobs, Informal sector and Public sector jobs. Formal jobs refer to employment generated in establishments that employ 10 persons and above, or formal professional services that employ less than 10 persons.

The Informal jobs are those generated by individuals or businesses employing less than 10 or those businesses operating with little or no structures e.g. those in Agriculture, Light Manufacturing, Wholesale and Retail Trade, etc. While The Public Institutions are the Government Ministries, Departments, Agencies (MDAs), Government Parastatals, Academic and Research Institutions at Federal, State and Local government levels.

The Quarterly Job Creation survey is a nationwide survey, covering all 36 states of the federation including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). A sample of 5000 establishments was taken across the country across all economic activities.

This round of the survey, for which estimates are being reported, achieved a response rate of 89.3 percent from the establishments selected in the sample, which is sufficient enough and commendable. The following selected tables are the key findings from the surveys, a detailed report of the survey results will be published subsequently.

Findings of the 4th Quarter of 2015 and 1st Quarter 2016 Survey
In the fourth quarter of 2015, the total number of new employment recorded in the economy was 499,521 jobs, which was an increase of 5.1 percent (24,341) when compared with the preceding quarter and 35.2 percent (130,036) when compared to the fourth quarter of 2014.

The increase in the number of jobs in the fourth quarter was driven mainly by a seasonal induced rise in informal sector jobs, which accounted for 95.4 percent (476,563) of total jobs. It was followed by formal sector jobs, which accounted for 5.5 percent (27,246) of jobs in the fourth quarter of 2015, while the public sector for the first time recorded a negative figure of -4,288 for that quarter.

In quarter one of 2016, the total number of employment generated was 79,469 jobs, representing a sharp decline of 83.1 percent (389,605) year on year and 84.1percent (420,056) from the previous quarter.

This sharp decline in employment generation in the 1st quarter of 2016 is strongly correlated to the weakening economic output within that period, where the Nigerian economy recorded a negative growth of -0.36 percent. The 79,469 jobs created in that quarter consisted of 21,477 formal sector jobs and 61,026 informal sector jobs. The public sector just like in the 4th quarter of 2015, recorded a negative figure of -3.038.

Under the informal sector, which typically consists of low skill and often low paying predominantly blue collar jobs in individual or unregistered household businesses employing less than 10 and operating with little or no structures such as those in Agriculture, Light Manufacturing, Trade and Other Services, recorded 476,563 jobs in the 4th quarter of 2015 and 61,026 jobs in the 1st quarter of 2016.

This shows that as in previous quarters, most of the jobs generated in the review period fell under informal activities, 95.4percent and 76.8percent in the 4th Quarter of 2015 and the 1st quarter of 2016 respectively.

The fourth quarter of the year has historically recorded a growth in economic activities, with the month of December being a major festive period with all its related activities such as carnivals, parties and the likes. Hence there is always a significant amount of ad-hoc or seasonal jobs on offer within that period, particularly in Trading as well as Transport and Logistics activities.

These seasonal induced jobs tend to disappear in the following new year and quarter. Also accounting for the increase in informal jobs in the fourth quarter of 2015, is the increase in the number of people previously not in the labour force but now in the labour force and working informal jobs.

The survey showed more people who were not willing or available for work in previous quarters are now working informal jobs in trade, catering services, tailoring and the likes. Additionally, a huge amount of the previous full time employees in the formal sector who lost their jobs in the period under review tended to seek informal sector jobs to make ends meet thereby increasing the underemployment rate in the period from 17.4% in Q3 2015 to 18.7% in Q4 2015

Employment generation in the Formal sector recorded a 34.6 percent (14,426) decline in the fourth quarter when compared to the third quarter of 2015 and 80.3percent (110,780) decline when compared to the 4th quarter of 2014. The 1st quarter of 2016 further recorded a decline in formal sector jobs, declining by 21.2percent quarter on quarter and by 83.6percent year on year.

As a result, the number of formal employment generated in quarter 4 of 2015 was 27,246 and 21,477 in the 1st quarter of 2016. This drop was visible across all the economic activities and is reflection of the slowing down of economic activities in two quarters under review.

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