When Do You Think The Economy Will Recover And Why Should I Not Relocate?


Monday, January 09, 2017/ 2:18 PM /FDC

First, it is important to note that an economic recovery is a process and not an event. Like a patient recuperating from malaria, the symptoms of recovery start to manifest when you are able to tolerate little quantities of food at first before a return to normal consumption.

The arduous journey to recovery may take another 18 months. However, the signs of recovery will start to manifest in 2017. The anticipated recovery will be slow and painful, more of a u-shaped pattern. This implies that we would witness several quarters of contraction in output before slowly returning to positive growth.

The government needs to have some specific steps, address low hanging fruits that will yield quick returns whilst adopting a strategy to achieve medium term goals. The government needs to adopt policies that will directly target consumption and increase spending, whilst attracting new investment to boost growth.

Timing is of the essence because of the lag between implementation and when impact is felt on the economy. Some key policies the government needs to consider/ already in place but yet to be implemented include:

Robust government spending financed through debt and concessioning of redundant assets to raise more dollars.

Full liberalization of the forex market to resolve the currency misalignment and create liquidity in the forex market by sending the right signal.

Lower interest rates to stimulate growth and debt sustainability and Create a more enabling environment that will boost real sector activity and investor confidence in the Nigerian market. Investors are looking for policy direction and consistency.

Concerning relocation, it is easy to understand why this might be the consideration of many Nigerians, after all when the going gets tough, the tough get going. People relocate primarily because they believe the standard of living in other countries is better and there are more opportunities.

They consider factors such as the Human Development Index (HDI), income per capita, when determining which cities to relocate to. Some of the most desired countries to relocate to include Canada (HDI: 0.91; income per capita: $50,000), Switzerland (HDI: 0.93; income per capita: $75,550), Singapore (HDI: 0.91; income per capita: $51,855). 1Nigeria has a HDI of 0.51 and an income per capita of $2,2832. Lagos and Abuja are also considered as some of the World’s most expensive cities.

The grass is not always greener on the other side; China was not the way it is now 20 years ago. It is also expensive to relocate. So you could decide to relocate and wait for others to do all the work and then return to benefit from the growth or be part of the recovery process. 

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