Nigeria Economy | |
Nigeria Economy | |
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Monday, October 05, 2020 /05:20
AM / by Proshare Research / Header Image Credit: EcoGraphics
Taking
a cue from the arguments between the CBN and NESG on the direction of the
Nigerian economy, it appears clear that in the last five years, Nigeria's
economy has bobbed and weaved between recession and modest growth as a result
of external economic shocks from falling crude oil prices (in 2016) and a
global health pandemic (Q1 2020) riding atop a trade tussle between Saudi
Arabia and Russia for increased global oil market share in Q1 2020.
Tumbling
oil prices and economic shutdowns mainly in Q1 and Q2 2020 has led to negative
GDP growth rates in several countries around the world. The decline in global
economic activities has resulted in higher unemployment rates, rising business
and individual bankruptcies, and major disruptions to global business supply
chains. To pull through the difficult times both monetary and fiscal
authorities across the globe have resorted to unconventional economic policies
including quantitative easing (QE) mixed with
targeted fiscal interventions. In the case of Nigeria, more recently the
federal government (and a few states) have hiked retail tax rates and removed
subsidies on petrol and energy plum in the middle of a recession, this is, of
course, counterintuitive, and contrary to the policies in other global
economies, but at a time of COVID-19 who knows what works?
Indeed,
markets may look a bit drunken in a coronavirus environment with monetary and
fiscal policies and their consequences pivoting to surprising directions, but
certain basic principles remain (even though the economist's Philips Curve which shows the
relationship between Inflation and unemployment seems to have disappeared).
To
push GDP upwards countries have ha to expand fiscal policy (in true Keynesian
fashion) and allowed for monetary easing which has seen interest rates fall as
unemployment rates dipped at differential rates across American, Asian and
European economies. Indeed macroeconomic consequences of expansionary fiscal and
monetary policies differed across Africa too.
In Nigeria, the Central Bank has had a grand time of intervening
massively in economic stimulation through a pile of intervention funds. It may
be too early to say how effective these interventions have been but with rising
inflation (+13.22% in August up from +12.82% in July 2020), GDP growing at -6.10% in Q2 2020, and unemployment at +27.1% at the end of the first half of the year,
analysts are irritable about the success of what Proshare in its Coronanomics Report released in May
2020 on page 4 called "fiscmon", a contemporary economic
management arrangement that breaks the distinction between monetary and fiscal
policy and allows the monetary authority to dominate economic coordination
between traditional fiscal and monetary policy. The report stated that fiscmon
"represents an integrated approach that sees monetary and fiscal management
tied into a forward plan of action to achieve clearly stated objectives within
a specified time frame".
CBN's Economy Nudge
The Nigerian Central Bank jumped in early to head off a possible severe
recession in 2020 as a result of falling international oil prices, dwindling
fiscal revenues, and supply chain shock caused by the economic disruptions
accompanying the global coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) that had started to
hurt local businesses. The CBN's interventions were important but the jury is
still out on its impact.
The numbers published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on
leading macroeconomic indices for the country between January and June 2020
remain unflattering. The CBN has said that things could have been worse without
its intervention but this is as good as saying that a man that drowned in a
swimming pool was a lot better than one that drowned in the Pacific ocean,
after all, there are no sharks in a swimming pool!
However, dead men do not care where they drown they simply stay dead.
The principle point is that the CBN's policies need to show evidence of
effectiveness to drive up the confidence and trust deficit plaguing the private
sector. The intervention programmes of the regulator have been laudable but
reticent in pushing the needle of growth and development within the pandemic.
Some analysts point to the relatively softer impact of COVID-19 on the domestic
economy relative to the more severe outcomes for economies such as South
Africa. They argue that Nigeria's economy was still gasping for life at a time
others were in a coma and not much of the private sector activities were
reflective of a nudge by CBN intervention policies in Q1 and Q2 2020 (micro and
small enterprises (MSMEs) were stooped in a gully as demand petered and
domestic supply chains broke down).
Economists argue that at the time a full lockdown was imposed on the
country by the federal government in H1 2020, only Lagos, Abuja FCT, and Ogun
State were majorly affected, as other parts of the country carried on business
as usual right up to the end of March. The restrictions in interstate travel
merely prevented the ease of physical movement of persons but circumnavigated
agricultural produce and other essential manufacturing inputs that still got to
their points of need during the period.
Economic analysts have observed that the CBN's intervention programmes
commenced well before the emergence of COVID-19 in Q1 2020 and that programmes
like the agricultural sector anchor borrowers programme (ABP) are yet to
produce the agricultural bang for the policy buck. A similar tale of tottering
performance would be true for other interventions in aviation, manufacturing,
and entertainment. Recent media reports on the local agricultural
sector have noted that the anchor borrowers loans (estimated at N240bn) have
been difficult to recover as beneficiaries of the loans claimed that they
thought the loans were government grants to ease the financial burdens of the
coronavirus pandemic. The convenient misdemeanour was expected and slightly
comical. The ABP has been peppered with problems that would have been better
handled at the level of bank retail project management than as a pet scheme of
a banking sector regulator.
The problems associated with the ABP include, but are not limited to,
the following;
The Other Parts of Lending
CBN's intervention in other sectors of the economy has been no less
distressing. The aviation sector fund has not provided a robust boost to the
sector and with the coming of COVID-19 and its disruption to air travel, the
sector is in pre-terminal agony. Virtually all domestic airlines and their
ground handling companies are struggling for breath. Even the strongest of the
local airlines, Air Peace, had to sack 69 pilots in August 2020. As a further
measure to guarantee the company's continued operations, the company had
salaries of 3000 workers cut by 40 percent. As of August 2017, the CBN
had disbursed N277.4bn under its N300bn power and aviation intervention fund
(PAIF). The outcome of the fund disbursement has been mixed but represents a
much better performance than the agriculture sector.
The PAIF fund was disbursed between September 2016 and June 2017 with
N106.13bn repaid within the period. The money was disbursed as loans across 16
airline projects and 43 power projects.
Kicking The Can Forward
On March 15 2020 the CBN announced some important market intervention
programmes designed to keep the economy ticking and preventing a sizable loss
of local jobs. Among the measures taken by the Bank at the end of Q1 2020
included:
These measures were desirable at heart but failed the tests of potency,
clarity, and coherence. The CBN appears to have taken on an elephant-sized job
of trying to stimulate the domestic economy without pushing the inflation
button, but like all elephants, handling the pachyderm's size is a hefty
matter.
Proshare adopted a multiple regression
approach to understanding the relationship between unemployment and inflation.
The result was similar to earlier studies which showed that Nigeria does not
appear to have a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, or the so-called
economist's Phillips curve does not exist for the country. So how should the
CBN respond to a phantom curve? The Phillips curve says that if government
policy allows for expansion in money supply (or the use of the CBN's monetary
handlebars), the national output would grow but with an accompanying
inflationary effect. This outcome was the fast and dirty
conclusion of British Economist A.W. Phillips. However, the perspective of an
inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation no longer appears to
hold. Therefore, expecting to fix CBN policy within this framework may be
inappropriate, meaning that some aspects of the NESG perspectives could be
misleading.
The CBN has tried to reduce unemployment by expanding credit with
minimal inflationary consequences. According to the Proshare augmented Phillips
curve regression model a one percent rise in the unemployment rate would lead
to a 0.47% increase in inflation. If the Phillips curve assumption holds a rise
in unemployment should result in a fall rather than a rise in
inflation (see Proshares single-step Linear
Regression Model in appendix).
This counterintuitive result based on contemporary data (Q1 2010-Q2
2020) makes policy choices difficult. Since credit expansion would not increase
inflation should the CBN continue to prime the pump and expand the money supply
to create growth, output, and employment? But come to think of it, without a
Phillips curve relationship an increase in credit does not reduce unemployment
but increases it, so should the CBN cut credit to increase employment?
Both the CBN and NESG appear to agree on the existence of a domestic
short-run Phillips curve and they equally agree that credit expansion could
lead to a growth in output and employment, but regression analysis suggests
they are both wrong.
The traditional macroeconomic theory says that a slump in GDP
accompanied by a large budget deficit would lead to the CBN raising interest
rates to shore up the exchange rate and counter the potential inflationary
impact of fiscal spending. If the CBN accommodates the fiscal deficit interest
rates would fall as the exchange rate rises and output and employment may or
may not increase with a lot resting on the uncertain impact of the rising
exchange rate on domestic input costs (see
illustration 1).
Illustration 1: Playing The Imaginary Phillips Curve
Game Badly
Double Whammies
Two solid punches to the jaw could knock down anybody, including an
economy. The double whammy of a health pandemic combined with a drop in oil
prices for a major oil-producing economy could lay the economy on the canvass,
Nigeria has experienced that dizzyness as inflation spiraled to +13.22% in August 2020 as unemployment banked at +27.1% in Q2 2020. The hard blows of rising
inflation and escalating unemployment made mincemeat of the macroeconomic
framework used by economists to interpret the economy and its policy tradeoffs.
Both the CBN and the NESG (even if through a marriage of convenience)
would need to sit down and work through the dynamics of how the Nigerian
economy works to fashion out policies that enable a non-accelerated inflationary
rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Or given that studies (including that of Proshare)
suggest that there is no trade-off between domestic inflation and unemployment,
the two organizations would have to come up with policies that allow for the
reduction in inflation and unemployment simultaneously. From the worst of both
worlds, the economy needs to move towards the best of both worlds, the policy
algorithms may be difficult but not impossible.
A second twin punch has been the combination of international oil price
collapse (which has driven a pole into the heart of the government 2020 fiscal
arithmetic) and the debilitating consequences of a viral global health pandemic
or COVID-19. The potential outcomes of the different scenarios of the pace of
recovery from the pandemic and the upward (or downward) correction of oil
prices leave the world in a pool of uncertainty (see
illustrative scenario matrix below).
Illustration 2: COVID-19/Oil Price Scenarios, Playing
uncomfortable Tradeoffs
With a renewed wave of the COVID-19 pandemic threatening a second
shutdown of the European and United States economies, the consequences for
frontier economies like Nigeria may be severe. Analysts have noted that several
states in the country have opened up their economies for business and
socioeconomic activities with interstate travel in full swing creating a
potential for a larger spread of COVID-19 at the communal level across the
country. The potential outcomes could range from a worsening spread of poverty
to the escalation of corporate bankruptcies and job losses (see illustration 3).
Illustration 3: Coping With A
Contagion, the Stubborn Side of A Virus
Downloadable Versions of NESG v CBN Report (PDF)
Related News post on NESG v
CBN: Beyond the Battleground Report
1.
NESG
v CBN: Beyond the Battleground - The Need for Facts, Perspective and Resolution
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199. CBN Issues Draft Regulatory and Supervision Guidelines for Development Finance Institutions - Aug 05, 2014
200. CBN Releases Exposure Draft for Recommendation of Time Bar on Consumer Complaints - Jul 25, 2014
201. CBN Extends Timeline for the Resolution of Complaints on Excess Charges and Loans to 30 Days -03, 2014
202. CBN Prohibits Loan Defaulters from Further Access to Credit Facilities in the Banking System - Jul 02, 2014
203. CBN rolls out Cash-Less Policy on July 1, 2014, postpones withdrawal charges in 30 States - Jun 24, 2015
204. CBN Orders Banks to Refund Monies to Customers Shortchanged By ATMs - Jun 16, 2014
205. CBN Orders Banks to Refund Excess Commission on Turnover - Jun 13, 2014
206. CBN Maintains Highest Level in Information Security Standard (ISO27001) Compliance - Jun 12, 2014
207. CBN Extends Cashless Policy to 30 Remaining States; Kicks Off July 1st - Jun 05, 2014
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