Nigeria's GDP Grows by 2.11% in Q4'15; Lower by 0.73% from Growth Recorded in Q3'15

Proshare

Tuesday, March 08, 2016 05:35 PM / NBS   

Overview of GDP in Quarter Four 2015

In the Fourth Quarter of 2015, the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.11% (year-on-year) in real terms. This was lower by 0.73% points from growth recorded in the preceding quarter and also lower by 3.83% points from growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014. Quarter on quarter, real GDP increased by 3.10%

During the quarter, aggregate GDP stood at N25,930,469.41 million (in nominal terms) at basic prices. Compared to the Fourth Quarter 2014 value of N24,205,863.34 million, nominal GDP was 7.12% higher. Nominal GDP growth was also higher relative to growth recorded in Q3 of 2015 by 1.11% points. The Nigerian economy can be more clearly understood according to the oil and non-oil sector classifications (Figure 1)

 


The Oil Sector
During the period under review, Oil production stood at 2.16million barrels per day (mbpd) 0.3% lower from production in Q3 of 2015. Oil production was also lower relative to the corresponding quarter in 2014 by 1.0% when output was recorded at 2.19mbpd. (Figure2)




As a result, real growth of the oil sector slowed by 8.28% (year-on-year) in Q4 of 2015. This represents a decline relative to growth recorded in Q4 of 2014 recorded at 1.18% . Growth also declined by 9.33% points relative to growth in Q3 of 2015. Quarter-on-Quarter, growth also slowed by 19.10%.

As a share of the economy, the Oil sector contributed 8.06% of total real GDP, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2014 and in Q3 of 2015 by 0.91% points and 2.21% points respectively.

The Non-Oil Sector
Growth in the Non-oil sector was largely driven by the activities of Trade, Crop Production, and Information and Communication, Other Services and Real Estate. The non-oil sector grew by 3.14% in real terms in Q4 of 2015. This was 0.08% points higher from Q3 of 2015, yet 3.30% points lower from the corresponding quarter in 2014 (Figure 3). In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 91.94% to the nation’s GDP, higher from shares recorded in Q3 of 2015 (89.73%) and Q4 of 2014 (91.03%).



Major Economic Sectors: Q4 2015

Mining & Quarrying
Four main activities make up the Mining & Quarrying sector, they are Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals. On a nominal basis, the sector slowed in the fourth quarter of 2015 by 35.12% (year on year) during the quarter.

This was substantially below growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014 where growth was recorded at –17.16%. This drop is attributable to the falling oil prices. The sector contributed 5.18 % to overall GDP during the fourth quarter of 2015, lower than the contribution recorded in same quarter of 2014 at 8.56%, also lower than its contribution in the preceding quarter of 6.44%.

In real terms, Mining and Quarrying sector slowed at -8.05% (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2015 which indicated a growth 9.41% points lower than rates recorded in the fourth quarter of 2014, also 9.18% points lower than growth rate in third quarter of 2015.

The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at 8.21%, showing that the sector’s contribution declined by 0.91% points relative to the corresponding quarter of 2014 and also declined by 2.19% points relative to the third quarter of 2015.



Agriculture
Agriculture is made up of four sub-activities, namely: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. In nominal terms, the sector grew by 9.50% year-on-year. This was higher than growth rates recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014 and the third quarter of 2015 by 3.22% points and 0.16% points respectively. Growth in the sector was driven by output in Crop Production accounting for 87.01% of overall growth of the sector.

Agriculture contributed 22.56% to nominal GDP during the quarter under review. This was marginally higher than shares recorded in the corresponding period of 2014 yet lower than the third quarter of 2015 by 0.49% points and 1.95% points respectively.




Real agricultural GDP growth in the Fourth Quarter of 2015 stood at 3.48% (year-on-year), a decrease of 0.17% points from the corresponding period of 2014. Growth in the Fourth Quarter was 0.02% points higher from the Third Quarter of 2015.

While positive, growth in agricultural output has been relatively lower compared to the corresponding period of 2014 as a result of lower crop output which in turn was as a result of security challenges during the quarter.

The contribution of Agriculture to overall GDP in real terms was 24.18% in the Fourth Quarter of 2015, marginally higher from its share in the corresponding quarter of 2014, and lower from the Third Quarter of this year by 2.61% points.

Manufacturing
There are thirteen activities in the Manufacturing sector; Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products; Electrical and Electronic, Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing.

Nominal GDP growth of Manufacturing in the Fourth Quarter of 2015 was recorded at 6.93% (year-on-year), 12.19% points lower than the 19.12% recorded in the corresponding period of 2014 partly as a result of higher operating costs.

Growth was 2.13% points higher than the Third Quarter 2015 recorded at 4.80%. On a Quarter-on-Quarter basis, the sector grew by 0.33%. Contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP was 9.09% in the fourth quarter of 2015, lower than the 9.11% recorded in the corresponding period of 2014, and 9.67% in the third quarter of 2015

In the Fourth Quarter of 2015, Real GDP growth of the manufacturing sector slowed by 13.09% points to 0.38% (year-on-year) from 13.47% growth recorded in fourth Quarter of 2014. Growth was however 2.13% points higher than rates recorded in the Third Quarter of 2015, (Figure 6). On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector slowed on the margin by -0.03%, with oil refining and Motor vehicle and Assembly weighing on the sector Manufacturing.




Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply
This sector recorded a nominal year on year growth of 2.43% in the fourth quarter of 2015. This was 28.63% points lower than the 31.06% growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014, and 1.02% points lower than the growth rate of 3.46% recorded in the Third Quarter of 2015. Quarter–on-Quarter, the sector grew by 51.57%.

The contribution of Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply to Nominal GDP was 0.71% in the Fourth Quarter of 2015 lower marginally when compared to the contribution made in the corresponding quarter of 2014 recorded at 0.74%.

In real terms, the sector grew by 1.20% in the Fourth Quarter of 2015, 1.61% points lower than the corresponding period in 2014, and lower than the Third Quarter 2015 growth rate, which stood at 2.14%.

Quarter-on-Quarter, the sector grew by 51.67%. The contribution of Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply to real GDP was 0.51% in the fourth quarter of 2015, roughly unchanged from the Fourth Quarter of 2014 , and slightly higher than the contribution of 0.34% in the Third Quarter of 2015.



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