Proshare - Facebook Proshare - Twitter Proshare - Google+ Proshare - Linked In Proshare - RSS Feed

Nigeria’s Foreign Trade: Review and Implications

Proshare

Thursday, June 14, 2018 02:20PM /FDC 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s trade balance improved by 20.95% to N2.18trn ($7.14bn) in the first quarter of 2018, as the country recorded increases in both exports and imports. 

Imports into the country rose to N2.52trn ($8.2bn) in Q1, 19.22% higher than the previous quarter. This was primarily driven by a rise in other oil imports, which jumped 122.7% q-o-q to N846.31bn ($2.77bn). The effect of this increase was dampened by the decline recorded in other categories such as agricultural goods and solid minerals which dipped 5.87% and 17.27% respectively. Major suppliers of imports are China (21.1%), Netherlands (12.1%) and Belgium (10.6%).

 
Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.
 

Nigeria’s total exports rose by 20.02% to N4.69trn ($15.37bn) in Q1 2018. All of our export categories, except raw materials recorded ample growth during the quarter. Agricultural exports rose 63.8% to N73.24bn ($240m) with Cocoa- raw or fermented (40%), Sesame seeds (36%), and Cashew nuts (6.8%) as the top agricultural exports. Crude oil exports rose 10% to N3.58trn ($11.73bn), accounting for 76% of total export earnings (compared to 83% in Q4 2017). This can be attributed to the 9.48% increase in aver-age oil prices in Q1 and 1.5% rise in domestic oil production. 

The major markets for our exports include Netherlands (20.5%), India (18.2%) and Spain (8.3%).


 Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.
 

Implications 

Higher trade surplus is positive for exchange rate, terms of trade and current account balance. Increased in-flow is also the reason for the 19.2% accretion in the external re-serves recorded in Q1, giving the Central Bank more room to support the currency. Additionally, export revenue from oil ac-counts for two-thirds of the government’s revenue. Thus, this up-ward trend is positive for fiscal spending. It also means Nigeria would have less need for borrowing and debt financing. 

However, a trade surplus does not necessarily indicate economic strength. In fact, some of the strongest economies have the highest trade deficits. In March, the US recorded a trade deficit of $49bn, while the UK’s widened by 162% to £3.09bn ($4.15bn) 

Outlook 

In Nigeria’s case, the primary reason for the improvement in the balance of trade was higher oil prices and production. Thus, it follows that any shock to price or production would have a significant im-pact on fiscal revenue, and for-eign exchange. Oil prices are expected to stay strong in the short-term supported by geo-political tensions and supply concerns. This will keep ex-ports firm in Q2-Q3. Nigeria’s exports for the full year are projected at $61.3bn, a 33.84% increase from 2017 levels. 

On the flip side, higher oil prices would mean increased landing costs of refined petroleum products. This will push up Nigeria’s import bill. Additionally, the increased availability of forex will continue to support import demand. The effect of these will, however, be partially dampened by the expected decline in the global prices of agricultural imports, such as sugar. Imports are expected to total $45.2bn in 2018, 38.22% higher than 2017.

 
Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Related News 

1.       Nigeria’s Inflation Declines Again To 11.61% In May

2.      Headline Inflation Drops to 11.61% in May 2018; 0.87% Lower Than April 2018 Rate

3.      How to Solve Income Inequality in Nigeria

4.      Inflation Rate to Drop but New Pressure Emerging

5.      Headline inflation to decline further to 11.8% in May 2018

6.      Inflation Rate to Drop Further to 11.50% in May 2018

7.      Additional Expansionary Policies Required for Inclusive Growth

8.     Merchandise Trade in Both Directions Grew Significantly in Q1 2018

9.      Nigeria’s Financial System Strategy 2020 Plan “Our Dream”

10.  2018 Nigerian Economic Outlook: 3 Drivers to Watch -Doyin Salami

11.   Manufacturing PMI Stands at 56.5% in May 2018 from 56.9% in April 2018

12.  Structural Transformation and Jobless Growth in Nigeria

13.  Democracy Day: Taking Stock of Social Well-Being and Economic Freedom

14.  Nigeria’s GDP Per Head To fall For 8 Straight Years - IMF

15.   FAAC Disburses N638.09bn in April 2018 - NBS

16.  Q1 2018 GDP Figure: Still Miles Away From An Escape Velocity

17.   Nigeria’s GDP Grew in Real Terms by 1.95% in Q1 2018

READ MORE:
Related News