Nigeria: Beyond Rebasing - An Argument for Inclusive Growth

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Tuesday, May 6, 2014 2:54 PM / DLM Research

The need for GDP Rebasing.
Whilst most countries rebase periodically to reflect changes, particularly in production and consumption patterns, Nigeria had not rebased her national account estimates in about twenty- three years. Therefore, the calculation of the Nations real GDP which was previously based on 1990 prices has now been revised upwards to 2010 thereby taking into account new sectors of the economy that have emerged over the period whilst also incorporating changes in patterns and classification of sectors, sub-sectors and their regrouping due to the adoption of the latest System of National Accounts (SNA) of the United Nations.

Final GDP rebasing estimates expected by June 2014.
The classification of GDP by economic activity has been expanded to 46, up from 33 previously reported. New activities covered under the new economic reporting classification include: administrative and support services; motion pictures, sound recording and music production; publishing; arts, entertainment and recreation; and professional scientific and technical services. The preliminary estimates of Nigeria
s rebased National Accounts Series were released on the 6th of April 2014 with final estimates expected to be released in June 2014.

Nigeria currently ranks as the largest economy in Africa.
Upon the completion of the rebasing exercise, GDP figures recorded a leap of c.89%, increasing to c.$509.97billion (~N80.22trillion) from c.$272.21billion (~N42.40trillion) and an improvement in GDP Per Capita to c.$2,688 from c.$1,554 (fig.1&2). The rebased GDP figures currently ranks Nigeria as the 27th largest economy in the world and the largest in Africa surpassing South Africa with a nominal GDP of c.US$384.31 billion as at 2012.

Over the last few years, the growth in domestic output has been driven mainly by the non-oil sector. As at 2012, the industrial sector was the highest contributor to GDP with 41%. However, the post-rebasing numbers indicate that the Services sector ranked as the leading contributor to GDP with a contribution of 51% in 2012 followed by agriculture (22%), mining and construction (20%) and manufacturing (7%). (fig.3)

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