Friday, October 14, 2016 5.03pm/NBS
All Items Index
In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 17.9 percent (year-on-year), 0.24 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in August 2016 (17.6 percent). Increases were recorded all COICOP divisions which contribute to the Headline Index. Communication and Restaurants and Hotels recorded the lowest rates of increase of the 12 divisions, growing by 5.6 percent and 9.6 percent respectively.
The Food Sub Index increased by 16.6 percent (year-on-year) in September, up by 0.19 percent points from rate recorded in August (16.4 percent). A number of groups within the food index recorded falls in the rate of price increases, including Fish, which had previously been a key driver, as well as Oils and Fats, and Fruits.
Price movements recorded by the All Items less farm produce or Core sub-index increased by 17.7 percent (year-on-year) in September, up by 0.5 percent points from rates recorded in August (17.2 percent). During the month, the highest increases were seen in Clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories, Garments, Shoes and other footwear, Books and stationeries, Jewelry, clocks and watches, and Motorcycles.
Energy and energy related prices continue to be the largest increases reflected in the Core sub-index. In September, the Core sub-index increased by 17.7% during the month, up by 0.5% points from rates recorded in August (17.2%). During the month, the highest increases were seen in the Electricity, Liquid Fuel (kerosene), Solid Fuels, and Fuels and Lubricants for Personal Transport Equipment groups.
On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index eased, increasing by 0.8 percent in September, down from 1.0 percent in August. The Urban Index rose by 19.5 percent (year-on-year) in September from 19.3 percent recorded in August and the Rural Index increased by 16.4 percent in September from 16.1 percent in August. On a month on month basis, both the Urban and Rural Index eased, increasing by 0.8 percent a piece.
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending in September 2016 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 13.5 percent, higher from 12.7 percent recorded in August.
The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index increased from 13.6 percent in August to 14.4 percent in September, while the corresponding rural index also increased from 12.0 percent in August to 12.6 percent in September.
The Composite Food Index rose by 16.6 percent in September. The rise in the index was caused by increase in prices of Meat, Bread and cereals and Oil and Fats.
On a month on month basis the Food index increased by 0.8%, a slower rate than that recorded in the previous month of 1.2%, continuing the downward trend witnessed since May 2016.
The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in September 2016 over the previous twelve-month average was 13.2 percent, 0.5 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in August (12.7 percent).
All Items Less Farm Produce
The ‘’All Items Less Farm Produce’’ or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce increased by 17.7 percent during the month, 0.5 percent points from 17.2 percent in August as all key divisions which contributes to the index increased.
On a month on month basis, this sub-index increased by 1.0%, and slight increase relative to the 0.9% recorded in the previous, which ends a three-month period of decline in the month on month growth rate. As in the previous month, Electricity, Solid Fuels and Liquid fuels were the groups to record the highest price increases, although the Imported Food group remained high.
The average 12-month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 12.98 percent for the twelve-month period ending in September 2016, 0.7 percent points higher from the twelve-month rate of change recorded in August, which was 12.25 percent.
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1. Headline Inflation projected to reach 18% - FDC