Nigeria’s Real GDP Records 6.23% Growth in Q3’14; Higher Than Q3’13 Growth Rate

Proshare

November 17, 2014 / 12.37pm /National Bureau of Statistics

 

Overview of GDP in Quarter 3 2014

On an aggregate basis, the economy when measured by the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew by 6.23 percent (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2014, higher by 1.06 percentage points from rates recorded in the Third quarter of 2013, and lower by 0.31 percentage points from the Second Quarter of 2014.Relative to the Second Quarter of 2014, the economy grew by 8.67 percent in the Third Quarter.

 

The nominal GDP at basic prices for the Third Quarter of 2014 was estimated at N22,933,144.01 million, up 12.06 percent from N20,464,395.99 million estimated for the corresponding quarter of 2013 and 5.51 percent from N21,734,829.86 million recorded in the second quarter of 2014. The economy can be broadly classified into two output sectors: Oil and Non-oil sectors: 

 

The Oil Sector

The oil sector experienced production challenges. The average daily production of crude oil in the Third Quarter of 2014 was recorded at 2.15 million barrels per day (mbpd), a decrease from 2.26 mbpd recorded in the Third Quarter of 2013 and 2.21 mbpd recorded in Second Quarter of the year  2014.

 

The Non-oil Sector

The non-oil sector growth was driven by growth in activities recorded in the Crop Production, Textile, Apparel and Footwear; Telecommunications, and Real Estate sectors.

 

In the third quarter of 2014, the non-oil sector recorded 7.51 percent growth in real terms, lower compared to 8.46 percent at the corresponding period in 2013, yet higher than 6.71 percent in the second quarter of 2014 as indicated in Figure 3.

  

Major Economic Sectors: Q3 2014

Agriculture

Agriculture comprises of four activities; Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. In nominal terms, GDP of the Agricultural sector grew by 9.19 percent (Year-on-Year) in the Third Quarter of 2014, up by 2.72 percentage points from Third Quarter of 2013 and 2.52 percentage points from the previous quarter of 2014.

 

Within the Sector, Fishing grew the fastest by 18.76 percent, followed by Livestock at 12.36 percent. Quarter-on-Quarter, the sector grew by 45.54 percent in the Third Quarter, with Crop Production and livestock growing the fastest by 52.83 percent and 5.05 percent respectively. The contribution of agriculture to Nominal GDP stood at 23.77 percent in the Third Quarter of 2014.

 

Real agricultural GDP growth in the Third Quarter of 2014 stood at 4.47 percent (year-on-year) up by 1.03 percentage points from the corresponding period of 2013 and also higher by 0.79 percentage points from the rate recorded during the Second Quarter of 2014. Crop production was the main driver of growth the Third Quarter of 2014 by 4.34 percent. Quarter-on-quarter, the sector grew by 38.53 percent in the Third Quarter of 2014. Again Crop Production was the main driver of growth by 43.50 percent. The contribution of Agriculture to GDP in real terms was 26.63 percent in Third Quarter of 2014, compared to 27.08 percent in the Third Quarter of 2013 and 20.89 percent in the Second Quarter of 2014.

 

Mining and Quarrying

The sector consists of four activities; Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals.

 

In nominal terms, the sector recorded a negative growth of 14.68 percent (year-on-year) in the Third Quarter of 2014, 3.58 percentage points lower than the growth in the corresponding quarter of 2013 and 27.90 percentage points higher from growth recorded in the Second Quarter of 2014. Coal Mining and Metal ores were the fastest growing during the period growing by 27.87 percent and 25.30 percent respectively.

 

Quarter on Quarter, the Sector slowed by 11.45 percent, with Quarrying and Other minerals and Crude Petroleum and Natural leading the growth by 12.31% and -11.58% respectively. The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to the Nominal GDP in the third quarter of 2014 was recorded at 10.26%.

 

In real terms, the sector grew by –3.43 percent (year-on-year) in the Third Quarter of 2014, 11.04 percentage points higher from rates recorded in the Third Quarter of 2013, yet 8.75 percentage points lower from growth recorded in the Second Quarter of 2014. During the Third Quarter, the negative growth recorded was as a result of the decline in crude oil production and the international oil prices. The Crude Oil and Natural Gas sector was the major driver of growth in the sector, growing by –3.60 percent.

Quarter-on-quarter, the sector grew by 5.44 percent. Again, Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the Major driver of growth during the quarter growing by 5.47 percent. The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to the Real GDP in the Third quarter of 2014 was10.58%, compared to 11.64 percent recorded in the Third Quarter of 2013 and 10.90 percent recorded in the Second Quarter of 2014.

 

Manufacturing

Manufacturing consist of thirteen activities; Oil Refining, Cement, Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products, Electrical and Electronic, Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing.

 

Nominal growth was 21.58 percent (year-on-year) in Third Quarter of 2014, 4.74 percentage points lower compared to corresponding period of 2013, but 2.05 percentage points higher from rates recorded in Second Quarter of 2014. The fastest growing activities were Non-Metallic Products, and Chemical and Pharmaceutical Products growing by 44.43 percent and 44.22 Percent respectively.

 

Quarter-on-Quarter, the sector grew by 5.65 percent with Oil refining and Other manufacturing growing the fastest by 14.96 percent and 7.0 percent respectively. The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP was 9.78 percent in the Third Quarter of 2014, up from 9.01 percent recorded in the third quarter of 2013 and 9.77 percent in the second quarter of 2014.

 

During the Third Quarter of 2014, Real GDP growth in the sector was recorded as 16.00 percent (year-on-year), down 2.95 percentage points from growth recorded in Third Quarter of 2013, yet up 1.98 percentage points from growth recorded in the Second Quarter of 2014. Textile, Apparel and Footwear drove growth of the Sector increasing by 30.22. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector grew by 5.15 percent with Food, Beverages and Tobacco driving growth and growing by 6.30%.

The contribution of Manufacturing to Real GDP was 9.83 percent in the Third Quarter of 2014, up from 9.01 percent in the Third Quarter of 2013, but lower than 10.16 percent in the Second Quarter of 2014.

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