Local Competitiveness: A Prerequisite for Inclusive Growth

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Wednesday, November 07, 2018 05:19 PM / FSDH

 

FSDH Research just released its monthly Economic and Financial Market Outlook Report for the month of November 2018.

 

The major highlights of the report are:

 

Domestic Scene:

  • FSDH Research believes that infrastructure development is critical for the sustainable growth of the Nigerian economy
  • Adequate and functional infrastructure will have a multiplier effect on the growth of the economy and should attract investment into the non-oil sector
  • The Global Competitive Report (GCR) 2018 released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) on 16 October 2018 rates Nigeria’s overall score in 2018 at 48 points out of a possible total of 100
  • Governments at all levels need to prioritise investment in human capital in order to improve Nigeria’s competitiveness
  • Specifically, Nigeria needs quality education that will equip the workforce with the skills needed for the fourth industrial revolution, commonly referred to as ‘the digital revolution’
  • Given the FGN’s revenue constraints, we believe partnership arrangements with the private sector can be a cost-effective funding model for infrastructure development in Nigeria
  • The short-term forecast for the Nigerian economy is unimpressive, according to the latest report issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
  • FSDH Research believes the Nigerian economy has the potential to perform better than the IMF’s forecast
  • For this to materialise, however, coordinated policies are urgently required in the following areas to achieve strong and inclusive growth: security of lives and property, infrastructure, rule of law, and diversification of the revenue and productive base of the economy
  • FSDH Research forecasts that the inflation rate for October 2018 will trend upwards to 11.34% on account of high food prices, largely due to a drop in food supply
  • The short-term inflation outlook means that monetary policy stance will remain tight
  • Capital flight as a result of rising global yields is weighing down the external reserves
  • The CBN has increased the yields on Treasury Bills to reduce capital flight. It may adopt additional rate increase until demand pressure for foreign exchange abates
  • The investors’ apathy that dominated the equity market in Q3 2018 continued in October
  • Looking at the oversold position in the equity market, the equity market may appreciate in November 2018.

 

 

International Scene:

  • Economic developments in the US support a further hike in interest rate
  • FSDH Research expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December 2018
  • FSDH Research’s analysis of the latest Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) view of the global economy should support strong crude oil price (around US$70/b)
  • OPEC notes that the major threats to the global economy are: monetary tightening, the weakening financial situations in some emerging and developing economies, rising trade tensions, and ongoing geopolitical concerns in some parts of the world.

 

Please click here to download the strategy report for the month of November 2018.


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