The Class War Between The Poor and The Very Poor – LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Mar 2019

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Tuesday, March 19, 2019    06.18AM / By Bismarck Rewane of FDC  / Header Image Credit: activated-europe.com

 

It is now time for Nigeria to face up to the needed heavy lifting required for national development, now that elections are over. But first, a recap of the elections which turned out to be one Between the Poor and the Very Poor…

 

  • I did not vote because all politicians are thieves - Ismaila Ahmed
  • My business is suffering and things are hopeless and I voted for the opposition – Aghedo Imasuen
  • Anything is better than what I am facing. I am unemployed and looking for work. I have no PVC – Olayinka Oyebode
  • Things are getting better slowly after the massive looting of years. I voted for Buhari - Sanusi Yakubu
  • The Customs seized all my goods that I bought from an importer. I am finished. I did not vote - Chukuwuma Okeke
  • I got Trader Moni and I can now get forex when I want. I voted for APC - Tobilola Olayemi

 

The February election was a class war between the poor and the very poor.

 

Kindly download The LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Mar 2019 

 

The middle class has been almost squeezed out of existence and the few rich continue to bilk the system. Our analysis reveals very interesting trends. These are anecdotal and empirical data showing that the turnout was highest in the states where the APC won and lowest in the PDP states.

 

The APC won a plural majority and were supported by the very poor and emotional voters. The average income per capita in the APC states is $1,545. It becomes more glaring when it is APC minus Lagos state (the income per capita now falls to $1,353). On the other hand, the PDP states accounted for an average income per capita of $2,585.

 

The average FAAC per state in the PDP states is N88.24bn. Whilst in the APC states it is N55.79bn. Again, if you take Lagos away from the APC states it falls sharply to N52.39bn.  More interesting is the fact that of the 10 states with the highest WAEC scores, 6 are PDP states (Abia, Imo, Bayelsa, Delta, Enugu and Ebonyi).

 

Also in this edition you will see how voter sentiment in states with high unemployment and inflation differs from the others.

 

These data points suggest that the economic recovery is modest and sustainable. The very poor states are more politically active than the poor states. There are no rich states in Nigeria. Buhari 3.0 will and must deliver rapid and sustainable economic growth to the impatient and emotional voters of 2019. The economic agenda is clear. Nigeria must grow at 4% in 2020/2021 or will languish for the next 5-10 years.

 

The attached slides are a synopsis of the state of the economy and the post-election outlook as presented by Bismarck Rewane at the LBS Breakfast Session. 

 

Kindly download The LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Mar 2019 

 

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Related LBS Executive Breakfast Sessions

1.              Election 2019 – The Political Anti-Climax – LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Feb 2019

2.             2019 – A Year of Anxiety, Fear and Uncertainty

3.             2019 - A Year of Trepidation And Growing Uncertainties – LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Dec 2018

4.             Political Headwinds and Economic Challenges – LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Nov 2018

5.              No Stability, No Democracy Bumpy Road Ahead - Fasten Your Seat Belts – LBS EBS - Oct 2018

6.             The Players Change But The Game Remains - LBS Executive Breakfast Session - Sept 2018

7.              Watching From The Political Balcony - LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Aug 2018

8.             From Russia with Tears and the New Economic Disorder - LBS EBS – July 2018

9.             The New Political Calculus – LBS EBS – June 2018

10.         Make Hay In May, While The Sun Still Shines – LBS EBS – May 2018

11.           Talking Economics and Thinking Politics – LBS EBS – April 2018

12.          At $65, Oil is Up 22.4% in 12 Months, Can It Fall Again?? – LBS EBS – March 2018

13.          2019 - The Changing Political Calculus – LBS EBS – February 2018

14.          The FDC 2018 Periscope – The Good, The Bad and The Annoying

15.          There is More to Economic Growth Than Numbers - LBS EBS – December 2017

16.          The More Things Change The More They Stay The Same - LBS EBS – November 2017

17.          Basking in the Afterglow of Reform - LBS EBS – October 2017

18.         Buhari Returns: Hope High and Challenges Daunting - LBS EBS - September 2017

19.          Nigerian’s Domestic Debt: A Ticking Time Bomb - LBS EBS – August 2017

20.        Nigeria: Is The Recovery For Real? - LBS EBS – July 2017

21.          Nigeria: Recovery Slow, Steady but Painful – LBS-EBS June 2017

22.         Nigerians May Escape from Anxiety with a Stronger Naira - LBS EBS - May 2017

23.         Naira Gains as the CBN Tries to Catch a Falling Knife - LBS EBS - April 2017

24.         Economic Reform by Coincidence - Does It Really Matter? - LBS EBS – March 2017

25.         Nigeria's Economic Reform - Resist Now and Regret Later - LBS EBS - Feb 2017

26.         2017: A Year of Fear Laced with Hope

27.         Running Faster to Stand Still – LBS EBS – Dec 2016

28.        Recovery Fades, Strong Regulator versus Efficient Markets – LBS EBS Nov 2016

29.         Nigeria Oil Shock 2.0 and the Treacherous Path to Recovery – LBS EBS Oct’16

30.        Recession: how deep and for how long? – LBS EBS Sep’16

31.          Policy Daunting, Markets Uncertain, Citizens Groan – LBS EBS – Aug 2016

32.         With Inflation at 16.5%,Nigeria Stumbles into the Reform Path-LBS EBS Jul 2016

33.         Sell in May and Go Away - LBS EBS - May 2016

34.         The Squandering of a Golden Economic Opportunity – LBS EBS Apr 2016

35.         Naira Weakness Undermines Economic Stability – LBS EBS – March 2016

36.         2016: The Year of Stark Economic Reality – LBS EBS – Feb 2016

37.         2016 - A Year of Growth and Commodity Turmoil – LBS EBS – Dec 2015

38.        Fantasy economics & the value of the Naira – LBS EBS – Nov 2015

39.         All the Presidents’ Men - Dream team or Lightweights – LBS EBS – Oct 2015

40.        Loot Recovery? Restitution is no Retribution - LBS EBS – Sep 2015

41.          Nigeria goes back to the Future : Market vs. Control Economy - LBS EBS - Aug 2015

42.         Buhari: Slow Start or Guessing Game – LBS EBS – July 2015

43.         Reflating a Strangulating Economy – LBS EBS – Jun 2015

44.         Leadership Change is not a System Change – LBS EBS April 2015

45.         Is the Naira Ever Going to Recover? – LBS EBS – March 2015

46.         Nigeria at Crossroads- Stability or Change, Which do You Prefer? -LBS EBS – Feb 2015

47.         The Falling Naira: Are you Prepared? - LBS EBS- Jan 2015

48.        Octobers can be eventful - LBS EBS – Nov 2014

49.         Inflation Up, Stock Market Down, What Next? - LBS EBS Sep 2014

50.         MUMU-NOMIKS vs. Economics – LBS EBS – Jun 2014

 

 

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