Wednesday, December 30, 2020 04:00
PM / NBS/ Header Image Credit: NBS
Terms of Trade
The terms of trade (TOT) represent the ratio between a country's export prices and its import prices. The ratio is calculated by dividing the price of the exports by the price of the imports, usually in percentage terms. An increase in the terms of trade between two periods (or when TOT is greater than 100%) means that the value of exports is increasing relative to the value of imports, and the country can afford more imports for the same value of exports. For example, an increase in the price of oil between two periods (with oil production remaining the same) is likely to increase or improve the terms of trade for Nigeria and vice versa. The TOT is recorded as an index, and can be used as an indicator of an economy's health.
Commodity Price Index July to September, 2020
All commodity group import index (Table 1).
The All commodity group import index rose by 1.89% between July and September 2020. This was driven mainly by an increase in the prices of Products of the chemical and allied industries (9.55%), wood and articles of wood (4.37%), and live animals; animal products (4.06%). However, it was negatively affected by decline in the prices of Prepared foodstuff: beverages (-5.07%), textile and textile articles (-1.07%) and Raw Hides & skins, leather (-0.92%).
Between July and August 2020, the All commodity group import index rose by 2.49%. This was driven mainly by Products of the chemical and allied industries, which rose 6.8%, Vegetable products (6.07%) and Animal and Vegetable fats and oil (6.05%) but was negatively affected by decline in prices of Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar (-5.19%), Textiles and textile articles (-2.75%) and Raw hides and Skin, leather, furskins etc (-2.38%).
Between August and September 2020, the All commodity group import index decreased by 0.60%. This was as a result of decrease in prices of Animal and Vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage products (-5.22%), Plastic, rubber and articles (-3.13%) and Vegetable products (-2.50%). The decline was offset by increase in the prices of wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (6.13%), products of the chemical and Allied industries (2.73%), Textile and Textile articles (1.68%).
All commodity group export index (Table 2)
Between July and September 2020, All commodity group export price index decreased by 0.30% due to decrease in the prices of Products of chemical and Allied industries (-2.10%), Base metals and articles of base metals (-1.95%) and Paper making material (-0.74%). However, increases were recorded for Boilers, machinery and appliances (5.38%), Prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits and Vinegar (1.9%) and Vegetable products (1.05%).
Between July and August 2020, the All commodity group export index increased by 0.22%. This was driven mainly by wood and articles of wood, charcoal and articles (4.78%), Live animals, animal products (1.67%) and Vegetable products (1.60%). It was negatively affected by base metals and articles of base metals (-1.08%), Plastic rubber and articles (-0.90%) and Paper making materials, Paper and paperboard (-0.68%).
Between August and September, the monthly percentage change in the All commodity export index stood at -0.52%.This decrease can be attributed to decreases in the prices of wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal (-4.09%), products of the chemical and Allied industries (-1.46%) and live animals, animal products (-0.91%). The decline was offset by higher prices for Boilers, Machinery and Appliances (4.9%), Prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits and Vinegar (1.60%), Textiles and textile articles (0.81%).
Terms of Trade by commodity (2018 Jan=100) (Table 3)
The All commodity group terms of trade index stood at 103.36 in July, 101.08 in August and 101.16 in September.
This represents a decrease of 2.21% in August compared to July but an increase of 0.08% in September against the preceding month. On average, the terms of trade decreased by 2.13% during the third quarter. This decrease is explained by a significant decrease in Products of the Chemical and Allied industries (-11.06%), Base metals and articles of base metals (-4.23%) as well as Live Animals, animal products (-3.16%). The decline was offset by higher prices of Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits, and vinegar; tobacco (7.28%) and Boilers, Machinery and Chemical appliances (5.26%).
All Region Group Export Index (Table 4)
Between July and August, the All region group export recorded an overall decrease of 0.30% mainly due to decreases in the prices of exports across Africa (-6.07%), Europe (-0.58%) and America (-0.1%) while Asia was the only region that recorded a positive change (2.75%). Between July and August, the region group export index recorded a marginal increase of 0.22% but a decrease of 0.52% between August and September.
In August 2020, the monthly change in the index (0.22%) was driven by increase in the export price to Asia (1.30%).
Between August and September 2020, the monthly change in the
All-Region export index stood at -0.52%. This is explained by decreases in
export prices to Africa (-5.96%) and Europe (â€“0.38%) while Asia and America recorded positive monthly change at 1.46% and 0.09%
All Region Group Import Index (Table 5)
Between July and September, the All region group import recorded an overall increase of 1.89%. This was due to increases in import prices from all regions: Oceania (6.9%), America (4.4%), Asia (1.8%) and Europe (1.53%). Between July and August, the all-region import index recorded an increase of 2.49% but fell 0.60% between August and September.
The August monthly change stood at 2.49% due to the contributions of Asia (3.30%), Europe (2.91%) and Oceania (1.76%) but was offset by decreases in Africa (-2.16%) and America (-0.69%).
Between August and September, the All region group import index stood at -0.60%. This was due to the decreased contributions of Asia (-1.46%) and Europe (-1.37%) but slightly offset by higher prices in Oceania (5.18%), America (5.11%) and Africa (1.29%).
Terms of Trade by Region [2018 Jan=100] (Table 6)
The All Region group terms of trade index stood at 103.36 in July, 101.08 in August and 101.16 in September.
The data showed that the terms of trade decreased by -2.21% in August but rose marginally by 0.08% in September. On average, the all-region terms of trade index decreased by 2.13% in Q3 due to decreases in export prices to Oceania (-6.66%), Africa (-5.06%), America (-4.30%) and Europe (-2.01%). However, export prices to Asia were higher by 1.03%.
Merchandise Trade By Top Five Partners And By Major Commodities, Q3 2020
India was the largest export market of Nigeria in Q3 2020. Export trade to India was valued at N500.63 billion, or 16.73% of the value of total exports. The dominant export commodity to India was Crude oil (valued at N444.89 billion). This was followed by Natural gas, liquified (N49.1 0billion), Cashew nuts, in shell (N 2.18billion), Soya beans, whether or not broken (N 1.14 billion) and Leather further prepared after tanning/crusting, (N0.71billion).
On the other hand, Nigeria imported motorcycles and cycles, CKD by established manufacturers >50cc<=250cc (worth N50.71billion), Other Antibiotics nes (N26.36billion), Vaccines for human medicine (N20.22billion) , Other Polyethylene (N9.27billion) and others from India during the period under review.
Nigeria's major export to Spain in Q3, 2020 was Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude, valued at N282.8 billion. This was followed by Natural gas, liquefied worth N42.6 billion, Leather further prepared after tanning/crusting without wool at N 1.8 billion and others.
During the quarter, Motor Spirit ordinary worth N20.65 billion was imported from Spain. Other imports from Spain included Mixed alkylbenzenes & mixed alkylanaphthalenes (N17.63 billion), Gypsum; anhydrite whether or not coloured, with/without small quantities of accelerators (N 4.37 billion).
C. The Netherlands
In Q3 2020, the dominant export commodity to The Netherlands was petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude (N216.7billion). This was followed by Natural gas, liquefied (N2.2 billion), Good Fermented Nigerian Cocoa Beans (N1.6billion), Other Frozen shrimps and prawns (N 1.2billion) and others. On the other hand, Motor Spirit valued at N180.7billion, Other Antibiotics valued at N79.5billion, Gas Oil valued at N 58.8billion, Blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis) meat, frozen (N10.2billion), and Motor spirit, super (N 10.1 billion) were the dominant imports from The Netherlands.
Turkey was among Nigeria's leading trading partners in the third quarter of 2020. Exports to Turkey was valued at N150 billion or 5.01%, largely dominated by Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, Crude (worth N138.75 billion). This was followed by Natural gas, liquefied, (N9.68billion) and Sesamum seeds (N1.35 billion). On the other hand, the value of imports stood at N59.26billion representing 1.10% of total imports. The top three import commodities from Turkey were Plasters of Calcined gypsum, Cooking Appliances, as well as Other Paper and paper board valued at N4.09billion, N2.60billion and N2.24 billion respectively.
In Q3 2020, Nigeria's export trade with China was dominated by Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude which accounted for N64.1billion of exports. This was followed by Natural gas, liquefied (N22.5billion) and Other petroleum gases etc in gaseous state (N16.2billion). In terms of imports, Other instruments, appliances and machines for measuring or checking, nes, Machines for the reception, conversion & transmission or regeneration of voice, images or..., Other appliances such as taps, cocks and other valves, nes were the dominant imports, each valued at N37.2billion, N37.1billion, and N35.2billion respectively.