| Nigeria Economy |    1518 VIEWS  |
| Nigeria Economy | |
| 1518 VIEWS | |
 |
Friday, November 13, 2020 / 11:15 AM /
by NBS / Header Image Credit: Premium Times
Background
In
April 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with support from the
World Bank, launched the COVID19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS); a
monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,950 households to
monitor the socioeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other shocks. The
first round (baseline) of the survey was conducted in April/May 2020, during
which a federally mandated lockdown was in full effect.
The
fifth round was conducted between September 7-21, 2020. The most important
innovation in the fifth round was to collect employment information from up to
six working age individuals (15-64 years) in the household rather than just the
main respondent, allowing for more detailed individual-level analysis of
people's working situation.
In
particular, these new data make it possible to (1) verify the trends from
previous rounds that were based only on one respondent, (2) report statistics
on overall working situation and unemployment, and (3) look at differences in
labor market characteristics according to key individual characteristics
including gender and education.
In
principle, the interviewers sought to speak directly with each working-age
individual in the household, but in practice, information was collected by
proxy - through the main respondent in the household - in 61% of cases. This
brief presents the findings from the fifth round of the Nigeria COVID-19 NLPS,
focusing in particular on people's working situation to exploit these
innovations to the questionnaire.
Summary
Overall Working Situation of Survey Respondents
Every
round of the NLPS collects the majority of information from a single respondent
in each household, including working status. The working status of the main
survey respondent has been captured in every round so the NLPS provides an
indication of how the working status of respondents has changed since the start
of the COVID-19 crisis. In September 2020, the share of survey respondents who
are working stabilized at 85%, close to the pre-COVID level.
The
recovery among survey respondents has reached the prepandemic levels in rural
areas (87%), where the changes observed since June may be partially explained
by the normal cycles in agriculture. In contrast, the share of working
respondents in urban areas has recovered at a slower pace and has not yet
reached the pre-COVID levels.
Overall Working Situation of All Working Age Adults
In
Round 5 of the NLPS, an additional effort was made to collect working status
information for all working age adults (those aged 15 to 64 years) rather than
just a single respondent in each household. Collecting information for all working-age
adults provides a more holistic and representative snapshot of overall
employment in Nigeria. The main survey respondents tend to differ in important
ways from the overall population of working-age adults (survey respondents are
predominantly male and generally older), and thus may not fully reflect the
employment situation for the working-age population as a whole.
The
overall share of Nigerians who are working remains slightly lower than before
the COVID-19 crisis. Around 71% of the working-age population were working in
September 2020 compared with 77% of the working-age population prior to the
crisis, in July/ August 2018 when the post-planting round of the 2018/19
General Household Survey-Panel (GHS-Panel) was fielded. This differs from the
findings that emerge when, as in previous rounds of the NLPS, the analysis
focused only on the main respondent in each household (see above). This, in
turn, underlines the importance of making additional efforts to capture
information on multiple individuals in a household who may not be fully
represented in a survey consisting only of one household respondent,
particularly women and young adults.
The
reduction in the share of people who are working largely appears to have arisen
in rural areas. In urban areas, the share of people working moved from 68%
before the crisis to 66% in September 2020. However, in rural areas, the share
of people working dropped from 81% to 74% over the same period.
The
overall share of the working-age population temporarily absent from work is
higher than before the crisis, but the shares that are unemployed is slightly
lower. Prior to the crisis, just 2% of the working-age population were
temporarily absent from work - meaning that the individual did not work in the
last 7 days but had a job to which they would return - but by September 2020,
this share had risen to 7%. This may reflect the fact that some jobs have been
interrupted, but only temporarily so, by economic disruptions related to the
COVID-19 crisis.
However,
the share of the working age population who were unemployed, which covers those
not working but actively looking for work, was 9% before the crisis and 7% in
September 2020. In turn, this means that the unemployment rate - the share of
the economically active (excluding own-use production workers) who were
unemployed - was 13% before the crisis and 9% in September 2020. Individuals
may not be able to 'afford' to be openly unemployed for long periods during the
COVID-19 crisis, because household incomes are reduced, consumption is low, and
taking the time to search for a job is untenable.
The
overall share of working Nigerians engaged in commerce increased between
July/August 2018 and September 2020 while the share working in other service
activities and industry decreased; the share working in agriculture remained
fairly constant. Before the crisis, around 18% of workers were engaged in
commerce, but this share rose to 26% by September 2020. Meanwhile, the share of
working individuals engaged in industry and services fell from 8% to 4% and
from 23% to 20% respectively. The share of workers engaged in agriculture
remained fairly constant at around 48%.
Working
Nigerians are now somewhat more likely to engage in family business activities
compared with the pre-crisis period. In July/August 2018, around 40% of working
individuals were engaged in family businesses compared with 44% in September
2020. The shift to family business is accompanied by a reduction in the share
of individuals engaged in family farming (or livestock rearing or fishing)
activities, providing evidence that there has not been a significant swing
towards engaging in agriculture as the crisis has advanced.
Gender and Employment Status
The
share of women who were working dropped more than the share of men who were
working between the pre-crisis period and September 2020, suggesting that the
COVID-19 crisis may be entrenching gender inequality in the labor market. In
July/August 2018, 82% of working-age men and 72% of working-age women were
working, but these shares dropped to 78% and 65% respectively by September
2020. With women spending disproportionately more time out of work, the COVID19
crisis may 'scar' their future labor market prospects, implying longer term
impacts on their welfare.
Considering
employment transitions further suggests that the crisis may be widening gender
inequality in the labor market, which may have long term impacts on women's
working situation. Looking at a panel of individuals who were interviewed
during both the post-planting round of the 2018/19 GHS-Panel and Round 5 of the
NLPS, it is possible to examine how women and men switched between different
labor market statuses. Focusing on the sample of individuals who were working
before the crisis, it emerges that women were relatively less likely to remain
working in September 2020, and more likely to transition to various non-working
states than men, particularly to the inactive status. Indeed, among those who
were working before the crisis, almost double the share of women compared to
the share of men (13% versus 7%) were economically inactive by September 2020.
Breaking
down the sectors of work by gender, it appears that much of the shift towards
commerce has been driven by working women, and especially those with low levels
of education. In July/August 2018, around 23% of all working women were engaged
in commerce, but that proportion had risen to 42% by September 2020. While
these changes mainly appear to come from a decline in the share of working
women in services and industry, there was also a slight decline in the share of
working women participating in agriculture.
The
share of working women engaged in commerce rose across all educational groups,
although the increase was especially pronounced among those with low levels of
education: amongst working women with no education, primary education,
secondary education, and tertiary education the shares engaged in commerce
increased by 22 percentage points, 13 percentage points, 14 percentage points,
and 6 percentage points respectively.
Distributional Impacts Of The Crisis
Individuals
from across the consumption distribution have been affected by the crisis but
the reduction in the share of people working was largest for the poorest
consumption quintile. Among working-age individuals in households in the lowest
consumption quintile, the share working dropped from 79% prior to the COVID19
crisis to 70% in September 2020. This relatively large drop has potentially
serious implications for the depth of poverty in Nigeria, as households that
were already poor before COVID-19 may be pushed further below the poverty line.
The
shift of workers into commerce has been most pronounced for those in the lower
quintiles of the consumption distribution. Taking the bottom-40 percent of the
consumption distribution together, the share of workers engaged in commerce
rose from 16% to 28%. This resonates with the finding that women with low
levels of education have been the main drivers of the increased share of
workers in commerce, as education and monetary consumption are highly
correlated. Among the bottom-40, the share working in other types of services
fell from 21% to 15%, while the meagre share engaged in industry fell further
from 4% to 2%.
Even
though the overall share of working Nigerians engaged in agriculture has
remained fairly constant, it appears that richer Nigerians - and those with
higher levels of education - have switched into agriculture during the COVID-19
crisis. In the top quintile, the share of working individuals who were engaged
in agriculture increased from 32% to 40% from July/August 2018 to September
2020; among those with tertiary education, the share engaged in agriculture
rose from 19% to 44%. The crisis may therefore be leading to a misallocation of
workers, which does not make the best use of previous investments in human
capital.
Continuing Economic Precariousness
The
labor market conditions observed in Round 5 of the NLPS emphasize that the
economic precariousness observed in previous rounds of the survey is
continuing. In August 2020, 67% of households reported that their incomes were
lower than a year before, while in July 2020 around 69% of those households
that experienced shocks since the outbreak of COVID-19 reported reducing their
food consumption (alongside other negative coping strategies). Since Round 5
suggests that the share of people who are working is lower than before the
crisis - especially for women and for the lowest quintile - and that workers
have been switching between different sectors, it appears that Nigerian
households' incomes and consumption remain precarious.
Related Links
1.
NBS Publishes COVID-19 Impact
Monitoring Survey Report for August 2020
2.
NBS
Publishes Nigeria's Rapid Data Mobilization Against COVID-19
3.
NBS
Publishes COVID-19 Impact Monitoring Survey Report for July 2020
4.
NBS
Publishes COVID-19 Impact Monitoring Survey Report for June 2020
5.
NBS
Publishes COVID-19 Impact Monitoring Survey Report for May 2020
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