Nigeria Oil Shock 2.0 and the Treacherous Path to Recovery

Proshare

Friday, October 7, 2016 6:02am /fdc 

After a sharp and rapid deterioration in the economy, policy makers have finally braced up for a robust recovery that calls for a honest understanding of the problem.  The great news is that the CBN and the DMO have started lowering T/Bill rates in a coordinated manner. 

This is expected to catalyse the fiscal stimulus package and jumpstart economic growth.  The restoration of oil production from Forcados and Qua Iboe terminal could quicken the recovery period from 24 to 18 months assuming no further surprises.

In spite of the good news, the path to recovery is just as treacherous as the route to decay.  In this edition of the LBS Breakfast Session, Bismarck Rewane explains why the market value of the Naira (N473/$) is sharply at variance with the true economic value of N302/$.  He goes further to project that the Naira will appreciate in the near term and says why this is likely to happen.

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