Wednesday, August 26, 2015 11:52AM /National Bureau of Statistics
Overview of GDP in Quarter Two 2015
In the Second Quarter of 2015, the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.35% (year-on-year) in real terms. This was lower by 1.61% points from growth recorded in the preceding quarter and also lowers by 4.19% points from growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014. Quarter on quarter, real GDP increased by 2.57%
During the quarter, aggregate GDP stood at N22,859,153.01 million (in nominal terms) at basic prices. Compared to the Second Quarter 2014 value of N21,734,829.86 million, nominal GDP was 5.17% higher. Nominal GDP growth was also higher relative to growth recorded in Q1 2015 by 0.85% points. The Nigerian economy can be more clearly understood according to the oil and non-oil sector classifications (Figure 1):
The Oil Sector
During the period under review, Oil production stood at 2.05 million barrels per day (mbpd) 5.9% lower from pro-duction in Q1 of 2015. Oil production was also lower relative to the corresponding quarter in 2014 by 7.3% when output was recorded at 2.21mbpd.
As a result, real growth of the oil sector slowed by 6.79% (year-on-year) in Q2 2015. This represents a decline relative to growth recorded in Q2 2014 (5.14% ). Growth was however relatively better by 1.35% points relative to growth in Q1 of 2015. Quarter-on-Quarter, growth also slowed by 3.82.
As a share of the economy, the Oil sector represented 9.80% of total real GDP, down from the shares recorded in the corresponding period of 2014 and the share in Q1 2015 by 0.96% points and 0.65% points respectively.
The Non-Oil Sector
Growth in the Non-oil sector was largely driven by the activities of Trade, Crop Production, Construction and Telecommunications. The non-oil sector grew by 3.46% in real terms in Q2 of 2015. This was 2.13% points lower from Q1 2015 and 3.26% points lower from the corresponding quarter in 2014 (Figure 3). In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 90.20% to the nation’s GDP, marginally higher from shares recorded in Q1 2015 (89.55%) and Q2 2014 (89.24%)
Major Economic Sectors: Q2 2015
Mining & Quarrying
The Mining and Quarrying sector comprises of four main activities which include Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals. On a nominal basis, the sector slowed in the Second quarter of 2015 growing by 33.30% (year on year) during the quarter.
This was substantially below growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014 where growth was recorded at 13.23%. Growth was however an improvement relative to Q1 2015 (-46.20%).
Growth was driven by developments in Crude Oil and Natural Gas which slowed by -33.68%. The sector contributed 7.75 % to overall GDP during Q2, 2015. lower than the share recorded in Q2 2014 (12.22 %), yet higher than its share in Q1 2015 (6.74 %).
In real terms, Mining and Quarrying sector sowed by 6.62% (year-on-year) in the Second Quarter of 2015 which indicated growth 11.94 percentage points lower than rates recorded in the Second Quarter of 2014, yet 1.29% points higher than growth rates estimate for Q1 2015.
The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in the Second Quarter of 2015 stands at 9.95 percent, showing that the sector’s share declined by 0.96% points relative to the corresponding quarter of 2014 and also declined by 0.67% points relative to Q1 2015.
Agriculture is made up of four sub-activities, namely: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. In nominal terms, the sector grew by 9.17% year-on-year. This was higher than growth rates recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014 and the First Quarter of 2015 by 2.50% points and 1.73% points respectively.
Growth in the sector was driven by output in Crop Production accounting for 83.89% of overall growth of the sector. Agriculture contributed 17.89% to nominal GDP during the quarter under review. This was marginally higher that shares recorded in the corresponding period of 2014 and Q1 of 2015 by 0.65% points and 0.12% points respectively.
Manufacturing consist of thirteen activities; Oil Refining, Cement, Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products, Electrical and Electronic, Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing.
Nominal GDP growth of Manufacturing in the Second of quarter, 2015 was estimated at 0.07 percent (year-on -year), 19.46 percentage points lower than the 19.54 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2014 as a result of higher operating costs. Growth was 1.17 percentage points less than the first quarter 2015 estimate.
On a Quarter-on-Quarter basis, the sector declined by 0.76 percent. The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP was 9.29 percent in the Second Quarter of 2015, lower than 9.77 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2014 and 10.17 per cent in the first quarter of 2015
In the Second quarter of 2015, Real GDP growth estimate of manufacturing sector equally went down by 17.83 percentage point to -3.82 percent (year-on-year), from 14.01 percent growth recorded in second Quarter of 2014.
This is 3.12 percentage points lower than the figure recorded in Quarter One, 2015, (Figure 6). On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector declined by 3.95 per cent, with oil refining having the highest negative growth rate, followed by food beverage and tobacco.
Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply
A Nominal growth of 4.22 percent was recorded in Second Quarter of 2015. This was 14.79 percentage points higher than the –10.57 percent growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014, and 11.2 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in the first quarter of 2015.
Quarter–on-Quarter, the sector grew by 2.04 percent. The contribution of Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply to Nominal GDP was 0.51percent in the second quarter of 2015. This is relatively the same contribution made in the corresponding quarter of 2014.
In real terms, the sector slowed by 11.61 percent in second Quarter of 2015, 8.96 percentage points lower than the corresponding period in 2014, and but higher than the first quarter 2015 rate, which stood at –27.92 percent.
Quarter-on-Quarter, the sector grew by 2.43 percent. The contribution of Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply to Real GDP was 0.36 percent in the Second quarter of 2015, which is marginally lower than the 0.42 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2014 , and roughly the same contribution in the first quarter of 2015.
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