Nigeria’s PMI Moves Lower for the Second Consecutive Month – Expect Lower Q1 GDP Growth

Proshare

 

Monday, March 07, 2016 6:19 PM / Cordros Capital   

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), last week, released its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Report for February, 2016.   

The report captures the PMI for both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Both sector PMIs dropped sharply to 45.5 (previously 47.2) and 44.3 (previously 46.9) respectively, for the second consecutive month.  

It is worthy of note that the below 50 PMI results recorded year-to-date suggest that economic activities have generally slowed down since December 2015 (where 51.2 and 53.4 manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs were recorded). This, in our view, is a pointer to a slower GDP growth in the first quarter of this year.   

It is also in line with the view already hinted by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the January 2016 meeting that  -- "growth in Q1-2016 is expected to be less robust than in the corresponding period of 2015 (Q1 GDP of 3.96%)" -- and therefore adds to pressure on the Committee to provide further decisive policy support at this month's meeting.   

Kindly Download the report.   

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