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Running Faster to Stand Still – LBS EBS – Dec 2016

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Wednesday, December 14, 2016 4:58 AM / fdc

2016 will be remembered as one year when everything went wrong….from stagflation to recession, oil price shock, production cuts and oil theft culminated in a fiscal and external crisis.

Inertia, vested interests and a forex market in disequilibrium helped to send the economy into a tailspin. 

Now there appears to be a flicker of hope at the end of the tunnel (an optimism not shared by all but hoped for), that 2017 will be a year of hope where growth is projected at 1.7%. The $1bn Eurobond issue will be closed in Q1 and a budget expansion of 20% will be presented to the legislature. 

All of these and other issues are contained in This Year Ahead Edition of the LBS Breakfast Executive Meeting, Bismarck Rewane & the FDC think tank, argue that timing will be everything in 2017 as we run faster in order to standstill. 

Outline of Presentation 

1.       Economic Snapshot

2.      The New Global Order

3.      Outlook for 2017: Indicators, Proxies & Markets

4.      Impact on the Economy

5.      Policy Response: Choices & Actions

6.      Political Imponderables

7.      Combative Regulation: A Constraint to Investment 

Key HIGHLIGHTS: 

 

DIAGNOSTIC SNAPSHOT - December 2016

 

 

Path to Recovery 

 

  

THINGS THAT WILL CHANGE SLOWLY 

 

 

QUESTIONS THAT NEEDS SINCERE ANSWERS  

1.       Will Nigeria accept private sector participation & leadership?

a.      Oil & gas

b.      JVs & refineries

c.       Railways, roads & ports  

2.      Will the markets be allowed to be efficient?

a.      In pricing and allocation of resources

b.      Subsidy elimination or not?  

3.      Will Nigeria eat the humble pie and accept an IMF program?  

4.      Will Nigeria accept and adopt an aggressive borrowing plan to address:

a.      Infrastructure gap: $360bn

b.      Debt service burden:N1.36trn

c.       Trade gap: -$2.9bn

d.      Budget Deficit: N2.2trn  

5.      Will Nigeria accept to be a collaborative rather than a combative regulatory environment?  

6.      Will Nigeria accept a low tax but high revenue market?  

7.      Will Nigeria be able to contain and combat or constructively engage the Niger Delta militants?

a.      And its impact on oil production, revenue and government expenditure and deficit  

8.     How will the engagement of Boko Haram and Islamic fundamentalists in the North East & North Central progress?

a.      Both zones make up 28% of the population

Nigeria 2017 – THE NEW ECONOMIC REALITY 

 


Click here to DOWNLOAD the report/presentation  

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