Friday, May 20, 2016 4:30PM/ NBS
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Overview of GDP in Quarter One 2016
In the First Quarter of 2016, the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed by -0.36% (year-on-year) in real terms. This was lower by 2.47% points from growth recorded in the preceding quarter and also lower by 4.32% points from growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2015. Quarter on quarter, real GDP slowed by 13.71%
During the quarter, aggregate GDP stood at N 22,262,575.97 million (in nominal terms) at basic prices. Compared to the First Quarter 2015 value of N21,041,701.10 million, nominal GDP was 5.80% higher. Nominal GDP growth was however lower relative to levels recorded in Q4 of 2015 by 14.15% points. The Nigerian economy could be better understood according to the oil and non-oil sector classifications (Figure 1):
The Oil Sector
In the First Quarter of 2016, Oil production stood at 2.11million barrels per day (mbpd) 0.05mbpd lower from production in Q4 of 2015. Oil production was also lower relative to the corresponding quarter in 2015 by 0.07mbpd when output was recorded at 2.18mbpd.
As a result, real growth of the oil sector slowed by 1.89% (year-on-year) in Q1 of 2016. This represents an improve-ment relative to growth recorded in Q1 2015 when growth slowed by 8.15% . Growth also increased by 6.39% points relative to growth in Q4 of 2015. Quarter-on- Quarter, growth also improved by 10.27%.
As a share of the economy, the Oil sector contributed 10.29% of total real GDP, marginally lower from the share recorded in the corresponding period of 2015, yet higher from the share in Q4 of 2015 by 2.24% points.
The Non-Oil Sector
While activities such as Crop production, Trade and Telecommunications & Information Services sup-ported growth of the sector, growth was weighed upon by declines in Manufacturing, Financial Institutions, and Real Estate. The sector slowed 0.18% in real terms in Q1 of 2016.
This was 5.77% points lower from the corresponding quarter in 2014 (Figure 3) and 3.32% points from the previous quarter . In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 89.71% to the nation’s GDP, marginally higher from shares recorded in Q1 of 2016 (89.55) yet lower from and Q4 2015 (91.94%).
Major Economic Sectors:Q1 2016
Mining & Quarrying
Four main activities make up the Mining & Quarrying sector, they are Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals.
On a nominal basis, the sector slowed by 34.98% (year-on-year) during Q1 2016. This was 11.22% points higher from growth recorded in Q1 2015, and marginally higher from growth recorded in the previous quarter. The decline in year-on-year growth is attributable to the falling oil prices. The sector contributed 4.14 % to overall GDP in Q1 2016, lower than the contribution recorded in same quarter of 2015 and the preceding quarter by 2.60% points and 1.04% points respectively.
In real terms, Mining and Quarrying sector slowed at 2.96% (year-on-year) in Q1 2016, a relative improvement from Q1 2015 by 4.94% points and Q4 2015 by 5.08% points. While Crude Oil output weighted on growth, the sector was supported by a substantial improvement in output in Metal Ores. The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in Q1 2016 was 10.34%, marginally lower relative to the corresponding quarter of 2015 yet higher from the previous quarter by 2.13% points.
Agriculture is made up of four sub-activities, namely: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing.
In nominal terms, the sector grew by 14.15% year-on-year in Q1 2016. This was higher than growth rates recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2015 and the Q4 2015 by 6.71% points and 4.65% points respectively. Growth in the sector was driven by output in Crop Production accounting for 83.67% of overall growth of the sector.
Agriculture contributed 19.17% to nominal GDP during the quarter under review. This was higher than shares recorded in the corresponding period of 2015 by 1.40% points yet lower than the contribution in Q4 2015 by 3.39% points.
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